Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 06-11-2018.

The number of job openings decreased to 7.0 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were both little changed at 5.7 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4 percent and the layoffs
and discharges rate was little changed at 1.1 percent. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.

The national increase was driven by higher construction intentions in Quebec.

The value of building permits in the non-residential sector was up 0.6% to $3.1 billion in September, due to higher construction intentions for institutional buildings.

In the institutional component, the value of building permits rose 16.4% from August to $806 million. The increase in the value of permits mainly stemmed from post-secondary institutions and nursing homes. Six provinces reported gains, led by Quebec.

In the commercial component, $1.7 billion worth of permits were issued in September, down 3.3% from the previous month. Permits for office buildings accounted for the majority of the decline. Five provinces reported decreases, with the largest drop in British Columbia.

The value of building permits in the industrial component fell 5.7% to $636 million. Five provinces reported declines, with the most significant decreases in Quebec and British Columbia.

• Shares in Morrisons top the FTSE 100 fallers, down 4.9% after the U.K. grocer's third-quarter sales fell short of market hopes.

In September 2018, compared with August 2018, industrial producer prices rose by 0.5% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.6% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In August 2018, prices increased by 0.4% in both zones. In September 2018, compared with September 2017, industrial producer prices rose by 4.5% in the euro area and by 4.9% in the EU28.

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in September 2018, compared with August 2018, rose by 1.6% in the energy sector and by 0.1% for intermediated goods, while prices remained stable for capital goods and for durable and non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 0.1%.

October saw the euro area economy expand at its slowest rate for more than two years, according to the final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index. Despite coming in higher than the earlier flash estimate of 52.7, October’s final reading of 53.1 was down from the previous month’s 54.1 to the lowest since September 2016.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Eurozone companies reported a disappointing start to the fourth quarter. Business activity is growing at its slowest rate for over two years and expectations have slumped to the bleakest since the end of 2014. “An export-led slowdown, linked to growing trade tensions and tariffs, has been exacerbated by rising political uncertainty, growing risk aversion and tightening financial conditions. The slowdown has consequently become more broad-based to increasingly envelop the services economy. “While the PMI numbers hint at an upward revision to the 0.2% flash estimate of third quarter GDP growth, it’s clear that the economy has slowed and that the weakness has intensified into the fourth quarter”.

The pace of expansion nevertheless remained robust, and job creation continued to run at one of the quickest rates seen over the past 11 years. Business confidence, however, was at its lowest in nearly two years, reflecting concerns over signs of a slowdown in economic growth, rising global uncertainties and skill shortages.

The headline seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 54.7 in October, down from September’s eight-month high of 55.9 and its lowest reading since July (but above the earlier ‘flash’ estimate of 53.6). The index was above its long-run average and signalled the continuation of a record sequence of growth that began in mid-2013.

The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit France Services Business Activity Index rose from 54.8 in September to 55.3 in October. The latest sharp increase extended the current run of expansion to 28 months. Panellists often mentioned strong demand conditions when explaining business activity growth. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit France Composite Output Index, a GDP-weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index registered 54.1, up slightly from a 21-month low of 54.0 in September.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index recorded a level of 54.0 in October. That was an improvement on the previous month’s 52.5 and represented the strongest growth since June. Activity has now increased in each month throughout the past five years.

Commenting on the PMI data, Paul Smith, Economics Director at IHS Markit said: “Following earlier data showing the stabilisation of the manufacturing economy, there was also a welcome upturn in service sector activity during October, raising hopes that the recent slide in economic growth has been arrested. “Overall composite output subsequently increased at the best rate since June and suggests that GDP growth is tracking at a level of around 0.5% at the start of the fourth quarter. “Such an increase in GDP would be a decent level of growth heading into 2019, especially as downside risks to the outlook are building. Indeed, private sector business confidence slipped to its lowest level in over five years during October as the global economic environment turns increasingly chilly.”

• Comments On Eve Of US Midterm Elections

• Progress in unemployment and inflation is expected to be gradual

• Housing markets slowed down in Sydney and Melbourne

• Lending conditions are tougher than they have been for some time

• GDP growth is slightly revised for 2018 and 2019

• Australian dollar remains in the range of the last two years

• GDP growth will average 3.5% in 2018 and 2019, but slow down in 2020

• The central inflation scenario is 2.25% in 2019, a higher one in 2020

• Positive business conditions

• Public infrastructure investments support the economy

• Household consumption is a source of uncertainty.

• Labor market outlook remains positive

• Wage growth remains low, expect further growth over time

• A further gradual reduction in unemployment is expected to 4.75% in 2020

Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had increased in September 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.3% on the previous month. For August 2018, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 2.5% compared with July 2018 (primary +2.0%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in September 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 1.6% on the previous month.

Domestic orders increased by 2.8% and foreign orders decreased by 1.4% in September 2018 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 2.4%, new orders from other countries decreased 3.7% compared to August 2018.

In September 2018 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders fall by 1.7% compared with August 2018. The manufacturers of capital goods showed increases of 1.4% on the previous month. For consumer goods, an increase in new orders of 2.1% was recorded.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1528 (3024)

$1.1500 (1884)

$1.1480 (2286)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1403

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1375 (4182)

$1.1337 (3950)

$1.1293 (3191)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 95086 contracts (according to data from November, 5) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (4612);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3223 (2508)

$1.3155 (1358)

$1.3112 (1229)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3049

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2996 (2480)

$1.2964 (3341)

$1.2927 (1340)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 19 is 27836 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3172);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 33481 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3341);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.20 versus 1.12 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 5

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.