Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 20-04-2012.

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  • Recovery will be moderate, downside risks remain;

  • We are concerned about rising oil prices and if necessary take action;

  • IMF resources are available to all participants;

  • High volatility means the pressure on European markets.

Board member of the European Central Bank Klaas Knot told the media about his belief that the International Monetary Fund will achieve its goal to increase the financial resources to at least $ 350 billion Knot This suggests that the IMF will in general difficulty to obtain guarantees for the provision of $ 400 billion to $ 500 billion.

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  • Inflation expectations remain restrained

  • Spain and its banking system is no need of help

  • Do not see the need for a third three-year operation LTRO

  • There is no reason to resume purchases of bonds

  • The ECB forecasts on economic growth remain unchanged

EUR/USD $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.2950  

USD/JPY Y80.50, Y81.00, Y81.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9150, Chf0.9250

GBP/USD $1.6000

EUR/JPY Y106.00

AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0325, $1.0335

EUR/GBP stg0.8200

NZD/USD $0.8190

Data:
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) March +0.4% +0.5% +0.6%
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) March +3.2% +3.1% +3.3%
08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate April 109.8 109.6 109.9
08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment April 117.4 117.0 117.5
08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations April 102.7 102.3 102.7
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) March -0.8% +0.4% +1.8%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) March +1.0% +1.5% +3.3%

The shared currency rose amid speculation Group of 20 officials meeting with the International Monetary Fund today will step up efforts to quell Europe’s debt crisis.
The Munich-based Ifo institute said today its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, rose to 109.9 from 109.8 in March. Economists forecast a drop to 109.5, according to the median estimate of economists.
The pound was bound for its biggest weekly gain versus the dollar since January after U.K. retail sales rose at the fastest pace in more than a year, beating economist estimates.
The U.K. currency was set to strengthen this week against all but one of its major peers tracked by Bloomberg as a report showed sales including auto fuel gained 1.8 percent in March from the previous month, when they fell 0.8 percent, the Office for National Statistics said in London. The median forecast of economists in a survey was for a 0.5 percent gain.

EUR/USD: the pair grown, showed high above $1,3200.

GBP/USD: the pair grown in $1.6100 area.

USD/JPY: the pair grown in Y81,70 area.

EUR/USD
Offers $1.3280, $1.3230/50, $1.3220
Bids $1.3085/80, $1.3050, $1.3120/00, $1.3075/40, $1.3020, $1.3000/990

GBP/USD
Offers $1.6220/25, $1.6200, $1.6175, $1.6150, $1.6120/30
Bids $1.6085/80, $1.6065/60, $1.6010/00

USD/JPY
Offers Y82.50/60, Y82.30/35, Y81.90/00
Bids Y81.50, Y81.00, Y80.75/70, Y80.55/50, Y80.30

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0460/65, $1.0450/55, $1.0430/35, $1.0400, $1.0370/90
Bids $1.0300, $1.0275/70, $1.0255/50, $1.0225

EUR/JPY
Offers Y109.50/55, Y109.20/25, Y108.60/65, Y108.35/40
Bids Y107.45/40, Y107.00, Y106.85/80, Y106.55/50, Y106.20/10

Resistance 3: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)
Resistance 2: Y82.15 (МА (200) for Н4)
Resistance 1: Y81.90 (Apr 10 high)
Current price: Y81.73
Support 1: Y81.50 (area of session low)
Support 2: Y81.00 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3: Y80.30/20 (area of Feb 29, Apr 16-17 lows)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9210 (Apr 18 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9160 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9120/30 (earlier support, area of Apr 17 and 19 lows)
Current price: Chf0.9111
Support 1: Chf0.9090 (Apr 12 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9000 (area of April and March lows, psychological level)
Support 3: Chf0.8930 (low of February)

Resistance 3 : $1.3390 (highs of April and March)
Resistance 2 : $1.3250 (Mar 29 low)
Resistance 1 : $1.3210 (Apr 12 high)
Current price: $1.3192
Support 1 : $1.3170 (earlier resistance, Apr 17 and 19 highs)
Support 2 : $1.3120 (МА (200) for Н1, support line from Apr 16)
Support 3 : $1.3060 (Apr 18 low)

EUR/USD $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.2950  

USD/JPY Y80.50, Y81.00, Y81.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9150, Chf0.9250

GBP/USD $1.6000

EUR/JPY Y106.00

AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0325, $1.0335

EUR/GBP stg0.8200

NZD/USD $0.8190

01:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter I +2.5% 0.0% -1.2%

01:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter I -1.5% -3.0% -7.0%

The yen was set to decline against most of its 16 major counterparts this week on prospects the Bank of Japan will add to monetary easing at its next meeting on April 27 to achieve its inflation goal. The currency was 0.2 percent from its lowest level in a week versus the dollar after BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said in a speech in Washington that Japan still needs monetary stimulus.

