Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 20-01-2012.

The euro dropped from a two-week high against the dollar as European stocks fell and Greek officials held debt-swap talks for a third day, damping investor demand for the shared currency.

European officials and Greece’s private bondholders agreed in October to carry out a 50 percent cut in the face value of the nation’s debt by voluntarily exchanging outstanding bonds for new securities, with a goal of reducing the country’s borrowings to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. An accord with bondholders is essential to a second financing package for Greece, which faces a 14.5 billion-euro ($18.7 billion) bond payment on March 20.

Greece and its private creditors are close to a final agreement on the framework of a debt swap plan, with the European Union approving the terms so far agreed, newspaper To Vima reported on its website, without citing anyone.

There are still legal, technical and other details that need to be specified and while progress is being made in meetings in Athens, the negotiations are expected to continue beyond today, the Athens-based newspaper reported on its website.

The dollar rallied versus most of its major counterparts as investors sought the relative safety of the U.S. currency. The Dollar Index (DXY), which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, advanced 0.2 percent to 80.195, rising from the lowest level since Jan. 4. The gauge was still headed for a 1.6 percent weekly drop on reduced demand for a refuge. Purchases of existing U.S. homes climbed 5 percent to a 4.61 million annual pace last month, the most since January 2011, the National Association of Realtors said today.

The Canadian dollar dropped versus the greenback after the nation’s inflation rate fell more than economists anticipated, weakening the argument for higher interest rates.

European stocks retreated from a five-month high as U.S. home sales rose less than forecast, adding to concern that gains in equities have outpaced the outlook for economic growth.

Greek officials and private creditors met for a third day to seek agreement on a debt swap. European officials and bondholders agreed in October to implement a 50 percent cut in the face value of Greek debt by voluntarily exchanging outstanding bonds for new securities, with a goal of reducing borrowings to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020.

The government and creditors reached an initial agreement for a voluntary swap of Greek debt, Proto Thema reported on its website, without saying how it got the information. The parties agreed that new bonds to replace existing Greek debt would be of a 30-year maturity and carry a coupon beginning at 3.1 percent, reach 3.9 percent and go as high as 4.75 percent, the Athens- based newspaper said.

National benchmark indexes fell in 12 of the 18 western European markets today. France’s CAC 40, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX Index all slid 0.2 percent. Greece’s ASE rallied 2.7 percent to a two-month high.

Cie. de Saint-Gobain, Europe’s largest building-materials supplier, led construction shares lower, falling 2 percent.

BP, the U.K.’s second-largest oil company, dropped 3.1 percent to 467.45 pence as crude declined for a third day in New York trading.

Petrofac Ltd. fell 4.3 percent to 1,440 pence, dropping for a sixth day, as JPMorgan Chase & Co. downgraded the shares.

Meyer Burger Technology AG, the biggest maker of solar- panel manufacturing equipment, sank 6.6 percent to 17.8 Swiss francs as Germany said it will increase the frequency of cuts to solar subsidies. Solarworld AG (SWV) slid 6.5 percent to 4.04 euros in Frankfurt trading.

Most U.S. stocks declined, snapping a three-day advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid disappointing quarterly results at companies including Google Inc., American Express Co.  and General Electric Co.

Google, owner of the most popular Internet search engine, fell 8 percent as revenue and profit missed estimates. American Express, the largest credit-card issuer by purchases, and GE (GE) slid more than 1.2 percent as sales trailed forecasts. Microsoft (MSFT) Corp., International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) and Intel Corp. (INTC) rose at least 1.6 percent as results beat projections.

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose for a third month in December to the highest level since January 2011, a sign the housing market ended last year with momentum. Greek officials and private creditors entered a third day of negotiations on a debt swap deal that’s crucial to lowering the country’s borrowings and freeing up a second round of international aid.

Google tumbled 8 percent to $588.55. Chief Executive Officer Larry Page is moving into new markets to ignite growth outside Google’s traditional search-based business. That effort contributed to an 8 percent drop in the average price Google gets when users click an ad, because it charges less for ads on mobile devices and in emerging markets, said Herman Leung, an analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group.

GE fell 1.2 percent to $18.93. Revenue dropped 8 percent to $38 billion from $41.2 billion a year earlier, including the sale of NBC Universal. That’s lower than the average estimate of $40 billion from 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

American Express lost 2 percent to $49.95. The company reported fourth quarter revenue of $7.74 billion, missing the average analyst projection of $7.9 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Profit excluding some items beat analysts’ estimates as card spending reached a record.

Fifth Third Bancorp sank 4.6 percent to $12.94. Ohio’s largest lender reported fourth-quarter sales of $1.46 billion, missing the average analyst estimate of $1.52 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

IBM gained 4 percent to $187.69 after forecasting 2012 earnings that beat analysts’ estimates as fourth-quarter profit rose 4.4 percent because of rising software demand.

Microsoft added 3.9 percent to $29.21. The company’s Xbox business got a boost from Christmas shoppers, who snapped up its video-game consoles and Kinect sensor controllers, and signed up for the Xbox Live online service.

