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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 11-10-2012.
The dollar fell against most major currencies, as speculation arose that Spain could ask for help, and the increased demand for Italian bonds, influenced increasing appetite for riskier assets.
The dollar continued to trade down, even after the published data showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in four years. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits during the week (September 30 - October 6) decreased by 30,000 to 339,000 level. However, this decline is largely due to the fact that one state has not published data.
Earlier, the euro has significantly decreased since the rating agency S & P downgraded Spain's credit rating by two notches, but because it has increased the likelihood that Spain, for financial support, the euro has soared.
The dollar index (DXY), which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of the U.S. partner, fell 0.2% to 79.779.
The Australian dollar strengthened after the published data, according to which it was reported that the number of employed increased by 14,500 people in September, which was almost three times more than the average estimate of economists. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, reaching its highest level since April 2010.
The euro broke a three-day decline against the yen on speculation regarding the financing of Spain. Note also that the profitability of Spanish 10-year bonds fell to 5.76% today.
During the U.S. session, the dollar fell sharply against the yen, after a significant increase in the early afternoon. However, the combination of weak economic performance in Japan, increased pressure on the Bank of Japan in order to soften its monetary policy, as well as the probability of the intervention to the depreciation of the yen is likely to retard the growth of the Japanese currency in the near future.
Inflation is likely to "slow down" in the medium term
Recovery in the labor market will be gradual
Fed faces a long-term inflationary risk in the new policy
U.S. GDP will grow by 2% this year, 3% in 2013 and 2014
Inflation is expected in the medium term will remain near the target level
New incentives from the Federal Reserve could weaken the credibility of the central bank
Will have to raise rates before mid-2015 in order to avoid inflation
Uncertainty remains a major constraint to economic growth
I opposed the stimulus at the September meeting of the Operations Committee on the Federal Open Market
New measures by the Fed is neither practical nor efficient for the economy
European crisis negatively affect the growth of the German economy
Expects German GDP growth in 2012 at the level of 1%
Plans to stimulate domestic demand through tax cuts
The report will identify three decision on Greece
EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2930, $1.2950, $1.2975, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y77.75, Y78.30, Y78.50, Y78.60, Y78.65
EUR/JPY Y100.00, Y100.50
GBP/USD $1.5945-50, $1.6080, $1.6110, $1.6115
USD/CHF Chf0.9375, Chf0.9450
AUD/USD $1.0175, $1.0300
NZD/USD $0.8175
The UK's Debt Management Office announced Thursday that it sold Stg1.5 billion of the new 0.125% Mar 2024 index-linked Gilt, with a cover of 2.56 times and a real yield -0.441%.
Data:
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) September 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) September +2.0% +2.0% +2.0%
06:45 France CPI, m/m September +0.7% +0.1% -0.3%
06:45 France CPI, y/y September +2.1% +2.3% +2.2%
07:30 U.S. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks -
08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report October
The euro rose against the dollar and the yen, having played incurred at the beginning of the European session losses after lowering the credit rating of Spain. Yesterday, the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Spain's credit rating two notches to BBB-from BBB +, which is close to "junk" status. Growth in the euro may be due to expectations of players that fall Spanish rating can push the country to the formal request for financial assistance, which potentially opens the door to activate the program OMT. In addition, the support of the measure, today reminded the players and the October newsletter ECB.
ECB noted the importance and effectiveness of the program OMT and signaled that he is ready to activate the program as needed. The Bank expects that in 2012 the rate of inflation will not exceed 2%, and then falls below this mark. Despite running the ECB measures, it is expected that the economy "will continue to remain under pressure in the inevitable process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial non-financial sector, as well as high unemployment and uneven recovery processes occurring in the world economy", - stated in the bulletin.
In addition to the German inflation figures for September, which coincided with forecasts (0.0% m / m, +2.0% y / y vs. prev. +2.1%), Today also published a report on the French CPI (+2.2% y / y with the expected increase +2.4% to +2.5% in September, -0.3% m / m vs. 0.0%).
Investors' attention focused on the meeting of finance ministers and central bankers the Group of Seven in Tokyo, which will be held later on Thursday.
The Japanese yen fell against the dollar after Japan's Economy Minister Maehara said that Japan may conduct an intervention on their own, without the approval of the United States, as the interests of Japan and the U.S. conflict in terms of exchange rates. The minister added that the purchase of foreign bonds by the Bank of Japan - one of the ways to increase the monetary base and the Bank of Japan will decide how to buy foreign bonds.
The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar after today's publication of positive statistics on the labor market. As reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in September, the number of employed people in the country grew by 14,500, showing the largest increase in new jobs since May 2012. It should be noted that the figure for the third consecutive month goes better than analysts' expectations.
EUR / USD: pair rose to a new intraday high of $ 1.2935
GBP / USD: pair rose to a new intraday high of $ 1.6051
USD / JPY: pair rose to a new intraday high of Y78.45
At 12:30 GMT, Canada will report on the trade balance and the index of house prices in the primary market in August. At 12:30 the U.S. will release trade balance for August, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits, import prices for September. At 14:00 GMT a speech FOMC Member Jeremy Stein. In the U.S., at 15:00 GMT, there are data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy. At 18:00 GMT the U.S. will provide a monthly report on budget execution. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will issue the index of activity in the service sector in August.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2990/000, $1.2960/65, $1.2950, $1.2920
Bids $1.2820-00, $1.2770-50, $1.2720/15
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6140/60, $1.6100/05, $1.6060, $1.6040/50
Bids $1.5950/40, $1.5925/10
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0300
Bids $1.0225/20, $1.0200, $1.0180, $1.0170, $1.0150
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8100/15, stg0.8080-90
Bids stg0.8020, stg0.8005-995, stg0.7980/75, stg0.7945/40
EUR/JPY
Offers Y102.00, Y101.50, Y101.15/20, Y101.00
Bids Y100.25/20, Y100.00, Y99.70, Y99.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.00, Y78.70, Y78.40/50, Y78.30
Bids Y77.90, Y77.80, Y77.70, Y77.50
Ордера на покупку Y77.90, Y77.80, Y77.70, Y77.50
Sold E2.25bn off-run BTPs vs target E1.5-E2.25bn
- E846mln of 4.75% Sep 2016 BTP; average yield 3.42%, cover 2.22
- E711mln of 4.50% Aug 2018 BTP; average yield 4.06%, cover 2.46
- E693mln of 5.00% Mar 2025 BTP; average yield 5.24%, cover 2.04.
EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2930, $1.2950, $1.2975, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y77.75, Y78.30, Y78.50, Y78.60, Y78.65
EUR/JPY Y100.00, Y100.50
GBP/USD $1.5945-50, $1.6080, $1.6110, $1.6115
USD/CHF Chf0.9375, Chf0.9450
AUD/USD $1.0175, $1.0300
NZD/USD $0.8175
Yesterday the euro rose to one-week low against the U.S. dollar after failing to fall below a key technical level.
The single currency fell to near its 200-day moving average before cutting losses. Earlier, the euro was down, as European finance ministers this week failed to reassure investors as to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis is close to resolution.
As European finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg this week welcomed the determination of Greece to trim its deficit to your budget.
The Canadian dollar fell against most of its most traded currencies against the fact that the concerns about slowing growth in China will have a negative impact on demand for commodities such as oil and gold.
Also, the Canadian dollar fell after it was reported that car sales in China unexpectedly fell, it was the first time in eight months. Also, the company Alcoa Inc (AA) said that the slowdown in growth in the country will lead to a global reduction in demand for aluminum. Note that raw materials account for about half of Canada's export revenue, and China, which is the world's largest consumer of metals and energy.
Pound broke his three-day losing streak against the dollar, up from its lowest level in four weeks after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said the UK economy expanded in the third quarter by 0.8%, registering with the highest rates growth over the past five years. Bond yields fell after the governor of the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that inflation targeting should remain the focus of monetary policy.
The Australian dollar rose on the third day after the country sold its most long-term debt over the past thirty years, while increasing demand for assets of the country.
Also, the currency rose against the fact that the price of iron ore, which is the largest export product in Australia, rose to two-month high. Demand for currency was reduced in anticipation of tomorrow's report on the unemployment rate, which is expected to have grown to a three-month high.
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation October +2.4% +2.6%
00:30 Australia Unemployment rate September 5.1% 5.3% 5.4%
00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed September -8.8 4.4 14.5
01:00 G20 G20 Meetings -
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence September 40.5 41.2 40.1
The Dollar Index touched a one-month high after Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s debt rating to one level above junk, boosting demand for the greenback as a haven. S&P lowered Spain’s rating by two levels to BBB- from BBB+ and assigned a negative outlook for its debt. The country’s deepening recession is limiting the government’s policy options and social discontent is likely to intensify, the ratings company said in a statement yesterday. Moody’s Investors Service on Aug. 30 said Spain’s credit rating remains on review for a possible downgrade from Baa3, the company’s lowest investment grade.
The euro weakened against most of its major counterparts before Italy sells bonds today amid concern Europe’s debt crisis is deepening. Italy will auction government bonds today maturing in 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2025.
Australia’s dollar strengthened after data showed the nation’s added the most workers since May. In Australia, the statistics bureau said today the number of people employed climbed 14,500 in September, three times the median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.2825, but later recovered.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was trading around the level of $1.6000.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell below Y78.00, refreshing week’s low.
At 0600GMT, German September final HICP is released, followed by Spanish September final HICP at 0700GMT. Scheduled for 0700GMT, EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy are to speak at a conference "The State of Europe: Escaping the doldrums", to be held in Brussels. At 0800GMT, the ECB is set to publish its October Monthly Bulletin, which is expected to largely be a repeat of the Oct 4 ECB presser statement. At 1400GMT, back in Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, in Berlin. The US calendar starts at 1230GMT, with the release of the Initial Jobless Claims for the October 6 week. Also at 1230GMT, the U.S. August International Trade Balance numbers are released. At 1500GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks data will be released. Later, at 1630GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Pres.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2851 -0,25%
GBP/USD $1,6001 -0,01%
USD/CHF Chf0,9391 -0,13%
USD/JPY Y78,15 -0,13%
EUR/JPY Y100,43 -0,38%
GBP/JPY Y125,04 -0,14%
AUD/USD $1,0219 +0,12%
NZD/USD $0,8164 -0,11%
USD/CAD C$0,9820 +0,42%00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation October +2.4% +2.6%
00:30 Australia Unemployment rate September 5.1% 5.3% 5.4%
00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed September -8.8 4.4
01:00 G20 G20 Meetings -
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence September 40.5 41.2
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) September 0.0% 0.0%
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) September +2.0% +2.0%
06:45 France CPI, m/m September +0.7% +0.1%
06:45 France CPI, m/m September +2.1% +2.3%
07:30 U.S. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks -
08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report October
12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions August -2.3 -1.7
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index August +0.1% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. International trade, bln August -42.0 -43.9
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 367 370
12:30 U.S. Import Price Index September +0.7% +0.7%
14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks -
15:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -0.5
18:00 U.S. Federal budget September -190.5 -4.0
23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index August -0.8% +0.5%
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