Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 09-04-2018.

When a car is sent to the United States from China, there is a Tariff to be paid of 2 1/2%. When a car is sent to China from the United States, there is a Tariff to be paid of 25%. Does that sound like free or fair trade. No, it sounds like STUPID TRADE - going on for years!

• No discussion with on specific further easing

• Inappropriate to whittle down stimulus now to create policy room to address future slowdown in growth

• Impact from planned 2019 sales tax hike will be smaller than previous hike in 2014

• Will pay close attention to impact from planned sales tax hike in 2019

• No need to worry too much about economic bust after 2020 olympics

• Told PM Abe that BoJ to do utmost to achieve 2 pct inflation target quickly

All regions of the world are on an economic downturn in April. Despite the still good assessment of the situation, there is no doubt that the global economy is cooling off.

Expectations for the Euro area are negative again for the first time since July 2016. The downward dynamic for Germany is even more pronounced.

The euphoria for the US economy is also fading noticeably. Expectations drop to a value of -7 percentage points. Trump's statements and measures on punitive tariffs raise serious concerns. The component for Expectations of the sentix Global Aggregate falls to its lowest value since February 2016.

• Prices in the last three months to March were 2.7% higher than in the same three months a year earlier, edging up from the 1.8% annual growth recorded in February

• The average price in March was £227,871, the highest recorded price

• House prices in the latest quarter (January-March) were -0.1% lower than in the preceding three months (October-December), the second consecutive decline on this measure

• On a monthly basis, prices grew by 1.5% in March this follows a 0.5% rise in February; monthly changes can be volatile • Mortgages in the UK are at their most affordable level in a decade

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said: "House prices in the three months to March were largely unchanged compared with the previous quarter. The annual rate of growth continues to be in a narrow range of under 3%; though the average price of £227,871 is a new high. "Activity levels, like house price growth, have softened compared with a year ago. Mortgage approvals are down compared to 12 months ago, whilst home sales have remained flat in the early months of the year".

According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of March 2018 130'413 unemployed people were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 13'517 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 3.2% in February 2018 to 2.9% in the month under review. Compared to the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by 21,867 persons (-14.4%). In addition to economic and seasonal components, the technical adjustments in recording the unemployed also had an impact in March.

• Three or four rate hikes this year right "right direction"

• Sees inflation exceeding 2 pct for next few years

• Expects jobless rate to fall to 3.5 pct by next year

• Above-trend growth doesn't necessarily pose a risk at this time

Germany exported goods to the value of 104.7 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 86.3 billion euros in February 2018. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports increased by 2.4% and imports by 4.7% in February 2018 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports fell by 3.2% and imports by 1.3% compared with January 2018.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.4 billion euros in February 2018. In February 2017, the surplus amounted to +19.8 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 19.2 billion euros in February 2018

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2462 (3857)

$1.2412 (1425)

$1.2364 (235)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2274

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2204 (4058)

$1.2167 (3435)

$1.2127 (2274)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 74217 contracts (according to data from April, 6) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2250 (4058);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4222 (2019)

$1.4201 (904)

$1.4170 (883)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4094

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4030 (694)

$1.3975 (1652)

$1.3942 (1802)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 4 is 22837 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3185);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 23763 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (2365);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 1.22 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 6

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.