Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 13-03-2017.

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence February 10

02:00 China Retail Sales y/y January 10.9% 10.5%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y January 6.0% 6.2%

02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment January 8.1% 8.2%

07:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) February -0.6% 0.6%

07:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) February 1.9% 2.2%

10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) January -1.6% 1.3%

10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment March 17.1

10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) January 2% 0.9%

10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment March 10.4 13

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y February 1.6% 1.9%

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m February 0.6% 0.1%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y February 1.2% 1.5%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m February 0.4% 0.2%

14:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index February 1.3

21:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter IV -4.89 -2.543

23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence March 99.6

• Second covered bond purchase programme total now 6.561 bln euros

• "Very positive" data so far on oil cut compliance, increased from 91 to 95 percent in February according to preliminary data

EURUSD: 1.0550 (EUR 908m) 1.0580 (618m) 1.0600 (1.5bln) 1.0625 (634m) 1.0650 (1.34bln (1.0675-85 (2.38bln) 1.0700 (1.1bln)

USDJPY: 113.50 (USD 730m) 113.80 (396m) 114.00 573m) 114.50 (445m) 114.80 (338m) 115.00 (690m) 115.40 (1.34bln) 116.00 (412m)

GBPUSD 1.2300 (GBP 252m)

EURGBP 0.8650 (EUR 224m)

USDCHF 1.0150 (USD 375m)

AUDUSD: 0.7470 (AUD 228m) 0.7500 (329m) 0.7600 (343m) 0.7600-10 (728m)

USDCAD 1.3330 (USD 382m) 1.3500 (555m) 1.3530 (552m)

NZDUSD 0.6950 (NZD 353m) 0.7000 (NZD 371m)

• I am worried that we are about to enter the next stage of the cycle: a new wave of deregulation

Romania's foreign trade deficit increased in January from a year ago, as imports grew faster than exports, figures from the National Institute of Statistics showed, cited by rttnews.

The trade deficit widened to EUR 602.2 million in January from EUR 379.7 million in the corresponding month last year.

Exports climbed 13.6 percent year-over-year in January and imports surged by 17.4 percent.

On a monthly basis, exports rose 8.6 percent in January, while imports declined by 3.9 percent.

"As markets have started to price in more rate hikes by the Fed this year, spreads have moved further in favour of the US and seen the C$ weaken against the greenback,notes CIBC World Markets.

In this regards, CIBC argues that even though a Fed hike next week is now fully priced, there's still scope for US yields to move a little higher over the coming months.

Meanwhile, given the potential for Canadian growth to cool a little and with the BoC Governor unlikely to change his dovish tune for a while yet, yields should be more grounded in Canada. That would see the C$ weaken and USDCAD reach 1.39 by September," CIBC projects".

Source: CIBC Economics - CIBC Capital Markets, efxnews.

• Fiscal expansion in the United States could have pro-cyclical effects, normalisation of Federal Reserve's monetary policy could be less gradual

In January 2017 the industrial production index seasonally adjusted decreased by 2.3% compared with the previous month. The percentage change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was +0.5%.

The calendar adjusted industrial production index decreased by 0.5% compared with January 2016 (calendar working days being 19 versus 21 days in January 2016).

The unadjusted industrial production index increased by 5.7% compared with January 2016.

"We expect BoE to maintain the Bank Rate at 0.25%, while leaving the targets for the stock of government bond purchases (APF) and the stock of corporate bond purchases (CBPS) unchanged at GBP435bn and GBP10bn, respectively. We do not expect any changes to the Term Funding Scheme (TFS) either.

Moreover, Danske still expects the BoE to remain on hold for the next 12 months.

On the FX front, Danske notes that as EUR/GBP has reached o1-3M target of 0.87, they're are currently reviewing their forecast.

"We still see risks skewed to the upside for EUR/GBP in the coming months ahead of and after the triggering of Article 50," Danske projects".

Source: Danske Bank Research, efxnews.

Producer prices in Japan were up 0.2 percent on month in February, the Bank of Japan said on Monday, cited by rttnews.

That was in line with expectations following the 0.6 percent increase in January.

On a yearly basis, prices advanced 1.0 percent - again matching forecasts and up from 0.5 percent in the previous month.

Export prices were down 0.5 percent on month and up 2.5 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices jumped 0.7 percent on month and 10.1 percent on year.

Food prices increased 2.2 percent in the year to February 2017, led by higher prices for fruit and vegetables, and dairy products, Stats NZ said today.

"This was the largest annual increase since December 2011," consumer prices manager Matthew Haigh said.

Higher prices were seen in all sub-groups except meat, poultry, and fish (down 2.0 percent). Fruit and vegetables were up 7.7 percent and grocery food was up 2.3 percent.

Vegetable prices were up 12 percent, led by higher prices for carrots, kūmara, and tomatoes. Carrot prices are at an all-time high, up 51 percent since February 2016. One kilo of carrots cost $3.53 in February 2017, compared with $2.34 a year ago. Apple prices also contributed to the large movement, up 32 percent from February last year. However, apple prices in February were down 13 percent from January.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0857 (989)

$1.0832 (117)

$1.0794 (43)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0699

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0569 (482)

$1.0515 (652)

$1.0453 (1395)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 38750 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (4227);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 38818 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0350 (3903);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 1.02 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 10

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2416 (295)

$1.2320 (407)

$1.2225 (213)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2184

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2080 (561)

$1.1984 (751)

$1.1887 (788)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 12954 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1227);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 15172 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3120);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 1.24 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 10

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.