Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD steady above the 20-DMA and $1850

• Gold begins the week on a positive tone, up by some 0.20%.
• Holiday in the US to keep prices within a tighter range amid a busy US economic calendar week.
• Fed’s Waller support 50 bps hikes for “several meetings.”
• Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD): Steady above the 50-DMA, but it needs a break above $1871 to aim towards $1889.91.

Gold spot (XAU/USD) advances during the New York session amid thin liquidity conditions, courtesy of the observation of the Memorial Day in the US, meaning stocks and bonds would not trade until Tuesday. At $1856.05, XAU/USD reflects decent demand for the non-yielding metal at the time of writing.

Sentiment has improved since Monday’s Asian open. China reported the fewest coronavirus cases in almost three months. Shanghai and Beijing are preparing to ease some strict measures, moving to stimulate the economy, which has been hit severely by the Covid-19 zero-tolerance restrictions. Meanwhile, inflation worries are back, as Germany reported high inflationary readings at all-time-highs, at 8.7% YoY, sparking renewed fears of elevated prices and an aggressive approach of the ECB.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value vs. a basket of peers, is losing traction and aims towards April’s 21 low at 99.818, down 0.24% in the day. Meanwhile, the US 10-year T-note rate remains parked at Friday’s close of 2.743%.

Of late, Fed’s Governor Christopher Waller crossed wires. He said he supports 50 bps for “several meetings,” and he’s not taking 50 bps off the table until inflation closes to the 2% target. Furthermore, inflation is “stubbornly high,” and the Fed would need to be prepared to do more, Waller said. It’s worth noting that regarding the balance sheet reduction, he noted that it’s equivalent to a couple of 25 bps rate hikes.

An absent US economic docket would keep Gold traders leaning on market sentiment and the economic data revealed in the week ahead. The US economic calendar would feature the US ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, US employment data, led by the Nonfarm Payrolls, and the ADP and JOLTs openings report.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD): Technical outlook

The bright metal has an upward bias, taking advantage of recent US Dollar weakness in the last couple of weeks. Once gold traders reclaimed the 20-day moving average (DMA) last Friday, the XAU/USD fluctuated in the $1840-67 range, unable to break above $1870. Break above the latter would send gold for a re-test of March’s lows at around 1889.91, which also intersects with the bottom Bollinger’s band, followed by $1900.

Key Technical Levels