Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 15-03-2017.

00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation March 4.1%

00:30 Australia RBA Bulletin

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate February 5.7% 5.7%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed February 13.5 16

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%

08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision -0.75% -0.75%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Finally) February 0.9% 0.9%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI February -0.8% 0.4%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) February 1.8% 2%

12:00 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 435 435

12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases January 10.23 9.45

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 2058 2050

12:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey March 43.3 30

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 243 240

12:30 U.S. Building Permits February 1293 1260

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts February 1246 1260

14:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings January 5.501 5.450

21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI February 51.6

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 528.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels last week, but are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels last week but are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 0.8 million barrels last week but are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.8 million barrels last week.

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped six points to a level of 71 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the highest reading since June 2005.

"Builders are buoyed by President Trump's actions on regulatory reform, particularly his recent executive order to rescind or revise the waters of the U.S. rule that impacts permitting," said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas.

"While builders are clearly confident, we expect some moderation in the index moving forward," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "Builders continue to face a number of challenges, including rising material prices, higher mortgage rates, and shortages of lots and labor."

Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,841.4 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.1 percent) from December 2016 and were up 2.3 percent (±0.3 percent) from January 2016.

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,359.3 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from December 2016 and was up 6.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from January 2016.

EURUSD:1.0400 (EUR 1.75bln) 1.0420-25 (1.7bln) 1.0450 (756m) 1.0500 (996m) 1.0550 (433m) 1.0560-70 (1.35bln) 1.0575 (1.1bln) 1.0600 (529m) 1.0650-55 (931m) 1.0690-700 (810m)

USDJPY: 113.50-60 (USD 1.8bln) 114.00 (600m) 114.20-30 (835m) 114.50 (1.9bln) 114.65-75 (816m) 115.00 (1.42bln) 115.25 (400m) 115.50 (455m) 116.00 ( 955m)

USDCHF 1.0000 (USD 274m)

EURGBP 0.8825 (EUR 295m)

EURJPY 122.00-05 (EUR 401m)

AUDUSD: 0.7650-55 (AUD 369m) 0.7700 (206m)

USDCAD 1.3400 (USD 695m) 1.3485 (225m) 1.3550 (265m)

NZDUSD 0.6875 (NZD 278m) 0.7000 (281m) 0.7100 (321m)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $474.0 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent from the previous month, and 5.7 percent above February 2016. Total sales for the December 2016 through February 2017 period were up 5.4 percent from the same period a year ago.

The December 2016 to January 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.6 percent (±0.3 percent). Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from January 2017, and up 5.9 percent (±0.7 percent) from last year. Gasoline Stations sales were up 19.6 percent (±1.4 percent) from February 2016, while Nonstore Retailers were up 13.0 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year.

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.1 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The February increase was the smallest 1-month rise in the seasonally adjusted all items index since July 2016. The gasoline index declined, partially offsetting increases in several indexes, including food, shelter, and

recreation. The energy index fell 1.0 percent, with the decline in gasoline outweighing increases in the other energy component indexes. The food index increased 0.2 percent over the month, its largest rise since September 2015.

• Fillon would beat Le Pen in run-off vote by 56 pct to 44 pct if Fillon made it through to second round

• Far-right's Le Pen to get 27 pct (unchanged) in 1st round of french election, Macron 25 pct (+1) , Fillon 19 pct (-1)

• We don't want mkt to overshoot

• Not yet at regime change

• Still conditional on very easy financial conditions

• Says is cautiously optimisitc

The number of persons employed increased by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28 in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared with the previous quarter, according to national accounts estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2016, employment increased by 0.2% in both areas. These figures are seasonally adjusted.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU28 in the fourth quarter of 2016 (after +1.2% and +1.1% respectively in the third quarter of 2016). Eurostat estimates that, in the fourth quarter of 2016, 232.9 million men and women were employed in the EU28 (highest level ever recorded); of which 153.9 million were in the euro area (highest level since the third quarter of 2008). These figures are seasonally adjusted. Over the whole year 2016, employment rose by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU28, compared with +1.0% and +1.1% respectively in 2015.

