Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 05-09-2012.

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05.09.2012

17:40

American focus: euro rose

The euro rose against most of its 16 major peers after two central bank officials said European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will announce unlimited sterilized bond buying to quell the region’s debt crisis.

The 17-nation currency climbed to a two-month high against the dollar last week amid optimism Draghi would announce additional monetary stimulus at tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

Under the ECB blueprint, which may be called “Monetary Outright Transactions,” the ECB would refrain from setting a public cap on yields, according to the central bankers, and a third official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The plan will only focus on government bonds rather than a broader range of assets and will target short-dated maturities of up to about three years, two of the people said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers she can accept temporary ECB bond buying, according to a member of her party. German legislator Norbert Barthle said in Berlin that Merkel spoke in a closed-door meeting of Christian Democratic Union lawmakers.

Germany’s Constitutional Court is set to rule on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism, the euro region’s permanent bailout fund, on Sept. 12. The ECB may delay giving full details of Draghi’s bond-buying plan until after the ruling, two central bank officials said on Aug. 24.

Australia’s currency dropped to a seven-week low after the economy expanded less than forecast.

15:43

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble: "To expect that the ECB will monitor all European banks - is unrealistic"

- The ECB is to ensure that would be acting within its mandate

- Governments can not influence the decisions of the Central Bank

- Can not see a conflict between Draghi and Weidmann

- Refused to comment on the ECB

15:31

Fitch affirms Canada at AAA, outlook stable

15:02

EUR / USD Euro updated intraday high of $ 1.2623 and retreated. The nearest support - $ 1.2545 (MA 200 for H1)

13:48

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2525, $1.2530, $1.2550, $1.2585, $1.2650

USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.60

EUR/JPY Y99.00, Y97.70, Y97.60

GBP/USD $1.5825

EUR/GBP stg0.7940

AUD/USD $1.0250

EUR/SEK Sek8.40, Sek8.4240, Sek8.4390

13:00

Canada: Bank of Canada Rate, 1.00% (forecast 1.00%)

12:30

U.S.: Nonfarm Productivity, q/q, Quarter II +2.2% (forecast +1.8%)

12:16

European session: the euro recovers

Data
01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter II +1.3% +0.9% +0.6%
01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter II +4.3% +3.7% +3.7%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) August -0.5% +0.1% 0.0%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) August -0.7% -0.4% -0.5%
07:50 France Services PMI (finally) August 50.2 50.2 49.2
07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) August 48.3 48.3 48.3
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) August 47.5 47.5 47.2
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) July +0.1% -0.2% -0.2%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) July -1.2% -1.7% -1.7%

The euro fell against the dollar on speculation that the measures to be announced by the European Central Bank tomorrow will not be able to restore confidence in the region.

At the beginning of the session the Euro was down against the dollar on speculation that the measures to be announced by the European Central Bank tomorrow will not be able to restore confidence in the region. The single currency also fell against the yen after a report on the euro area showed that retail sales fell in July, led by Germany. According to EU statistics, the volume of retail sales decreased by 0.2% in July, a separate report showed that the index of purchasing managers in the services sector fell to 47.2 in August from 47.9 in July, indicating a contraction. The dollar strengthened as investors sought safer assets.

But despite the decline, the euro managed to recover and showed a sharp rise amid comments by ECB President Draghi, who said that the ECB will refrain from setting a fixed yield.

The pound strengthened against the dollar since the published data showed that the index of business activity in the UK services sector rose to 53.7 in August, compared with expectations at 51.2 and the level of 51.0 in July.

The Australian dollar fell to a seven-week low after it became known that the GDP rose less than expected by analysts.

Gross domestic product expanded by 0.6% in the three months to June, compared with the previous quarter, when it rose a revised 1.4%. Economists average stood at 0.7%.

The dollar index (DXY), which is used to track the value of the dollar against six major currencies, added 0.2% to 81.472.

EUR/USD: during the European session the pair reached a low of $ 1.2500, followed by the rapid growth
GBP/USD: the pair grown, updating the yesterday's high, and is now approaching the maximum values in August
USD/JPY: the pair grown by updating yesterday's high, but then backed away from the values achieved and set a new low

At 12:30 GMT the United States will change in the level of labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector for the 2nd quarter. At 13:00 GMT we will know the decision of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate will be done the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada.

11:31

Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2650, $1.2600

Bids $1.2500, $1.2495/90, $1.2470, $1.2450, $1.2430

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5980, $1.5950, $1.5920

Bids $1.5805/00, $1.5780/70, $1.5755/40, $1.5720, $1.5705/00

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0300, $1.0250, $1.0230/35

Bids $1.0150, $1.0125/20, $1.0100, $1.0080, $1.0050

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8015/20, stg0.8000, stg0.7980, stg0.7955

Bids stg0.7890, stg0.7875/70, stg0.7860/50

EUR/JPY

Offers Y99.45/50, Y99.00, Y98.80, Y98.55/60

Bids Y97.85/80, Y97.50, Y97.20, Y97.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y78.90, Y78.80, Y78.60, Y78.50/55

Bids Y78.20/15, Y78.10/00, Y77.80

09:31

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2525, $1.2530, $1.2550, $1.2585, $1.2650

USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.60

EUR/JPY Y99.00, Y97.70, Y97.60

GBP/USD $1.5825

EUR/GBP stg0.7940

AUD/USD $1.0250

EUR/SEK Sek8.40, Sek8.4240, Sek8.4390

09:00

Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY), July -1.7% (forecast -1.7%)

09:00

Eurozone: Retail Sales (MoM), July -0.2% (forecast -0.2%)

07:58

Eurozone: Services PMI, August 47.2 (forecast 47.5)

07:55

Asian session: The euro fell

01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter II +1.3% +0.9% +0.6%

01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter II +4.3% +3.7% +3.7%

The euro fell for second day before the European Central Bank meets tomorrow to discuss measures to tackle the region’s debt crisis. ECB President Mario Draghi told lawmakers in a closed-door session in Brussels this week the bank’s primary mandate compels it to intervene in bond markets to ensure the euro’s survival.
The 17-nation currency remained lower versus most of its major counterparts before data forecast to show retail sales declined and services contracted in the euro area. A final reading of an index based on a survey of purchasing managers in services industries in the euro area may confirm a drop to 47.5 in August from 47.9 a month earlier, below the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before Markit Economics releases its figures today.
Germany’s Constitutional Court is set to rule on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism, the euro region’s permanent bailout fund, on Sept. 12. The ECB may delay giving full details of Draghi’s bond-buying plan until after the ruling, two central bank officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, said on Aug. 24.
The Australian dollar touched a six-week low after the government reported second- quarter gross domestic product grew less than analysts expected.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.2520.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell, approaching week’s low.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y78.55.

This morning in Europe sees the services PMI releases from the main European states with Spain at 0713GMT, Italy at 0743GMT and final numbers from France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the main EMU data at 0758GMT. EMU data at 0900GMT is expected to see retail trade for July come in at -0.3% m/m, -1.8% y/y. UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI data was due at 0828GMT and was expected to come in at 51.0 with little boost expected from the Olympics. US data for Wednesday starts at 1100GMT with the MBA Mortgage Application Index, while at 1145GMT, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data is due. At 1230GMT, US nonfarm productivity is forecast to be revised up to a 1.9% rise in the second quarter, as the output component should be adjusted up slightly. The weekly Redbook Average is due at 1255GMT. At 1300GMT, the Bank of Canada rate announcement is expected to deliver an unchanged decision but the market will be focused on any softening of recent language seen giving a tightening-bias.