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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 15-10-2012.
The yen weakened against all 16 most-traded counterparts after a report showed that U.S. retail sales in September rose more than expected, which reduced the demand for safe assets. Sales increased by 1.1% m / m in August from a revised value of 1.2% m / m, which was the highest since October 2010. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.8%.
The euro was little changed against the dollar at a time when data showed that manufacturing activity index of the New York Fed Empire State shows decline in activity for the third month in a row. At the same time, in August, the growth of business inventories in the U.S. has slowed, suggesting that the sudden rise of sales begins to contribute to the devastation of accumulated reserves.
The shared currency touched a one-week high against the yen after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said a Greek default “will not happen.” In addition, Schaeuble urged central banks to monitor the inflation risks associated with excess liquidity. The Minister stressed that we should not forget that the excess liquidity was one of the causes of the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
The focus of market participants summit of EU leaders to be held on 18-19 October in Brussels, which will discuss the problem of possible request for assistance from Spain and providing aid to Greece.
Pound earlier fell against the euro on expectations that inflation in the UK slowed in the last month. The annual rate of inflation in the UK is forecast down to 2.2% in September from 2.5% in August. But is it really so we will know tomorrow after the publication of official data.
Predicts growth in 2012 at 2%
PCE inflation forecast in this and next year is 2%
The outlook for unemployment 8% in 2012 and 7% in 2013
Inflation forecasts are not cause great anxiety
It's reasonable to expect that the unemployment rate will decline slightly
Europe in recession
The elimination of the European crisis will take many years
EUR/USD $1.2895, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100
GBP/USD $1.6150
AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0200, $1.0250
EUR/JPY Y101.00
USD/CHF chf0.9525
NZD/USD nz$0.8200
00:30 Australia Home Loans August -0.7% +1.4% +1.8%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September +4.3% +4.7%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September +6.4% +14.4%
01:30 China CPI y/y September +2.0% +1.9% +1.9%
01:30 China PPI y/y September -3.5% -3.4% -3.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) August -1.3% -1.3% -1.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) August -4.3% -4.6%
07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m September +0.5% +0.3% +0.3%
07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y September -0.1% +0.1% +0.3%
The euro rose against the dollar ahead of key events for the European market, which is expected this week. Investors also continue to focus on the Spanish crisis. The single currency rose to $ 1.2980 ahead of the EU summit, which will take place on Thursday, and the auction of Spanish bonds at the end of the week and the local Spanish elections on Sunday.
Risk appetite remains weak despite positive signs of economic recovery in China, after the People's Bank of China published data on the trade at the weekend, which recorded a growth of exports to the U.S., Japan, and Asia.
The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. currency on the eve of publication of minutes of meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which will be presented tomorrow. Yen weakened for a third day against the dollar and the euro in the run-up report from the U.S., which should clarify the situation with the level of retail sales, which is expected to have increased in September. Against this background, there was a decrease in demand for the Japanese currency safe.
The yen fell against all but one of its 16 major counterparts as European stocks rose, boosting investor appetite for higher-yielding assets.
The euro strengthened to one-week high against the yen after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the Greek sovereign debt default will not.
The pound fell against the euro on expectations that inflation in the UK slowed in the last month. The annual rate of inflation in the UK is forecast down to 2.2% in September from 2.5% in August. But is it really so we will know tomorrow after the publication of official data.
EUR/USD: pair rose to a new intraday high of $ 1.2980
GBP/USD: pair rose to $ 1.6078, approaching to the maximum of the day, and then decreased slightly
USD/JPY: the pair grown to Y78.88, while setting a new high
At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will be published data on Retail Sales, Retail Sales excluding auto sales, the change in volume of retail trade sales, excluding cars and fuel for September. At the same time released Empire Manufacturing production index for October. At 13:00 GMT, Canada declared the change in our sales in the secondary market in September. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. are data on changes in stocks in commercial warehouses for August. At 14:30 GMT in Canada will be presented to the expectations of the indicator in the credit and financial institutions, according to the Bank of Canada and the light of the expected growth in trade (Review sentiment in the business environment, the Bank of Canada) for the third quarter. Finish the day at 21:45 GMT New Zealand data on the consumer price index for the third quarter
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3050, $1.3035/40, $1.2990/000, $1.2980
Bids $1.2905/00, $1.2875/70, $1.2855/45, $1.2820-00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6140/60, $1.6120/25, $1.6095/00, $1.6090
Bids $1.6005/00, $1.5985/75, $1.5950/40, $1.5925/10
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0320, $1.0300, $1.0250
Bids $1.0205/00, $1.0170, $1.0150, $1.0100, $1.0080
EUR/JPY
Offers Y102.80, Y102.50, Y102.20
Bids Y101.40, Y101.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.50, Y79.00, Y78.80
Bids Y78.10, Y78.00, Y77.95/90
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8102, stg0.8090, stg0.8080
Bids stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005-995, stg0.7980/75
EUR/USD $1.2895, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100
GBP/USD $1.6150
AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0200, $1.0250
EUR/JPY Y101.00
USD/CHF chf0.9525
NZD/USD nz$0.8200
On Friday the euro rose for a second day against the dollar on speculation that Spain is close to what will request financial assistance. Also, the euro rose as the EU statistical office in Luxembourg said that industrial production in the eurozone unexpectedly increased in August by 0.6%.
