Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 08-11-2018.

• 20% Drop From Recent High Ends WTI's Longest Bull Market Since 2008

In September, new home buyers in 20 of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed saw flat or decreasing prices. Increased mortgage rates, along with tighter mortgage regulations, have coincided with slowing demand for new homes across Canada.

New home prices fell the most in St. John's and Hamilton (both down 0.4%), and Halifax and Saskatoon (both down 0.3%). Builders in all four CMAs reported unfavourable market conditions as the primary reason for the price decline.

The largest price increases in September were in London (+0.5%), and Vancouver and Sherbrooke (both up 0.4%). Builders in London reported that increased construction costs were pushing up prices. In Vancouver, builders returned to list prices after some discounting in previous months. In Sherbrooke, builders reported higher prices for new phases of development.

In the week ending November 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 213,750 to 214,000.

The trend in housing starts was 206,171 units in October 2018, compared to 207,809 units in September 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

"The national trend in housing starts declined for a fourth consecutive month in October, which leaves the trend at its lowest level since February 2017," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "However, despite declining for several months, the trend remains slightly above its long-run average because it follows historically elevated levels of activity in 2017."

They will likely discuss the economy, financial markets and the future path of rates, among other topics.

This will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's last meeting without a press conference afterward.

The central bank issues a policy statement at 2 p.m. ET, and officials aren't releasing new economic projections.

Employers have added jobs at a steady pace, likely firming Fed officials' plans to raise rates in December. Their statement should again describe the labor market as strong.

On the other hand, the interest-rate sensitive housing sector is slowing amid rising mortgage rates. And business investment was surprisingly soft during the third quarter.

Officials' September statement stopped describing rates as "accommodative," or low enough to stimulate the economy. Mr. Powell said then that rates were still accommodative, but the language had grown stale because it no longer said anything meaningful about policy going forward.

The challenge ahead is to parse financial and economic developments to determine whether rates are edging closer to a neutral setting that neither spurs nor slows growth.

• Sees Eurozone Inflation Rate Easing to 1.6% in 2020

• EU Gave Its Previous Growth, Inflation Forecasts in July

• Holds Eurozone Unemployment Forecasts at 8.4% in 2018, 7.9% in 2019

• Eurozone Budget Deficit at 0.6% in 2018, Down From 0.7% Previously

• Cuts Italy 2018 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.1% From 1.3%

• Sees Italy 2020 GDP Growth at 1.3%

• Eurozone Economy to Cool in Coming Years as Risks Mount

• Keeps Eurozone 2018 Economic Growth Forecast at 2.1%

• Eurozone Economic Growth Slowing Further to 1.7% in 2020

• Sees U.S. Overheating, Faster Fed Rate Rises as Fresh Risks

• Also Cites Trade Tensions, Higher Energy Prices, Policy Uncertainty as Risks

• Raises Italy 2019 Growth Forecast to 1.2% From 1.1%

• Cuts Germany 2018 Growth Forecast to 1.7% From 1.9%

• Short-term indicators point to continued strength in the labour market

• Private consumption expected to display resilient growth in the coming quarters

• Risks to global growth are to the downside due to trade restrictions

*via forexlive

• I Have No View On The NZD's Level, Kiwi Dollar Has Been Well Behaved

• Core Inflation Still Below Mid-Point Of Target

“The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent. We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and into 2020.

There are both upside and downside risks to our growth and inflation projections. As always, the timing and direction of any future OCR move remains data dependent.

The pick-up in GDP growth in the June quarter was partly due to temporary factors, and business surveys continue to suggest growth will be soft in the near term. Employment is around its maximum sustainable level. However, core consumer price inflation remains below our 2 percent target mid-point, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy.

GDP growth is expected to pick up over 2019. Monetary stimulus and population growth underpin household spending and business investment. Government spending on infrastructure and housing also supports domestic demand. The level of the New Zealand dollar exchange rate will support export earnings.

As capacity pressures build, core consumer price inflation is expected to rise to around the mid-point of our target range at 2 percent.

Downside risks to the growth outlook remain. Weak business sentiment could weigh on growth for longer. Trade tensions remain in some major economies, raising the risk that trade barriers increase and undermine global growth”.

• Had Valuable, Full And Candid Discussions With China

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1561 (5397)

$1.1527 (2760)

$1.1496 (2125)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1427

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1394 (3856)

$1.1348 (5257)

$1.1299 (3119)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 97514 contracts (according to data from November, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1550 (5397);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3234 (2481)

$1.3208 (1774)

$1.3175 (1177)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3119

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3079 (2384)

$1.3039 (2448)

$1.2995 (4383)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 19 is 28262 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3172);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 35568 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4383);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.26 versus 1.22 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

China's exports and imports increased more-than-expected in October, according to rttnews.

Exports grew 15.6 percent annually, the General Administration of Customs reported. Economists had forecast an increase of 11.7 percent.

At the same time, imports surged 21.4 percent compared to the forecast of 14.7 percent.

As a result, the trade surplus came in at $34 billion in October versus the expected level of $35.1 billion.

In yuan terms, imports advanced 26.3 percent and exports climbed 20.1 percent from last year. The trade surplus totaled CNY 233.6 billion.

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, at the end of October 2018 there were 107,315 unemployed registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 729 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 2.4% in the month under review. Compared with the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by 27,485 persons (-20.4%). Youth unemployment in October 2018 Youth unemployment (15-24 year-olds) decreased by 660 people (-4.8%) to 13'064.

Germany exported goods to the value of 109.1 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 90.7 billion euros in September 2018. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports declined by 1.2%, while imports increased by 5.3% in September 2018 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were down 0.8% and imports declined 0.4% compared with August 2018.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.4 billion euros in September 2018. In September 2017, the surplus amounted to 24.2 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 17.6 billion euros in September 2018.

According to provisional results of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of 21.1 billion euros in September 2018, which takes into account the balances of trade in goods including supplementary trade items (+19.7 billion euros), services (-1.8 billion euros), primary income (+6.8 billion euros) and secondary income (-3.6 billion euros). In September 2017, the German current account showed a surplus of 26.9 billion euros.