Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drops to near $1,760, upside looks likely, US ISM eyed

• Gold price is likely to remain upbeat on lower consensus for US NFP.
• A higher estimate for US ISM New Orders Index indicates higher forward demand by households.
• The precious metal has established above 38.2% Fibo retracement comfortably.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is continuously facing barricades while attempting to recapture the critical resistance of $1,770.00. The precious metal has dragged to near $1,760.00 but is likely to pick bids and initiate a fresh bullish impulse wave ahead.

The gold prices are likely to remain upbeat on expectations of downbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) this week. As per the market consensus, the US economy has added 250K jobs in the labor market against the prior release of 372k. A downbeat performance is expected from the economic data as various US tech companies have halted their recruitment process as revealed in their second-quarter earnings commentary. Also, the Unemployment Rate is seen as stable at 3.6%.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is facing barricades around 105.80 ahead of US ISM data. The Manufacturing PMI is seen lower at 52 vs. 53 in the prior release. While, the New Orders index, which indicates forward demand by the households is expected to jump to 52 from the prior release of 49.2.

Gold technical analysis

On a four-hour scale, gold prices are establishing above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (which is placed from June 12 high at $1,879.26 to July 21 low at $1,680.91) at $1,756.21. An establishment above 38.6% Fibo retracement bolsters the upside potential.

The precious metal is facing hurdles in overstepping the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,763.19. Also, the 50-EMA at $1,738.51 is advancing higher, which adds to the upside filters.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates a continuation of bullish momentum ahead.

Gold four-hour chart