Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 25-01-2012.

The dollar fell to the weakest level in a month against the euro after the Federal Reserve extended its pledge to hold its target for the federal funds rate low until late 2014 amid a “highly accommodative” monetary policy. The central bank had previously pledged to keep its rate target in place until mid-2013. Nine of 17 Federal Reserve officials expect borrowing costs will remain below 1 percent at the end of 2014, with six officials expecting zero rates to remain into 2015. The projections by Federal Open Market Committee participants, released for the first time today in Washington, provide an unprecedented look at policy makers’ plans for the path of the benchmark interest rate, which has remained near zero since December 2008. An increase in 2014 would mark the first rise in the fed funds rate since June 2006. Policy makers also lowered their estimates for growth and inflation in 2012, a move consistent with their statement earlier today that interest rates will remain “exceptionally low” through at least late 2014.

The yen fell against most its major counterparts after the Ministry of Finance said Japan’s exports dropped 8 percent in December from a year earlier. The median estimate of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 7.4 percent decline. The Japanese currency is viewed as a safe haven because the nation’s trade surplus makes the currency attractive because it means the nation doesn’t have to rely on overseas lenders.

European stocks fell for a second day after Ericsson AB and Novartis AG posted earnings that missed analysts’ estimates. The U.K. economy shrank in the fourth quarter more than economists had forecast as manufacturers cut output and services stagnated, leaving Britain on the brink of another recession. Bank of England policy makers voted unanimously this month to keep their target for bond purchases unchanged, with some officials saying more stimulus is “likely” to be needed after the current program is complete.

The Federal Reserve will release rate forecasts for the first time today. Business and political leaders gathered in Davos, Switzerland, for the start of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting.

National benchmark indexes fell in 12 of the 18 western- European markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index slid 0.5 percent, France’s CAC 40 Index declined 0.3 percent and Germany’s DAX Index added less than 0.1 percent.

Ericsson, the world’s largest maker of wireless networks, plunged 14 percent after reporting fourth-quarter net income that missed analysts’ estimates.

Novartis, Europe’s biggest drugmaker by sales, declined 2.5 percent.

ARM Holdings Plc climbed 3 percent after Apple Inc. posted quarterly profit that more than doubled. ARM is the U.K. owner of chip technology used in Apple’s iPhone and iPad.

U.S. stocks rose, erasing an earlier loss in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as the Federal Reserve said interest rates will remain low until late 2014 and Apple Inc. rallied after earnings more than doubled.

Federal Reserve officials said their benchmark interest rate will stay low until at least late 2014 and anticipate that unemployment will remain high and inflation “subdued.” The Fed extended its previous pledge to keep rates low at least until the middle of 2013 as inflation remains tame and more than two years of economic growth have failed to push unemployment below 8.5 percent.

Apple rallied 6 percent to $445.64. The gain gives Apple a market value of about $419 billion, higher than Exxon Mobil Corp.’s $414 billion. Quarterly profit more than doubled as surging demand for the iPhone and iPad cemented its role as the most valuable technology company and ramped up pressure on rivals Google Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co.

Textron Inc. added 16 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $24.97. Chief Executive Officer Scott Donnelly is working to leverage the company’s businesses with measures such as having Cessna and Bell share overseas service centers and sales forces. Textron is winding down its finance unit, which struggled during the recession.

Xerox lost 8.6 percent to $7.93. The provider of printers and business services gave earnings forecasts that trailed some analysts’ estimates as companies curb spending. Xerox is relying on demand for business services to boost sales as a slowing global economy weighs on information-technology spending.

Nvidia declined 1.7 percent to $14.68. The company followed other PC chipmakers in reporting lower-than-anticipated sales, hurt by last year’s flooding in Thailand. The disaster shut down production of disk drives, leading to a decline in computer shipments.

Data:

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate January 107.2 107.7 108.3

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (preliminary) IV quarter +0.6% -0.1% -0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (preliminary) IV quarter +0.5% +0.8% +0.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals December 34.7 35.3 36.2

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance January -23 -19 -16

The euro fell  after the European Central Bank was said to oppose restructuring its Greek bonds, adding to concern the nation will fail to win a deal to reduce its debt.

The yen slumped to the weakest level in almost two months against the U.S. currency after Japan reported its first annual trade deficit in 31 years, stoking concern the country’s fiscal health may deteriorate.

The dollar climbed before the Federal Open Market Committee’s first release of interest-rate forecasts. Australia’s currency climbed against the yen after the nation’s core inflation accelerated more than forecast.

EUR/USD: the pair showed low in area $1,2930. The rate receded later in $1,2950 area.

GBP/USD: the pair showed low in area $1,5530. The rate receded later in $1,5570 area.

USD/JPY: the pair become stronger above Y78.00.

