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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 18-10-2012.
The yen slipped to the weakest level in almost two months versus the dollar as speculation that the Bank of Japan will boost stimulus measures sapped demand for the nation’s assets as a haven. This month, the Bank of Japan may disclose the assumption that in the next two financial years, he could not reach the target level of inflation at 1%. Later this month, the central bank will release updated economic forecasts for 2012/13., As well as the original forecasts for 2014 fiscal year. This publication is to show that the CPI excluding food does not make it to the 1%. The fall in prices accelerated in May, which increased the pressure on the central bank with respect to reverse deflation and stimulate economic growth. Experts predict that at the meeting of October 30 Bank of Japan newly expanded program of asset purchases.
The euro snapped a two-day gain versus the dollar as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the region’s debt crisis won’t be quickly solved. Market participants still do not expect that the summit will be taken any important decisions. Spain, as expected, will not make a request for assistance, at least until next month. In addition, the EU's leaders are unlikely to make a decision about whether to grant Greece the next tranche of aid. However, the euro was supported by the hope that in the coming weeks, Spain finally make concessions and ask for help, and the partners of Greece from the euro zone, in the end, to give the country more time to achieve target levels of budget deficits.
The U.S. dollar regained some lost ground after the release of U.S. economic data, will weaken investor confidence in the strength of the economic recovery. The dollar rose after a report according to which the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose more than expected. Meanwhile, the index of business activity Philadelphia Fed pointed to some weakness.
The pound rose against the dollar after the September retail sales in Britain were more than expected. Key indicator and the indicator excluding fuel reported an increase of 0.6% against expectations of 0.4%. In annual terms, the main index remained unchanged at 2.5%, while the indicator excluding fuel rose 2.9% vs. 2.1% and 2.4% respectively.
Merkel does not expect that the upcoming summit will take important decisions
Leaders agree that they have to work fast to create the banking supervisory authority
Despite the fact that a key indicator of the September report noted an increase from -1.9 to 5.7 vs. 1.0, release details on the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity showed that the indicators of employment, new orders and semi-annual outlook marked decline. Only thanks to the positive dynamics in the category of shipments (-0.2 vs. prev. -21.2) And reserves (2.1 vs. prev. -21.7) Key indicator registered an improvement. According to the report, employment continues to shift away from jobs with full-time employment to fragile items.
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3045, $1.3050, $1.3060, $1.3100, $1.3135, $1.3200
GBP/USD $1.6050, $1.6190, $1.6200
AUD/USD $1.0280, $1.0300, $1.0350
EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8120
USD/JPY Y78.83, Y78.70, Y78.95
EUR/JPY Y102.00
USD/CHF Chf0.9290
Data
00:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter III -3 -2
02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter III +7.6% +7.4% +7.4%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y September +8.9% +9.0% +9.2%
06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance September 1.61 2.42 2.02
08:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) September -0.1% +0.5% +0.6%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) September +2.7% +2.2% +2.5%
The yen fell to its lowest level in almost two months against the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan will carry out a set of measures to stimulate the economy, undermining demand for assets in the country as a refuge.
The Japanese currency has recorded its longest decline against the dollar since March 2011 after the U.S. Treasury yields reached the highest values for the month compared to the Japanese counterparts. At the end of the month, members of the Board of the Bank of Japan will consider the draft budget for 2012-2013 and forecasts for the year starting April 2014. These are likely to reflect the retail prices, excluding fresh food, which rose by less than 1%, according to official sources on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private. The situation would mean the failure of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan on the inflation target of 1 percent.
The euro broke its two-day rise against the dollar, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the region's debt crisis will not be solved in one go.
Also today, French President Francois Hollande called for the EU to move forward on the formation of the banking union, to provide economic assistance to countries that are trying to rein in the budget deficit, and show investors that Greece will be able to stay in the monetary union, if it is to fulfill its obligations.
Pound rose sharply during the session, which was caused by the publication of data on the level of retail sales, which rose significantly, surpassing with expectations of many analysts. But, in spite of the significant strengthening of the pound was unable to hold their positions, and almost fell to the lowest level of the day against the dollar.
Australian dollar during the first half of the day has strengthened against the U.S. dollar against the publication of data on China's GDP, which fell in line with analysts' forecasts. But after the currency reached a high of $ 1.0410 the situation has changed, and began a significant decline, in which the Australian dollar is gradually approaching the minimum values of the day.
EUR/USD: during the session, the pair is trading without a trend and now fluctuates near the opening level of the day
GBP/USD: pair rose sharply, setting the maximum at $ 1.6170, followed by a significant drop.
