Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 11-12-2018.

• "The Democrats...for strictly political reasons and because they have been pulled so far left, do NOT want Border Security," he said. "They want Open Borders for anyone to come in."

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 2.5 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
In November, the rise in the final demand index can be traced to a 0.3-percent increase in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods decreased 0.4 percent.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in November, the third consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in November, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded an increase of 6.6 points in December 2018 and now stands at minus 17.5 points. Despite this increase, the indicator is still clearly in negative territory and remains well below the long-term average of 22.5 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany once again decreased considerably in December, with the corresponding indicator falling by 12.9 points to a level of 45.3 points.

“Although the rise in economic expectations is a welcome one, it should not be over-interpreted. The assessment of the economic situation has worsened dramatically for both Germany and the Eurozone. This is indicative of relatively weak economic growth in the fourth quarter. In addition, uncertainties also remain in terms of the looming international trade dispute and Brexit, which have a particularly negative impact on private investment and Germany’s exports,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 3.3%, both excluding and including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1.0% excluding bonuses, and by 1.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between May to July 2018 and August to October 2018, the number of people in work and the number of unemployed people both increased but the number of people aged from 16 to 64 years not working and not seeking nor available to work (economically inactive) decreased.

There were an estimated 32.48 million people in work, 79,000 more than for May to July 2018 and 396,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was estimated at 75.7%, higher than for a year earlier (75.1%) and the joint-highest estimate since comparable estimates began in 1971.

There were an estimated 1.38 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 20,000 more than for May to July 2018 but 49,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all employed and unemployed people) was estimated at 4.1%, virtually unchanged compared with May to July 2018 but lower than the estimate for a year earlier (4.3%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1515 (532)

$1.1484 (316)

$1.1467 (130)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1369

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1338 (2841)

$1.1306 (6183)

$1.1269 (4464)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 66874 contracts (according to data from December, 10) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1650 (7773);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2973 (1500)

$1.2904 (372)

$1.2844 (93)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2574

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2518 (2111)

$1.2478 (1271)

$1.2429 (1335)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 7 is 23238 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2346);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 28384 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2748);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.22 versus 1.17 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 10

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.5% in the September quarter 2018. The index fell 1.9% through the year to the September quarter 2018.

The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Melbourne (-2.6%), Sydney (-1.9%), Perth (-0.6%) and Darwin (-0.9%), and rose in Brisbane (+0.6%), Adelaide (+0.6%), Hobart (+1.3%) and Canberra (+0.5%).

Annually, residential property prices fell in Sydney (-4.4%), Darwin (-4.4%), Melbourne (-1.5%), Perth (-0.5%) and rose in Hobart (+13.0%), Canberra (+3.7%), Adelaide (+2.0%) and Brisbane (+1.7%).

• The 10-year U.S Treasury note yield was mostly unchanged at 2.856%, off the intraday low of 2.868%. The 2-year note yield picked up 1.6 basis points to 2.727%, while the 30-year bond slipped 1.6 basis points to 3.129%, its lowest since Sep. 13. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields

• I have decided to call EUCO on Brexit (Art. 50) on Thursday. We will not renegotiate the deal, including the backstop, but we are ready to discuss how to facilitate UK ratification. As time is running out, we will also discuss our preparedness for a no-deal scenario.

In Q3 2018, net payroll job creation reached +15,000 (that is +0.1%), after +15,900 in the previous quarter. Payroll employment declined again in the public sector (-7,400), and increased slowly again in the private sector (+22,400). Year on year, it rose by 175,100 (that is +0.7%): 197,200 jobs were created in the private sector and 22,100 jobs destroyed in the public service.

Payroll employment remained almost stable in industry in Q3 2018 (– 900, that is 0.0%), showing nonetheless a year on year increase (+4,300).

The growth of payroll employment in construction remained strong: +5,400 (that is +0.4% as in Q2 2018). Year on year, the increase reached +29,100 jobs (that is +2.2%).