Later, the single currency fell as Reuters reported that the European Stability Mechanism is not enough money to rescue Spain if the country asks for help before the end of the year. However, analysts say that the fund has the right to collect the money from the sale of fixed income securities.
Dollar rose after the published data showed that consumer sentiment index jumped to 83.1 from the final level of the value in September - 78.3. As it became known, the October index is the highest since September 2007.
The Australian dollar fell against all 16 most-traded currencies amid falling stock markets in the U.S. and Europe.
The yen fell against the dollar amid signs of U.S. economic recovery, reducing demand for safe-haven.
00:30 Australia Home Loans August -1.0% +1.4% +1.0%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September +3.6% +4.7%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September +6.4% +14.4%
01:30 China CPI y/y September +2.0% +1.9% +1.9%
01:30 China PPI y/y September -3.5% -3.4% -3.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) August -1.3% -1.3% -1.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) August -4.3% -4.6%
The euro weakened as concern that growth and sentiment in the 17-nation region is faltering overshadowed prospects that a leaders’ meeting this week will lead to solutions to the debt crisis. EU leaders will meet in Brussels on Oct. 18-19 as Greece seeks to justify renewed aid and Spain holds out on tapping a 500-billion ($645.4 billion) permanent rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism. The euro fell versus most of its major peers amid uncertainty over whether Spain will seek a bailout and before a report forecast to show investor confidence weakened in Germany, the region’s biggest economy. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research will probably say its index of expectations among German investors and analysts was at minus 14.9 this month from minus 18.2 in September, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. ZEW is due to release the figures tomorrow, and its gauge for current conditions dropped to 11.8 in October from 12.6 in the previous period, analysts predicted.
The Australian dollar dropped before the Reserve Bank releases tomorrow minutes of its October meeting, while its New Zealand counterpart slid after a report showed services shrank. Bank of New Zealand Ltd. and Business New Zealand said today that their Performance of Services Index fell to 49.6 in September. It was the first time since October 2009 that the gauge was below 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.2900.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to the floor of a figure to $1.6025.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y78.60, updating week’s high.
At 1515GMT, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy are to speak at the opening conference of Single Market Week, in Brussels. On the other side of the Atlantic, the US retail sales data for September are released at 1230GMT. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.8% in September after sharp gains in the previous two months. Also at 1230GMT, the U.S. NY Fed Empire State Survey is released. The Index is expected to rise to a reading of -4.0 in October after falling sharply in both August and September to levels below the breakeven point. Its a heavy day fro Fed speak, starting at 1245GMT, when New York Federal Reserve Bank Pres. William Dudley speaks to the 54th Annual NABE meeting on the "Intersection Between Finance and Real Activity." At 1400GMT, the September Business Inventories data is due. Fed speakers continue at 1645GMT, when Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Pres. Jeffrey Lacker speaks to business and government leaders in Roanoke, Va., on the topic of "Economic Outlook, October 2012." At 1710GMT, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Pres. James Bullard speaks to the 3rd Annual Economic Forum of the Missouri Council on Economic Education on the topic of the "U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy," and answering questions from the audience and the media. Lastly, at 0030GMT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Pres. John Williams speaks to the Financial Women's Association on "A rospective on the Economy," after which he answers questions from the audience.
00:30 Australia Home Loans August -1.0% +1.4% +1.0%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September +3.6% +4.7%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September +6.4% +14.4%
01:30 China CPI y/y September +2.0% +1.9% +1.9%
01:30 China PPI y/y September -3.5% -3.4% -3.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) August -1.3% -1.3%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) August -4.3%
07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m September +0.5% +0.3%
07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y September -0.1% +0.1%
12:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak -
12:30 U.S. Retail sales September +0.9% +0.7%
12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto September +0.8% +0.6%
12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index October -10.41 -4.50
14:00 U.S. Business inventories August +0.8% +0.5%
14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Quarter III -10.8
14:30 Canada Bank of Canada business outlook future sales Quarter III 15 13.25
19:20 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -
21:45 New Zealand CPI, q/q Quarter III +0.3% +0.5%
21:45 New Zealand CPI, y/y Quarter III +1.0% +1.0%
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