EUR/USD retreats towards 1.0200 on downbeat German Retail Sales ahead of US ISM PMI

• EUR/USD pares daily gains after softer-than-expected German Retail Sales for June.
• Firmer Eurozone GDP, strong inflation data couldn’t please bulls amid hawkish Fedspeak, upbeat US Core PCE deflator figures.
• Risks of Eurozone recession, Sino-American tussles paused US dollar bears amid sluggish session.
• Eurozone PMI and Unemployment Rate will precede US ISM Manufacturing PMI to entertain intraday traders.

EUR/USD drops to 1.0215 as it reverses intraday gains after downbeat German Retail Sales data during early Monday morning in Europe. Also contributing to the major currency pair’s fresh declines is the sluggish session and cautious mood ahead of this week’s key US employment data and a mild risk-aversion wave.

Germany’s Retail Sales dropped 8.8% YoY in June versus -8.0% market consensus and -3.6% prior.

Recent data from the bloc’s powerhouse pours cold water on the face of recovery hopes after Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) offered a surprise positive on Friday, with +0.7% QoQ figure compared to 0.2% expected and 0.6% previous.

Also weighing on the EUR/USD prices could be Russia’s halt in gas supplies to Latvia. Additionally, the latest hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari and a firmer print of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge are also likely to have extended downside pressure on the pair.

It’s worth noting that the market’s pause in the risk-on mood is also likely to have underpinned the US dollar’s safe-haven demand and tease the pair sellers. The sour sentiment could be linked to the PMIs from China and Beijing’s warning to the US, concerning US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Asia visit.

While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures retreat from the monthly peak, down 0.45% intraday, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields rise three basis points (bps) to 2.67% by the press time.

Moving on, the final reading of the Eurozone S&P Global PMI for July and Unemployment Rate for June may entertain EUR/USD traders ahead of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July, expected at 52 versus 53 prior.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD remains inside the one-month-old ascending triangle amid a firmer RSI. However, sellers can aim for the 1.0200 threshold as intraday support before challenging a convergence of the 100-SMA and an upward sloping support line from July 14, around 1.0145, challenging the quote’s further downside. Meanwhile, recovery moves remain elusive below the aforementioned triangle’s upper line, close to 1.0275-80.