USD/JPY: currency in today's trading shows rapid growth and is now close to the maximum values
At 12:30 GMT in Canada, there are data on changes in the volume of wholesale trade for August. At the same time, the U.S. will know the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits in October. Finish the day at 14:00 GMT U.S. manufacturing output index for the Philadelphia Fed October
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3180, $1.3150, $1.3145/46
Bids $1.3070/60, $1.3055/50, $1.3040, $1.3020
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6250, $1.6200
Bids $1.6105/00, $1.6080, $1.6050
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0450, $1.0420
Bids $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0300
EUR/JPY
Offers Y105.50, Y105.00, Y104.80, Y104.50
Bids Y103.55/50, Y103.20, Y103.00, Y102.70/60
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.00, Y79.80, Y79.50, Y79.30
Bids Y79.05/00, Y78.85/80, Y78.70, Y78.65/60, Y78.50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8250, stg0.8200, stg0.8180, stg0.8150
Bids stg0.8100, stg0.8085/80, stg0.8070, stg0.8050, stg0.8040
To resolve the crisis in the Eurozone will take some time
The summit is not taken any decision on the European Monetary Union
Urge to endow the EU Commissioner for monetary policy, strong powers
Reforms are yielding results in Greece, Ireland, Portugal
I promise that the German Parliament will decide on the next payment of Greece
We must wait for the report, "Troika" to take action on Greece
I want Greece to remain in the eurozone
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3045, $1.3050, $1.3060, $1.3100, $1.3135, $1.3200
GBP/USD $1.6050, $1.6190, $1.6200
AUD/USD $1.0280, $1.0300, $1.0350
EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8120
USD/JPY Y78.83, Y78.70, Y78.95
EUR/JPY Y102.00
USD/CHF Chf0.9290
Spain sold E4.614bln vs target E3.5bln-E4.5bln
E1.637bln of 4.00% July 2015 Bono; cover 2.61. Avg yield 3.227%
E1.464bln of 4.25% Oct 2016 Bono; cover 2.56 vs 1.86 previous. Avg yield 3.977% vs 4.60% previous
E1.513bln of 5.85% Jan 2022 Obgligaciones; cover 1.88 vs 2.85 previous. Avg yield 5.458% vs 5.67% prev
Yesterday the euro strengthened to a one-month high against the dollar after Spain kept its investment-grade credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service, easing concern the region’s debt crisis was spreading. Moody’s said yesterday it kept Spain’s credit rating at Baa3, one step above junk, as the risk that the nation would lose market access had fallen because of the European Central Bank’s willingness to purchase its bonds.
The 17-nation currency appreciated for a fifth day versus the yen as Spanish and Italian bonds rallied. Spain’s 10-year bond yield fell as much as 29 basis points to 5.51 percent, the lowest since April 4, while Italian 10-year yields declined to the least since March 19. Benchmark Spanish borrowing costs have dropped more than 2 percentage points from their record high of 7.75 percent on July 25.
The dollar weakened versus all of its major peers as U.S. housing starts rose to a four-year high last month, damping demand for safer assets.
The pound rallied against the greenback after U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly declined.
00:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter III -2 -2
02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter III +7.6% +7.4% +7.4%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y September +8.9% +9.0% +9.2%
The yen touched the weakest level in a month as Asian stock gains and optimism European Union leaders meeting today in Brussels will take steps toward resolving the euro area’s crisis curbed demand for haven assets. France’s President Francois Hollande called on the EU to press ahead on forming a banking union, provide economic help to countries that rein in budget deficits, and show investors that Greece will be able to stay in the euro zone if it keeps its commitments.
Japan’s currency slid versus all 16 major counterparts as expectations increased the country’s central bank will boost stimulus measures at a meeting on Oct. 30. In Japan, central bank board members will release updated economic projections for the 2012 and 2013 fiscal years at month-end, along with the first set of forecasts for the 12 months beginning in April 2014. The estimates will probably show consumer prices, excluding fresh food, rising less than 1 percent, people familiar with the matter said, on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private. That would mark a failure for the Bank of Japan (8301) in meeting its 1 percent inflation goal.
U.S. government debt fell yesterday after Commerce Department figures showed new home construction surged to the highest level in four years, reducing demand for the relative safety of Treasuries. A report today will probably show initial jobless claims in the world’s biggest economy rose to 365,000 last week from 339,000 in the previous period, according to the median forecast among 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The Australian dollar strengthened after China’s statistics bureau said today gross domestic product rose 7.4 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, matching the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the report was released. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to the previous day's low.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6120-45.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y79.20, updating monthly high.
A full calendar ahead on Thursday, with the main event later in the day as EU leaders meet in Brussels for their latest Summit, with Spain, Greece and plans for deeper economic and monetary union likely to be the dominant topics. Also ahead of the leaders Summit, European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn is slated to participate at the ECMI annual conference, also in Brussels. Also scheduled for 0700GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government declaration in the German parliament on upcoming EU summit, in Berlin. UK data gets underway at 0830GMT, with the dominant release the official September retail sales numbers. Also at 0830GMT, the September CML gross mortgage lending data and the September SMMT car production numbers are released. US data kicks off at 1230GMT, with the Initial claims data for the October 13 week likely to be the main release. U.S. 13-October Initial Jobless Claims. At 1400GMT, the October Philadelphia Fed Survey is expected. Also at 1400GMT, the September Leading Indicator will hit screens.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3114 +0,12%
GBP/USD $1,6138 +0,12%
USD/CHF Chf0,9223 -0,09%
USD/JPY Y79,03 +0,22%
EUR/JPY Y103,66 +0,35%
GBP/JPY Y127,52 +0,33%
AUD/USD $1,0373 +0,68%
NZD/USD $0,8216 +0,56%
USD/CAD C$0,9779 -0,86%00:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter III -2 -2
02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter III +7.6% +7.4% +7.4%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y September +8.9% +9.0% +9.2%
06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance September 1.73 2.42
08:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) September -0.2% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) September +2.7% +2.2%
12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m August -0.6% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 339 367
14:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey October -1.9 0.5
14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators September -0.1% +0.1%
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