CEE: FX remains rather muted in EUR-crosses – ING

After the inflation numbers in Hungary and the Czech Republic, this morning we also saw the numbers in Romania. November inflation rose from 4.7% to 5.1%, slightly above market expectations, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The complete inflation picture

“Although inflation should fall again in the coming months, we see the National Bank of Romania returning to rate cuts in the second quarter of next year at the earliest. However, for now, the main theme remains the fiscal and political situation after the election in Romania. This is probably the NBR's focus for now as well and inflation is more of a secondary theme.”

“Market attention should shift to the sovereign bond auctions in Poland and the Czech Republic before the end of the year. In both cases, we should see lower supply in December than in previous months supporting bond valuations. However, weak demand remains an issue in Poland, which should indicate an outlook for next year where supply will remain heavy.”

“FX remains rather muted in EUR-crosses where the Hungarian forint saw some retracement of previous fast gains. The Polish zloty and Czech Republic koruna remain fairly priced versus rates for now in our view. However, we see more CEE weakness against USD crosses coming from the EUR/USD dip, which remains our view since the US election.”