- Analytics
- News and Tools
- Market News
- Fed: Inflation data raises conviction that July will be the final hike – ABN Amro
Fed: Inflation data raises conviction that July will be the final hike – ABN Amro
The disinflation trend continued in June. While this will not derail a July Fed hike, it increases ABN Amro’s conviction that this will be the final rate rise.
June disinflation will not derail a July Fed hike
While the Fed will welcome further disinflationary progress, the June CPI report is unlikely to prevent the FOMC from hiking by another 25bp when it meets on 24-25 July, given the stickiness in labour-intensive services inflation and the broader resilience in other macro indicators in the US.
However, the report gives us greater conviction that July will be the last hike of the current cycle, with a September hike looking unlikely assuming current data trends persist. Our base case continues to be for the Fed to start cutting rates next March. Still, we continue to see a risk that stickier services inflation keeps broader price growth above the Fed’s target in the medium term, with the risk therefore tilted towards rates staying restrictive for longer.
© 2000-2025. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
Bank transfers
