Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 18-01-2013.

Canadian dollar slightly offset decline against the U.S. dollar after the November manufacturing shipments in Canada rose by 1.7% m / m, exceeding the forecast and showing improvement over the decline in the past month.

Amplification of risk aversion in the markets made ​​a couple update highs above key resistance at C $ 0.9900 today, but after the Canadian data loonie was able to play a few points.

The USD / CAD has appreciated by 0.45% to C $ 0.9909. Resistance is at C $ 0.9925 (maximum of 4 January), C $ 0.9945 (maximum of 2 January) and C $ 0.9970 (maximum of 28 December).

The support is expected at C $ 0.9855 (MA (200) for H1), C $ 0.9835 (Jan. 16 low) and C $ 0.9815 (Jan. 11 low).

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3320, $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.343

USD/JPY Y89.75, Y89.50, Y89.00

EUR/JPY Y117.50

GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.6000

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

USD/CHF Chf0.9310

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0575, $1.0605, $1.0610, $1.0650

AUD/JPY Y93.50

EUR/AUD A$1.2700

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) December 0.0% +0.2% -0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) December +0.9% +1.0% +0.3%

In the absence of an important regional statistics, the downward trend for the euro is determined disappointing news from the central banks of Spain and Italy. The Bank of Spain said that the problem loans of Spanish banks in November reached a new record high, while total loans fell to the lowest level since July 2007. In November, the volume of non-performing loans increased by 2 billion euros, or 2.69 billion dollars to 191.63 billion euros, or 11.4% of total outstanding loans. In October, the share of non-performing loans was lower - 11.2%. The previous year (in November 2011) it was 7.5%. Performing loans increased for 20 consecutive months due to a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcy cases of house-building companies and growing unemployment. Last year, the government had to intervene and to recapitalize several problem lenders, reported a record loss. Total loans in November fell by 5.7% compared to November 2011 due to low consumer demand for credit and banks after the introduction of tighter monetary policy.

In turn, the Bank of Italy lowered the GDP forecast for Italy to 2013 to -1.0% from the previously expected decline of 0.2% due to the weakness of the global economy and national production.

British pound updated 8-week low against the U.S. dollar on weak retail sales data. In December, the UK retail sales rose by 0.3% y / y vs. 1.1% y / y In monthly terms, had dropped by 0.1% against expectations of 0.2%. Sales excluding fuel marked decline by 0.3% in monthly terms in December vs. 0.1%, while year - rose 1.1% vs. 2.1%. Annual retail sales growth was the lowest since December 2010, when unusually severe weather prevented the British shop in stores. Excluding the December 2010 retail sales were the worst for that month since 1998.

EUR / USD: during the European session the updated at least $ 1.3295

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new 8-week low of $ 1.5909

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair has stabilized in the range of Y89.72 - Y90.05

At 13:30 GMT in Canada will change in the volume of production deliveries in November. At 14:55 GMT the U.S. will release consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in January.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3485-900, $1.3450, $1.3430, $1.3300/05

Bids  $1.3330, $1.3310/00, $1.3260/50

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0625, $1.0600, $1.0590, $1.0575/80,  $1.0555/60, $1.0540, $1.0525/30

Bids  $1.0490/80, $1.0475/70, $1.0455/50, $1.0420, $1.0410/00

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6095/105, $1.6050/55, $1.6030, $1.5855/65

Bids  $1.5920, $1.5900, $1.5885/80, $1.5850

EUR/JPY

Offers Y122.00, Y121.80, Y121.50, Y121.00, Y120.35/40

Bids  Y119.50, Y119.00, Y118.50, Y118.10/00

USD/JPY

Offers Y91.00, Y90.55/60, Y90.50, Y90.40, Y90.20/30

Bids  Y89.50, Y89.10/00, Y88.60/40

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8450, stg0.8420, stg0.8400

Bids  stg0.8335/30, stg0.8300, stg0.8260,  stg0.8250,  stg0.8225/20

--cut due to weaker global economy, domestic production

--Italy GDP contracted by more than 2% in 2012

--Italy GDP to turn "slightly positive" in 2014

--Risk for economy still elevated

--Italy deficit 3%/GDP iin 2012 vs 3.9% 2011

--Italy must consolidate gains in public finances and econ reforms

--Capital flows returning to the peripheral countries

GBP / USD continued to fall after weak retail sales data in Britain. Breakdown of support, the pair updated session lows at $ 1.5922, noting a decline of 0.4% for the day. In December, the UK retail sales rose by 0.3% y / y vs. 1.1% y / y In monthly terms, had dropped by 0.1% against expectations of 0.2%. Sales excluding fuel marked decline by 0.3% in monthly terms in December vs. 0.1%, while year - rose 1.1% vs. 2.1%. At the moment the pair rebounded from the lows reached in around $ 1.5940.