At 1500GMT, NAR pending home sales are due along with the FHFA Home Price Index and also BLS Mass Layoffs data. This is followed at 1530GMT by the weekly EIA crude oil stocks data. At 1730GMT, the US Federal Open Market Committee decision is due. Also, this time around, from 1900GMT, the Federal Reserve will publish the FOMC participants federal funds rate projections for the first time, which will be ccompanied by updated quarterly economic assumptions. After this, at 1915GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a news conference to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decision.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3120/30, $1.3100, $1.3075/85, $1.2995/005

Bids $1.2930/20, $1.2910/00, $1.2885/80, $1.2860/50

EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050-60, $1.3100

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y77.75, Y78.00

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0475, $1.0400

EUR/GBP stg0.8300 

GBP/USD $1.5500

Asia’s benchmark stock index maintained gains for a sixth day after a stalemate emerged between European policy makers and Greek bondholders.

Nintendo Co. (7974), a Japanese maker of video-game players that gets 34 percent of its sales in Europe, rose 1.5 percent.

Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (MBN), an Australian nickel producer, slumped 13 percent after analysts cut their recommendations on the stock.

Elpida Memory Inc. (6665) advanced 4.6 percent after a newspaper reported the chipmaker is in merger talks with Micron Technology Inc. and Nanya Technology Corp. (2408)

European stocks declined from a five-month high as the region’s finance ministers failed to agree on a debt-swap deal for Greece and called for a greater contribution from bondholders.

The region’s finance ministers, meeting in Brussels yesterday, balked at putting up more public money for Greece, calling on bondholders to provide greater debt relief in order to point the way out of the two-year-old debt crisis.

National benchmark indexes fell in 14 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 lost 0.5 percent, as did the U.K.’s FTSE 100. Germany’s DAX retreated 0.3 percent.

A gauge of banking shares fell 1 percent. Societe Generale retreated 5.4 percent to 21.57 euros. Credit Agricole lost 4.1 percent to 5 euros. Societe Generale, France’s second-largest lender, and Credit Agricole had their ratings downgraded to A from A+, with a stable outlook, S&P said yesterday.

Petroplus sank 84 percent to 24 centimes, its biggest decline and the lowest price since it issued shares to the public in November 2006. The company said it plans to file for insolvency in Switzerland and other jurisdictions. The Swiss refiner that has been trying to avoid bankruptcy had about $1 billion in credit lines suspended last month, preventing it from supplying its plants with crude.

Siemens declined 1.3 percent to 77.39 euros. The company said achieving its full-year goals has become harder to reach after profitability at its four divisions slipped as the debt crisis weighs on the economy.

U.S. stocks retreated, ending a five-day advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid a stalemate between European finance ministers and Greek bondholders over how to resolve the nation’s debt crisis.

Global stocks slumped as European finance ministers pushed bondholders to provide greater debt relief for Greece, spurring concern the nation may fail to make a March 20 bond payment. The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for the global economy. President Barack Obama tonight will lay out what he calls a “blueprint” for revitalizing the economy in his third State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress. The Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting.

Travelers Cos., the only insurer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, sank 3.8 percent as earnings fell.

McDonald’s Corp. slid 2.2 percent as the restaurant chain said foreign-currency fluctuations will cut 2012 profit.

Verizon Communications Inc. lost 1.6 percent after the phone company reported a loss.

EMC Corp. advanced 7.3 percent to $25.14 after reporting a 32 percent increase in fourth-quarter earnings as data growth spurs demand for its products and software from majority-owned

Resistance 3 : $1.3200 (Dec 21 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3130 (Dec 20 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3065/75 (area of Jan 3-4 and 24 highs)

The current price: $1.3024

Support 1 : $1.2950 (Jan 24 low)

Support 2 : $1.2875/85 (area of Jan 20-23 lows)

Support 3 : $1.2840 (Jan 19 low)

Change % Change Last

Oil $99.09 +0.14 +0.14%

Gold $1,665.50 +1.00 +0.06%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,785 +19.43 +0.22%

Hang Seng Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,224 -0.88 -0.02%

Shanghai Composite Closed

CAC 40 3,323 -15.77 -0.47%

DAX 6,419 -17.40 -0.27%

Dow 12,675.75 -33.07 -0.26%

Nasdaq 2,786.64 +2.47 +0.09%

S&P 500 1,314.63 -1.37 -0.10%

00:00 China Bank holiday 0

00:30 Australia CPI, q/q IV quarter +0.6% +0.2%

00:30 Australia CPI, y/y IV quarter +3.5% +3.3%

02:00 U.S. President Obama Speaks 0

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report 0

08:00 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks 0

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate January 107.2 107.7

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings 0

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes 0

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q  (preliminary) IV quarter +0.6% -0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y  (preliminary) IV quarter +0.5% +0.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals December 34.7 35.3

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance January -23 -19

13:15 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks 0

15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) December +7.3% -0.3%

15:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change 20/01/12 -3.4

19:15 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0 0.25% 0.25%

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 0 2.50% 2.50%