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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 15-11-2012.
The yen slumped to the lowest in more than six months against the dollar on speculation Japanese elections next month will hand power to an opposition party that advocates more aggressive monetary easing.
Japan’s currency weakened against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts on speculation the vote will favor Shinzo Abe, who called for the central bank to provide unlimited stimulus.
The dollar declined against the euro as U.S. jobless claims rose and a regional manufacturing index decreased amid the devastation left by Hurricane Sandy. The dollar weakened as applications for jobless benefits surged by 78,000 to 439,000 in the week ended Nov. 10, the most since April 2011, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Several states said the increase was due to the storm that hit the Northeastern part of the U.S. in late October.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index decreased to minus 10.7 in November from 5.7 a month earlier. A reading of zero is the dividing line between expansion and contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware, which was hard hit by Sandy. A separate report showed the consumer-price index rose 0.1 percent, matching the median estimate of 83 economists, following a 0.6 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington.
In the euro area, data showed the economy slipped into a recession for the second time in four years. Gross domestic product in the region slipped 0.1 percent in the third quarter after a 0.2 percent decline in the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. From the year-earlier period, GDP dropped 0.6 percent.
The pound fell to a 10-week low versus the dollar as data showed U.K. retail sales slid. Britain’s pound fell for a second day against the euro after data showed retail sales including fuel dropped 0.8 percent in October from September, when they gained a revised 0.5 percent. The median forecast was for a 0.1 percent decline.
The Fed is focused on long-term unemployment
The Fed is still concerned about the "stubbornly high" unemployment
The Fed hopes that its actions encourage investment, hiring, spending
Fed's actions contribute to lower rates on mortgages
Low mortgage rates make home ownership available to more people
The situation in the housing sector improving, contributing to the growth of the economy, the improvement in the labor market
Recovery of the housing market has obstacles, has been uneven
Perhaps the "pendulum has swung too far," overlooking pine tight credit conditions
"Overly stringent" loan conditions may harm the housing market
Mortgage lenders have tightened lending conditions in 2007, since they did not moderate
US NEEDS FISCAL PLAN SUSTAINABLE OVER LONGER RUN
MON POL EFFECT ON EMPLOYMENT LESS THAN WIDELY THOUGHT
EXPECT RISKS POSED BY EUROPE TO US TO DIMINISH NEXT YR
EXPECT MEANINGFUL PROGRESS ON US BUDGET W/ELECTION PAST
ECONOMIES TAKE TIME TO RECOVER FROM SEVERE SHOCKS
CONTINUALLY BUYING SECURITIES JEOPARDIZES INFL GOAL
BANK RESERVE SUPPLY AMPLE;LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RECOV
OUTLK PREDICATED ON CONT GRADUAL RISE IN HOUSEHLD CONF
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC' ABOUT NEAR-TERM US OUTLOOK
MUCH OF RECENT SLUGGISHNESS IN US ECON 'UNDERSTANDABLE'
NOT CLEAR MPOL CAN CAUSE MATERIAL ECON IMPROVEMENT NOW
SEES FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN GROWTH TOWARDS END 2013
EXPECTS 2013 GROWTH AT ANNUAL RATE OF 2% OR ABOVE
MORE RISKY,DIFFICULT TO EXIT LARGER FED BALANCE SHEET
US NEEDS FISCAL PLAN SUSTAINABLE OVER LONGER RUN
MON POL EFFECT ON EMPLOYMENT LESS THAN WIDELY THOUGHT
EXPECT RISKS POSED BY EUROPE TO US TO DIMINISH NEXT YR
EXPECT MEANINGFUL PROGRESS ON US BUDGET W/ELECTION PAST
ECONOMIES TAKE TIME TO RECOVER FROM SEVERE SHOCKS
CONTINUALLY BUYING SECURITIES JEOPARDIZES INFL GOAL
BANK RESERVE SUPPLY AMPLE;LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RECOV
OUTLK PREDICATED ON CONT GRADUAL RISE IN HOUSEHLD CONF
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC' ABOUT NEAR-TERM US OUTLOOK
MUCH OF RECENT SLUGGISHNESS IN US ECON 'UNDERSTANDABLE'
NOT CLEAR MPOL CAN CAUSE MATERIAL ECON IMPROVEMENT NOW
SEES FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN GROWTH TOWARDS END 2013
EXPECTS 2013 GROWTH AT ANNUAL RATE OF 2% OR ABOVE
MORE RISKY,DIFFICULT TO EXIT LARGER FED BALANCE SHEET
EUR/USD $1.2650, $1.2700, $1.2715, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2820, $1.2825
GBP/USD $1.5800, $1.5950
AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0350, $1.0395, $1.0415, $1.0425, $1.0500
USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.60, Y79.70, Y79.90, Y80.00
EUR/GBP stg0.7930, stg0.7990, stg0.8000
NZD/USD Nz$0.8140
Data
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation November +2.6% +2.2%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) October +4.6% -2.8%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) October +14.4% +8.6%
01:45 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