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3320, $1.3400, $1.3435

USD/JPY Y89.75, Y89.50, Y89.00

EUR/JPY Y117.50

GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.6000

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0575, $1.0605, $1.0610, $1.0650

The euro approached a 10-month high against the dollar as a result of placement of bonds of Spain in the amount 4.505 billion euros, which corresponds to the top of the targeted range of 3.5-4.5 billion euros, the cost of borrowing has fallen, which also led to increased confidence in European debt market.

The cost of the single currency rose against all 16 major peers, while the yen fell to its weakest level since 2010 against the dollar, as the newspaper learned that the Bank of Japan (8301) is preparing for further stimulation as early as next week. It is expected that the government will launch a program of asset purchases and unrestricted will use it for as long as inflation does not reach the target mark of 2.0%. The Central Bank will also consider reducing the lower limit of the range of short-term interest rates to zero, and, possibly, lower. In addition, the Minister of Economy, Akira Amari told reporters that his comments that excessive weakening currency was harmful, were misinterpreted. He added that the yen continues to suffer from over-capacity.

The Swiss franc fell to its weakest level against the euro since September 2011, when the central bank introduced a limit on the franc's exchange rate at CHF1, 2 euro. Swiss currency fell against all 16 most-traded currencies, except the yen as speculation that the debt crisis in Europe weakened, undermined the demand for assets seekers.

Earlier, the dollar regained some of its losses against the euro after data showed that housing starts in the U.S. grew by 12.1% last month, which was more than expected. At the same time, another report showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to 335,000 while still achieving the lowest level since January 2008.

The Australian dollar fell against most major currencies after a report showed that employers in the country unexpectedly cut jobs in December at 5,500, compared with estimates economist at 4000 people.

02:00 China GDP y/y IV quarter +7.4% +7.8% +7.9%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y December +10.1% +10.2% +10.3%

02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment December +20.7% +20.7% +20.6%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) November -1.7% -1.7% -1.4%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) November -5.8% -5.5%

The yen touched a 2 1/2-year low and was set for a 10th weekly decline after BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, Finance Minister Taro Aso and Economy Minister Akira Amari met today. Japan’s two-year note yield slid to a seven-year low amid speculation the central bank will boost bond purchases to end deflation.

The Swiss franc weakened against all major peers as faster-than-estimated growth in China boosted Asian stocks, sapping demand for haven currencies. China’s economy grew 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts was for a 7.8 percent gain in gross domestic product. In the third quarter, the economy expanded 7.4 percent from a year earlier.

The New Zealand dollar maintained a drop from yesterday after the nation’s consumer prices unexpectedly fell last quarter, giving the central bank scope to keep borrowing costs at a record low. Consumer prices declined 0.2 percent from the third quarter, when they rose 0.3 percent, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington today. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept the official cash rate at 2.5 percent since March 2011, and 14 of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted no policy change before June 30.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to yesterday's high of $1.3390.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.5960.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y89.65-Y90.20.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3373 +0,64%

GBP/USD $1,5991 -0,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,9325 +0,15%

USD/JPY Y89,88 +1,68%

EUR/JPY Y120,18 +2,30%

GBP/JPY Y143,71 +1,57%

AUD/USD $1,0544 -0,26%

NZD/USD $0,8361 -0,55%

02:00 China GDP y/y IV quarter +7.4% +7.8% +7.9%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y December +10.1% +10.2% +10.3%

02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment December +20.7% +20.7% +20.6%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) November -1.7% -1.7%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) November -5.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) December 0.0% +0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) December +0.9% +1.0%

13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) November -1.4% +0.9%

14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) January 72.9 75.1