Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 08-08-2018.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the economy of India is gaining momentum, and growth prospects look optimistic.

Ranil Salgado, the head of the IMF team in India, said that the economy of India is projected to grow to around 7.3% during the current financial year, beginning in April 2018, from 6.7% recorded a year ago.

At the same time, inflation in the country grew partly because of the decline in the economic recession.

According to Salgado, the tax on goods and services should increase productivity and promote medium-term potential growth, and also provoke the government to increase much-needed social and infrastructure costs.

He added that India should intensify its reform efforts in order to maintain the current positive growth rate.

Spain's industrial production grew at a slower pace in June, the statistical office INE said Wednesday, cited by rttnews.

Industrial output rose by adjusted 0.5 percent annually after expanding 1.3 percent in May.

On an unadjusted basis, industrial production fell 2 percent, in contrast to a 1.3 percent rise a month ago.

Month-on-month, industrial output dropped 0.6 percent in June, reversing May's 0.8 percent rise.

Bernstein analysts say the Anglo-Swiss miner and commodities trader is starting to see cost inflation creeping in, as across the industry, after Glencore flagged higher-than-expected copper- and zinc-mine costs.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1754 (3502)

$1.1703 (1519)

$1.1670 (2762)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1613

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1552 (3065)

$1.1525 (4024)

$1.1493 (5235)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 121937 contracts (according to data from August, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (10465);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3109 (2012)

$1.3080 (743)

$1.3033 (511)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2933

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2896 (1263)

$1.2876 (2763)

$1.2851 (2221)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 7 is 30612 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3450 (3338);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 26935 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (3082);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.88 versus 0.82 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 7.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Opinions on Economic and Financial Developments:

• Japan's economy is expanding moderately, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending operating. Going forward, it is likely to continue expanding, mainly against the background of highly accommodative financial conditions and the underpinnings through government spending.

• Japan's economy is expanding moderately. In fiscal 2018, the economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential. From fiscal 2019 onward, the growth pace is projected to decelerate temporarily, due mainly to the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike, and recover gradually thereafter.

• As uncertainties for the time being, it is necessary to pay attention to the effects on economic activity of the heavy rain in July and the record-breaking heat wave continuing nationwide.

• With regard to the risk balance in the global economy, there likely are growing downside risks stemming from trade friction between such economies as the United States and China as well as from currency fluctuations.

• The effects on the global economy of the depreciation of emerging economies' currencies as well as the developments in policy rate hikes in those economies warrant close attention.

• Escalation of trade war could be damaging for the global economy

• Says RBA does not target house prices but a period of moderation is needed

• Most likely economy continue on current track

• Hope I can raise interest rates at some point in my term

• Not looking to review the inflation target any time soon

• Confident will get back to 2.5% inflation, will take time

June 2018 compared with May 2018:

• The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 0.7%. Owner occupied housing commitments fell 0.2% and investment housing commitments fell 1.8%.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 1.6%.

June 2018 compared with May 2018:

• In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance fell 0.5% in June 2018.

• In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 1.1%, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings fell 0.4% and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings fell 0.4%.

• In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 18.1% in June 2018 from 17.6% in May 2018.

China's exports growth exceeded expectations in July, rttnews said.

Exports advanced 12.2 percent year-on-year in July, faster than the 10 percent rise economists had forecast.

At the same time, imports surged 27.3 percent from a year ago versus the expected growth of 16.5 percent.

Looking ahead, Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics said he expects export growth to cool in the coming months, though this will primarily reflect softer global growth rather than US tariffs, the direct impact of which will continue to be mostly offset by the renminbi's recent depreciation.

Japan had a current account surplus of 1.175 trillion yen in June, according to rttnews

That was shy of expectations for 1.222 trillion yen and down from 1.938 trillion yen in May.

The trade balance reflected a surplus of 820.5 billion yen, missing forecasts for 822.0 billion yen following the 303.8 billion yen deficit in the previous month.

The adjusted current account surplus was 1.762 trillion yen, shy of expectations for 1.866 trillion yen and down from 1.850 trillion yen a month earlier.