06:30 France GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter III 0.0% 0.0% +0.2%
06:30 France GDP, Y/Y (preliminary) Quarter III +0.3% 0.0% +0.2%
07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (preliminary) Quarter III +0.3% +0.1% +0.2%
07:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (preliminary) Quarter III +0.5% +0.4% +0.9%
09:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report November
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) October +0.5% -0.1% -0.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) October +2.4% +1.6% +0.6%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI October +0.7% +0.2% +0.2%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) October +2.5% +2.5% +2.5%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y October +1.5% +1.5% +1.5%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (preliminary) Quarter III -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (preliminary) Quarter III -0.4% -0.6% -0.6%
The yen fell to its lowest level in more than six months against the dollar on expectations that the Japanese elections next month will win the opposition party, which advocates for more aggressive monetary easing.
Japan's currency weakened by at least 0.8% against all 16 major currencies on speculation that the vote would help Shinzo Abe, who urged the central bank to provide unlimited incentives.
The euro rose against the dollar, against the background of what the published data showed that the economy of the region has declined in the third quarter, less than expected. In the euro zone economy fell into recession for the second time in four years. Gross domestic product in the region decreased by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, after falling 0.2 percent in the previous three months. In the same period of last year, GDP fell by 0.6 percent.
The pound fell to a 10-week low against the dollar, as data showed that retail sales in the UK fell sharply. Retail sales, including fuel, decreased by 0.8%, compared with a revised 0.5% gain in September.
The Australian dollar fell as the Reserve Bank said that the increased sales of the currency. As it became known, the Reserve Bank of Australia has sold 457.0 million Australian dollars in the foreign exchange market in October, and other direct operations at RBA exchange market totaled 483 million Australian dollars.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair set a high at $ 1.2775 and then fell to $ 1.2760
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.5825, but then recovered, and now hovers around $ 1.5840
USD / JPY: during the European session shows substantial growth, and is now trading at Y81.25
At 13:30 GMT, Canada declared the change of volume of production deliveries in September. At the same time, the U.S. will be known data on the consumer price index, consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy, the Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted), the main consumer price index for October, as well as the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits and the Empire Manufacturing production index for November. At 14:00 GMT the United States planned to Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech. Also at this time by an address by a member of the FOMC Jeffrey Lacker. At 15:00 GMT the U.S. manufacturing index released Philadelphia Fed in November. At 16:00 GMT the U.S. will publish data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy in November. At 17:00 GMT the United States is scheduled speech Fed Chairman Bernanke.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2850, $1.2800, $1.2775/80
Bids $1.2705/00, $1.2680, $1.2655/50, $1.2630/20
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5980/85, $1.5940/50, $1.5900, $1.5875/80
Bids $1.5810/00, $1.5780, $1.5750
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0470/90, $1.0455/60, $1.0450, $1.0420, $1.0395/00, $1.0360/65
Bids $1.0300, $1.0280, $1.0250, $1.0200, $1.0180
EUR/JPY
Offers Y104.59, Y104.50, Y104.00, Y103.87/94
Bids Y103.20, Y103.00, Y102.65/60, Y102.25/20, Y102.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y82.50, Y82.00, Y81.50
Bids Y80.80/75, Y80.50/40, Y80.20, Y80.00, Y79.80
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8150, stg0.8120, stg0.8100, stg0.8080
Bids stg0.8005/00, stg0.7965/60, stg0.7945/40
EUR/USD $1.2650, $1.2700, $1.2715, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2820, $1.2825
GBP/USD $1.5800, $1.5950
AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0350, $1.0395, $1.0415, $1.0425, $1.0500
USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.60, Y79.70, Y79.90, Y80.00
EUR/GBP stg0.7930, stg0.7990, stg0.8000
NZD/USD Nz$0.8140
The yen fell the most in eight months against the dollar after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he will dissolve parliament, paving the way for elections that polls show his Democratic Party of Japan will lose. Japan’s currency weakened versus most of its major peers amid speculation the opposition will win power and pressure the central bank into a more aggressive easing policy.
