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- ECB likey to hike 50 bps at this juncture – Rabobank
ECB likey to hike 50 bps at this juncture – Rabobank
Analysts at Rabobank think that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to raise the policy rate by 50 basis points in December but note that they are not fully discounting the possibility of a 75 bps hike.
We maintain our forecast of a 3% terminal rate
"Despite a first easing of headline inflation, core inflation is still high and will slow the convergence of inflation back to target. The new staff projections will include a 2025 forecast, but given recent forecast errors the ECB should err on the side of caution as long as upside inflation risks remain."
"A slower rate path does not mean a lower terminal rate. Conveying this message will be a key challenge for President Lagarde. Details on quantitative tightening may steal the limelight.
"We maintain our forecast of a 3% terminal rate. As such, we have extended our policy expectations with a final 25bp hike in April. We could see quantitative tightening run at a monthly pace of €25-30bn, and we have pencilled in a Q2 start date."
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