Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 10-12-2018.

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires edged up to 5.9 million, and separations were little changed at 5.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.1 percent. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.

The decrease was mainly attributable to lower construction intentions for industrial and institutional buildings.

The value of non-residential building permits fell 7.0% in October to $2.9 billion. Eight provinces posted declines, most notably British Columbia.

In the industrial component, the value of building permits fell 29.9% to $439 million, the third consecutive monthly decrease. Declines were reported in nine provinces, with Manitoba the lone province to post an increase.

The value of institutional building permits was down 8.7% in October to $733 million, after posting an increase of 16.7% the previous month. Lower construction intentions for hospitals, post-secondary institutions, and other government buildings were responsible for much of the decrease.

UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third quarter. This profile is unchanged from last month and points to GDP growth of 1.4 per cent in 2018. Growth is being driven by the service sector and a continued robust performance from construction. Manufacturing industry showed no growth in the latest three months.

Garry Young, head of macroeconomic modelling and forecasting at NIESR, said “The latest data confirm that UK GDP growth is slowing after a strong performance in the middle of the year, and the risks appear to be to the downside. Final quarter GDP growth is set to be around 0.4 per cent, in line with potential, and implies that GDP growth for 2018 as a whole will be 1.4 per cent. Growth is being driven by the service and construction sectors. Manufacturing output growth appears to have stalled. Recent service sector surveys have been weak and point to further downside risks.”

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Situation values and expectations are falling equally, even in individual countries such as Germany. The dynamics of the downturn are similar to those of the pre-crisis year 2007. Expectations, as weak as in August 2012, challenge the (monetary) policy.

There are no rays of hope to be reported internationally. In all regions, including the USA, which is accustomed to success, the situation values and expectations collapsed. A further interest rate hike by the Fed or an intensification of the US-China trade dispute seems to be the last thing the global economy needs at the moment.

In the three months to October 2018, services output increased by 0.3% compared with the three months ending July 2018.

The information and communication, and professional, scientific and technical activities sectors were responsible for this growth.

The Index of Services increased by 0.2% between September 2018 and October 2018.

The professional, scientific and technical activities sector made the largest contribution to the month-on-month growth, contributing 0.11 percentage points.

In the three months to October 2018, services output increased by 1.7% compared with the three months ending October 2017.

The total trade deficit (goods and services) widened £3.1 billion in the three months to October 2018; the goods deficit widened £1.7 billion and the services surplus narrowed £1.3 billion.

The widening in the goods deficit was due mainly to a £3.6 billion increase in imports, as exports rose by a lesser £1.9 billion.

Trade in unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) and chemicals had the largest widening effect on the goods deficit, which was partially offset by trade in cars in the three months to October 2018.

The trade in goods deficit widened £3.1 billion with non-EU countries and narrowed £1.4 billion with the EU in the three months to October 2018.

Removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit widened £3.0 billion in the three months to October 2018.

The total trade deficit widened £5.4 billion in the 12 months to October 2018 due mainly to a £5.1 billion narrowing in the trade in services surplus.

The rise of 0.3% in total production output for the three months to October 2018, compared with the three months to July 2018, is due primarily to rises of 1.8% in electricity and gas supply and 2.7% in mining and quarrying.

Three monthly total manufacturing output is flat, with growth in basic metals (1.7%) and transport equipment (1.2%), partially offset by a fall of 2.8% in pharmaceutical products.

In October 2018, total production output fell by 0.6%, compared with September 2018, due to a fall of 0.9% in manufacturing; this was partially offset by a 1.8% increase in mining and quarrying.

The monthly decrease in manufacturing output of 0.9% was due mainly to weakness from transport equipment, falling by 3.2% and pharmaceutical products, falling by 5.0%; 5 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors increased.

Commenting on today’s GDP figures for the three months to October, Head of National Accounts Rob Kent-Smith said:

“GDP growth slowed going into the autumn after a strong summer, with a softening in services sector growth mainly due to a fall in car sales. This was offset by a strong showing from IT and accountancy.

“Manufacturing saw no growth at all in the latest three months, mainly due to a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry. Construction, while slowing slightly, continued its recent solid performance with growth in housebuilding and infrastructure.”

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• U.S. Fiscal Policy Impetus Likely to Fade Going Into 2020

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• Seeing Elevated Vulnerabilities in Non-Financial Business Sector

According to SECO surveys, at the end of November 2018, 110,474 unemployed people were enrolled in the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 3,159 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 2.4% in October 2018 to 2.5% in the month under review. Compared with the same month last year, unemployment fell by 26,843 (-19.5%). Youth unemployment in November 2018 Youth unemployment (aged 15-24) fell by 44 (-0.3%) to 13,020. Compared to the same month of the previous year, this represents a decrease of 3'550 persons (-21.4%).

Germany exported goods to the value of 117.2 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 98.9 billion euros in October 2018. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports increased by 8.5% and imports by 11.3% in October 2018 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were up 0.7% and imports 1.3% compared with September 2018.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.3 billion euros in October 2018. In October 2017, the surplus amounted to 19.1 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 17.3 billion euros in October 2018.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1579 (1309)

$1.1563 (484)

$1.1531 (130)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1437

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1361 (2743)

$1.1323 (5860)

$1.1282 (4248)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 65345 contracts (according to data from December, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1650 (7772);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3044 (1492)

$1.3017 (348)

$1.2970 (112)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2751

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2673 (660)

$1.2650 (544)

$1.2624 (2115)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 7 is 22900 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2352);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 26835 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2710);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 0.80 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.