The dollar dropped versus the euro after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said she supports tying a low interest-rate outlook to economic goals and U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in four months.
Yellen joined three other Fed officials who have endorsed tying zero interest rates with progress on fighting unemployment as a way to provide more clarity on the central bank’s outlook for monetary policy. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which said last month it expects to keep its benchmark rate near zero through at least mid-2015, releases minutes from its October meeting.
Retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.3 percent in October, following a 1.3 percent increase in September that was larger than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists called for a drop of 0.2 percent.
The pound fell after the Bank of England lowered its growth forecasts. “The weaker gross domestic product profile reflects the judgment that the broader causes and repercussions of the financial crisis may bear down more forcefully on demand and productivity than assumed” previously, the central bank said in its quarterly Inflation Report published in London today. “There seems a greater risk that the U.K. economy may be in a period of persistent low growth.”
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter III +1.0% +0.8% +0.7%
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter III +3.7% +3.8% +3.7%
The yen sank to a six-month low on prospects Japanese elections next month will hand power to the opposition party that advocates more aggressive monetary easing. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said yesterday he will dissolve parliament, triggering an election that polls indicate his ruling Democratic Party of Japan may lose. The vote for the lower house will be held Dec. 16, acting DPJ secretary- general Jun Azumi said last night. Japan’s currency was set for the biggest two-day drop since March on speculation the election will favor Shinzo Abe, who today called for unlimited easing by the Bank of Japan.A victory for the opposition Liberal Democratic Party would reinstateAbe as premier. In a speech today in Tokyo, Abe reiterated his call for the BOJ to set an inflation target of up to 3 percent, and said it should cut benchmark interest rates to zero or lower.
The euro slid versus most peers before data forecast to show the currency bloc’s economy shrank a second quarter. In the euro area, advance estimates due today will probably show gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent in the three months through September from the previous period, according to the median economist forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. That follows a 0.2 percent drop in the second quarter and would lead to the first technical recession since 2009.
The Dollar Index (DXY) was near a two-month high as tensions in the Gaza Strip spurred demand for haven assets.
Australia’s currency weakened versus most major peers after a Reserve Bank report on foreign-exchange transactions. The RBA sold A$483 million ($501 million) more Australian currency than it bought in October through the so-called other outright transactions category, which can include foreign central banks. That’s the most since June 2009, the data showed.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair was trading around $ 1.2735.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose, departing from the previous day's low.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y80.95.
A full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic kicks off at 0630GMT, when French third quarter GDP data is set for release. Further early evidence over the state of the European economy will be offered at 0700GMT, when Germany's Q3 GDP data will cross the wires. Further French data is expected at 0730GMT, when the French October Banque de France retail survey is due for release. With the individual nation growth numbers now out, overall EMU Q3 GDP data will cross the wires at 1000GMT, the same time as EMU October final HICP.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2735 +0,25%
GBP/USD $1,5839 -0,20%
USD/CHF Chf0,9448 -0,25%
USD/JPY Y80,23 +1,07%
EUR/JPY Y102,20 +1,34%
GBP/JPY Y127,09 +0,90%
AUD/USD $1,0375 -0,58%
NZD/USD $0,8101 -0,70%
USD/CAD C$1,0039 +0,20%
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation November +2.6% +2.2%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) October +4.6% -2.8%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) October +14.4% +8.6%
01:45 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
06:30 France GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter III 0.0% 0.0%
06:30 France GDP, Y/Y (preliminary) Quarter III +0.3% 0.0%
07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (preliminary) Quarter III +0.3% +0.1%
07:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (preliminary) Quarter III +0.5% +0.4%
09:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report November
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) October +0.6% -0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) October +2.5% +1.6%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI October +0.7% +0.2%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) October +2.5% +2.5%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y October +1.5% +1.5%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (preliminary) Quarter III -0.2% -0.2%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (preliminary) Quarter III -0.4% -0.6%
13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m October +0.6% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y October +2.0% +2.1%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m October +0.1% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y October +2.0% +2.0%
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 355 362
13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index November -6.16 -7.35
13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) September +1.5% +0.3%
14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Laker Speaks -
15:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey November 5.7 2.3
15:00 U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Quarter III 7.58%
16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - +1.8
18:20 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks -
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