Intel increased 1.6 percent to $26.04. The chipmaker predicted first-quarter revenue that may top analysts’ estimates, signaling that the shortage of disk drives that throttled personal computer production may be ending.

Schlumberger Ltd. rose 1 percent to $73.60. The world’s largest oilfield-services provider said fourth-quarter profit rose 36 percent as higher crude prices pushed oil companies to boost exploration and production spending around the world.

Oil declined for a third day as China manufacturing contracted and protracted negotiations to resolve Greece’s debt crisis fanned concern that Europe’s economy will slow.

Oil fell as the preliminary January reading of a Chinese purchasing managers’ index showed the country’s manufacturing declined for a third month. Talks in Athens on debt swaps entered a third day. Prices extended losses after data showed sales of previously owned U.S. homes grew less than expected.

Crude for February delivery fell to $97.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract expires today. The more active March contract declined $2.13 to $98.41.

Brent oil for March settlement declined $1.37, or 1.2 percent, to $110.18 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5620/30, $1.5600, $1.5580, $1.5545/50

Bids $1.5500, $1.5470

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3075/85, $1.3050, $1.3020/25, $1.3000, $1.2985, $1.2920/40

Bids $1.2875, $1.2820

Data:

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) December +0.1% +0.1% -0.4%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) December +5.2% +4.6% +4.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) December -0.4% +0.6% +0.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) December +0.7% +2.4% +2.6%

The euro fell as European stocks fell and Greek officials and private creditors struggled to reach an agreement on a debt-swap plan.

The dollar rallied versus most of its major counterparts as investors sought the relative safety of the U.S. currency.

The euro was still headed for its first five-day gain in seven weeks after Spain and France sold bonds at lower yields yesterday.

European officials and Greece’s private bondholders agreed in October to carry out a 50 percent cut in the face value of the nation’s debt by voluntarily exchanging outstanding bonds for new securities, with a goal of reducing the country’s borrowings to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. An accord with bondholders is essential to a second financing package for Greece, which faces a 14.5 billion-euro ($18.7 billion) bond payment on March 20.

EUR/USD: the pair receded from the high in $1,2900 area.

GBP/USD: the pair has fallen in $1,5450 area, but slightly restored later.

USD/JPY: the pair was limited Y77.05-Y77.30.

US data starts at 1500GMT, when the pace of existing home sales is expected to rise to a 4.67 million annual rate in December after the 4.0% rise in November. The pending home sales index posted sharp gains in each of the last two months.

Resistance 3 : $1.3080 (January and Dec 26-28 High)

Resistance 2 : $1.2985/00 (session high, psychological level, МА (200) for Н4)

Resistance 1 : $1.2930 (intraday high)

Current price: $1.2916

Support 1 : $1.2880 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2850 (38,2 % FIBO $1,2620-$ 1,2985, resistance line from Nov 9 broken earlier)

Support 3 : $1.2800 (50,0 % FIBO $1,2620-$ 1,2985)

EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2950(large), $1.2975, $1.3000(large), $1.3050 

USD/JPY Y76.55, Y76.80, Y77.00, Y77.40 

AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0400, $1.0460, $1.0500

GBP/USD $1.5660

USD/CAD C$1.0015, C$0.9985

EUR/JPY Y101.00, Y101.50

EUR/GBP stg0.8355

EUR/AUD A$1.2600

USD/NZD $0.7890

00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q IV quarter 0.0% +0.6% +2.5%

00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q IV quarter +4.0% -2.0% -1.5%

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI January 48.7 48.8

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m November +0.8% -0.6% -1.1%

The dollar and yen headed for weekly losses against most major peers amid U.S. data pointing to recovery in the world’s biggest economy, reducing demand for refuge assets.

The greenback touched a two-week low versus Europe’s currency before a report forecast to show sales of existing U.S. homes rose to the highest in 1 1/2 years.

The euro strengthened yesterday as Spain and France sold bonds at lower yields in their first sales of medium and long-term debt since being downgraded by Standard & Poor’s. Greece heads into a third day of talks with private creditors on a debt-swap plan.

The Australian dollar were poised for a fifth weekly advance as sovereign-debt sales in Europe signaled the region’s fiscal crisis is being contained, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.

A preliminary reading of a purchasing managers’ index (MXAP) for manufacturing in China showed an increase to 48.8 this month from a final figure of 48.7 in December, according to data published by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. An index above 50 means the number of manufacturers who said conditions improved was greater than the number saying they deteriorated.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair showed new week’s high at $1.2985.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair showed new week’s high at $1.5500.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain.

On Friday UK data at 0930GMT sees Retail Sales as well as Bank of England Trends in Lending data.UK data at 0930GMT sees Retail Sales as well as Bank of England Trends in Lending data. US data starts at 1500GMT, when the pace of existing home sales is expected to rise to a 4.67 million annual rate in December after the 4.0% rise in November. The pending home sales index posted sharp gains in each of the last two months.