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between August to October 2016 and the 3 months to January 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell.

There were 31.85 million people in work, 92,000 more than for August to October 2016 and 315,000 more than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate was 4.7%, down from 5.1% for a year earlier. It has not been lower since June to August 1975. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.2% including bonuses, and by 2.3% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

In February 2017, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) recovered a little, at +0.1% over a month after a decrease by 0.2% in January. Seasonally adjusted, it edged down by 0.2%, after having risen by 0.7% in January. Year on year, consumer prices slowed down slightly (+1.2% after +1.3%).

Over a month, the slight increase resulted from a rebound in services prices and a rise in tobacco price. Food prices decelerated slightly due to fresh food prices. Winter sales having continued in February, manufactured products prices fell again, thus limiting the overall rebound. At last, energy prices were stable after five months of sharp increase.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0794 (994)

$1.0764 (117)

$1.0721 (43)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0627

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0571 (294)

$1.0533 (482)

$1.0486 (642)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 38639 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (4227);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 39685 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0350 (3907);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 14

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2511 (762)

$1.2414 (297)

$1.2318 (405)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2218

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2176 (370)

$1.2080 (564)

$1.1984 (787)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 12963 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1219);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 15637 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3140);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.21 versus 1.19 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Noreda Markets shares the widely held expectation of a 25bp increase in the fed funds rate on Wednesday, to a range of 0.75-1.00%.

"With a rate hike already priced in by the markets, the focus will turn to the Fed's forward guidance...We expect the Fed again to emphasise that the pace of rate hikes will be "only gradual"." Nordea projects.

Regarding the dot plot, Nordea believes the FOMC's median projections of the fed funds rate at the end of 2017 and 2018 are unlikely to change, consistent with three rate hikes both this year and in 2018, in line with the recent projection from December.

Finally, Nordea expects The FOMC's neutral rate estimate to remain unchanged at 3.0%.

Source: Nordea Research. efxnews.

• White House says Trump had a responsibility "to pay no more tax than legally required"

Japan's industrial production declined less than initially estimated in January, latest figures from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, cited by rttnews.

Industrial production fell 0.4 percent month-over-month in January instead of a 0.8 percent drop estimated earlier. It was the first decline in six months.

In December, production had risen 0.7 percent.

Inventories dropped 0.1 percent over the month, while it showed no variations in the preliminary data.

On an annual basis, industrial production climbed at a faster pace of 3.7 percent in January, following a 3.2 percent gain in the prior month.

Data also revealed that capacity utilization edged up 0.1 percent monthly in January, after 0.6 percent increase in December.

The February 2017 trend estimate (95,932) decreased by 0.5% when compared with January 2017.

When comparing national trend estimates for February 2017 with January 2017, sales for Passenger vehicles, Sports utility vehicles and Other vehicles decreased by 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

The largest downward movement across all states and territories, on a trend basis, was in Tasmania (-2.6%), continuing a downward trend that began in November 2016.

The largest upward movement across all states and territories, on a trend basis, was in the Northern Territory (0.1%).

New Zealand earned more income from our overseas investments in the December 2016 quarter, Stats NZ said today. This resulted in the lowest current account deficit since March 2014. The seasonally adjusted current account deficit decreased to $1.6 billion for the December 2016 quarter, $420 million smaller the September 2016 quarter's deficit.

"New Zealand earned $2.0 billion from investment overseas, $129 million more than in the September quarter," international statistics senior manager Daria Kwon said. "A large portion of this extra income was reinvested back into the overseas subsidiaries, instead of being paid out as dividends."

New Zealand's primary income deficit decreased to $2.0 billion in the December 2016 quarter, $140 million lower than in the September 2016 quarter deficit. Primary income comes mostly from investments. Typically, dividends are returned to New Zealand investors from overseas investments twice a year, not in every quarter.

At 31 December 2016, New Zealand had $240.6 billion of investment abroad (financial assets). On the flip side, foreign investments in New Zealand (financial liabilities) were valued at $397.1 billion.