Asian stocks rose, spurring a record start to the year for the regional benchmark index, amid signs China will relax credit controls and after confidence among U.S. home builders beat estimates.

Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker by market value, advanced 1.4 percent in Tokyo.

Sumco Corp. (3436) led gains in semiconductor-related companies after ASML Holding NV, Europe’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, forecast higher first- quarter orders.

Agile Property Holdings (3383) Ltd., a Chinese property developer, rose 6.9 percent in Hong Kong on speculation China may ease capital requirements for lenders.

European stocks gained for a fourth day, extending a five-month high for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as Spain and France sold bonds at lower yields and fewer Americans than forecast filed claims for jobless benefits.

France auctioned 7.97 billion euros of two-, three- and four-year notes in its first sale of medium- and long-term debt after losing its AAA rating at Standard & Poor’s last week. Yields fell on all maturities.

Spain sold 6.6 billion euros of bonds maturing in 2016, 2019 and 2022 today, compared with a maximum target for the sale of 4.5 billion euros. The yields on the 2022 and 2019 securities declined, while the 2016 borrowing costs increased.

In the U.S., initial jobless-benefit claims plunged by 50,000 to 352,000 in the week ended Jan. 14, the lowest level since April 2008, Labor Department figures showed. Bank of America Corp., the second-largest U.S. lender, swung to a fourth-quarter profit as the company sold assets and built capital faster than expected.

National benchmark indexes rose in all of Europe’s 18 western markets, except Iceland. Commerzbank surged 15 percent, the biggest jump since October. Germany’s second-largest lender said the measures it can take to boost capital or reduce the equivalent in risk-weighted assets by June 30 total 6.3 billion euros, outstripping the 5.3 billion euros required by the European Banking Authority.

BNP Paribas SA jumped 8.2 percent while Deutsche Bank AG rallied 8.4 percent. Barclays Plc gained 10 percent and UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, gained 8.1 percent as Morgan Stanley named them all among its “most preferred” bank stocks.

Alstom jumped 14 percent, the biggest gain since 2008. The company said it has more than 1 billion euros of announced contracts yet to be booked in its fiscal year, which runs through March.

Porsche SE rose 8.3 percent after Manager Magazin reported that the German sports-car maker offered to settle claims by U.S. investors tied to its failed takeover attempt for Volkswagen AG in 2008. Porsche made the offer dependent on the investors waiving possible new claims in the future, the magazine reported.

U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a third straight day, as Bank of America Corp. rallied after swinging to a profit and jobless claims plunged to the lowest level in almost four years.

Besides earnings optimism, stocks rose today as fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time applications for unemployment benefits last week, easing concern that post- holiday firings were on the rise. Equities briefly erased gains as the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 7.3 from 6.8 in December, trailing the median forecast for a reading of 10.3.

Bank of America (ВАС) rallied 1.84 percent, the most in the Dow. Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan is cutting assets, expenses and staff while raising capital to meet demands from regulators for a larger cushion against unexpected losses. So far, $50 billion in holdings are gone, and Moynihan’s Project New BAC will eliminate at least 30,000 jobs as the firm seeks to save $5 billion annually.

Morgan Stanley climbed 5.4 percent. Morgan Stanley posted the only increase in trading revenue excluding accounting gains among the five largest Wall Street banks in 2011, making progress toward Chairman and Chief Executive Officer James Gorman’s goal of boosting market share.

EBay Inc. jumped 3.9 percent. The largest Internet marketplace reported sales and profit that topped analysts’ estimates, buoyed by a campaign to promote its expanded retail offerings and broader use of the PayPal online- payments service.

Johnson Controls Inc. plunged 8.77 percent. The largest U.S. auto supplier lowered its forecast for profit for the fiscal year on weakening demand for replacement batteries and a reduced outlook for vehicle assembly in Europe.

Change % Change Last

Oil $100.40 +0.01 +0.01%

Gold $1,655.40 +0.90 +0.05%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,640 +89.10 +1.04%

Hang Seng 19,943 +256.03 +1.30%

S&P/ASX 200 4,215 -3.11 -0.07%

Shanghai Composite 2,296 +29.69 +1.31%

CAC 40 3,312 +46.83 +1.43%

DAX 6,384 +29.25 +0.46%

Dow 12,623.98 +45.03 +0.36%

Nasdaq 2,788.33 +18.62 +0.67%

S&P 500 1,314.50 +6.46 +0.49%

00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q IV quarter 0.0% +0.6%

00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q IV quarter +4.0% -2.0%

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 48.7

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m November +0.8% -0.6%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) December +0.1% +0.1%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) December +5.2% +4.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) December -0.4% +0.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) December +0.7% +2.4%

12:00 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m December +0.1% -0.1%

12:00 Canada Consumer price index, y/y December +2.9% +2.8%

12:00 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m December +0.1% -0.2%

12:00 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y December +2.1% +2.2%

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m November +0.9% +1.2%

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales December 4.42 4.65

15:00 U.S. API Monthly Report January