The euro was near a 20-month low against the British pound before data today that may show Germany’s business confidence fell this month. Meetings hosted by the International Monetary Fund start today in Washington, where Group of 20 officials are gathering to discuss Europe’s debt crisis.

German business confidence probably declined for the first time in six months in April as the resurgent sovereign debt crisis threatens to curb growth. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, will drop to 109.5 from 109.8 in March, according to the median forecast of 40 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Europe’s largest economy contracted in the final quarter of last year as spending cuts across the euro region, its largest export market, damped demand for its goods.

New Zealand’s dollar traded within 0.2 percent of a one- week low as Asian stocks extended a decline in global shares. Demand for the so-called Aussie was also limited after a report today showed export prices in the first three months of the year fell for a second quarter. Australia’s export price index dropped 7 percent from the fourth quarter, when it declined 1.5 percent, the statistics bureau said today.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.3125-$1.3155.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.6035-$1.6060.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair receded from yesterday's high.

European data starts at 0600GMT Friday with Germany PPI. Then at 0800GMT by the German IFO business survey. UK data at 0830GMT sees Retail Sales for March, which are expected to bounce 0.4% m/m, 1.4% y/y (1.3% y/y ex-fuel). On the upside, the British Retail Consortium reported that the warm weather boosted sales  of spring clothing ranges in March. US data is limited to the 1400GMT release of BLS state unemployment data.

Yesterday the yen fell against most of its major counterparts as Bank of Japan officials signaled they’ll keep acting to stem its strength to spur economic growth. The Bank of Japan is “committed” to monetary easing, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said yesterday in a speech in New York. Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura said the central bank is ready to implement additional easing if necessary. Japan had a trade deficit of 82.6 billion yen ($1 billion) in March, versus a revised surplus of 29.4 billion yen in the previous month, data showed. The prediction was for a 223.2 billion-yen shortfall.

Europe’s shared currency fluctuated versus the dollar after yields on Spanish 10-year benchmark bonds and French five-year debt increased at auctions. Spain sold 2.54 billion euros ($3.33 billion) of two- and 10-year securities and France raised 10.5 billion euros in debt out of an 11 billion-euro goal. The yield on the 10-year Spanish note was 5.743 percent, compared with 5.403 percent when it was last sold in January. France’s five-year notes yielded 1.83 percent, up from 1.78 percent on March 15.

EUR/USD: yesterday in first half of day the pair decreased, however could will be restored later.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair gain, traded nearby $1.6050.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair rose updated a week’s high.

European data starts at 0600GMT Friday with Germany PPI. Then at 0800GMT by the German IFO business survey. UK data at 0830GMT sees Retail Sales for March, which are expected to bounce 0.4% m/m, 1.4% y/y (1.3% y/y ex-fuel). On the upside, the British Retail Consortium reported that the warm weather boosted sales  of spring clothing ranges in March. US data is limited to the 1400GMT release of BLS state unemployment data.

Resistance 3: Y83.00 (Apr 3 high)

Resistance 2: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)

Resistance 1: Y81.85 (Apr 10 high)

The current price: Y81.63

Support 1: Y81.15 (Apr 19 low)

Support 2: Y80.85 (Apr 18 low)

Support 3: Y80.30 (Apr 16 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9250 (Apr 16 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9195/10 (area of Apr 18-19 highs)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9155 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9143

Support 1: Chf0.9120/25 (area of Apr 17-19 lows)

Support 2: Chf0.9090 (Apr 12 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9070 (Apr 2 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6165 (Oct 31 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6130 (Nov 8 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6075 (Apr 19 high)

The current price: $1.6060

Support 1 : $1.6005 (Apr 19 low)

Support 2 : $1.5960/70 (area of Apr 13-17 highs)

Support 3 : $1.5910 (Apr 16 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.3240 (Apr 4 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3215 (Apr 12 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3165/75 (area of Apr 17-19 highs)

The current price: $1.3143

Support 1 : $1.3125 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3055/65 (area of Apr 18-19 lows)

Support 3 : $1.3030 (Apr 9 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3118 -0,12%

GBP/USD $1,6016 -0,22%

USD/CHF Chf0,9160 +0,11%

USD/JPY Y81,28 -0,39%

EUR/JPY Y106,62 -0,53%

GBP/JPY Y130,17 -0,62%

AUD/USD $1,0355 +0,21%

NZD/USD $0,8156 +0,16%

USD/CAD C$0,9910 -0,39%

01:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter I +2.5% 0.0%

01:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter I -1.5% -3.0%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) March +0.4% +0.5%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) March +3.2% +3.1%

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate April 109.8 109.6

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment April 117.4 117.0

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations April 102.7 102.3

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) March -0.8% +0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) March +1.0% +1.5%

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m March +0.4% +0.5%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y March +2.6% +2.1%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m March +0.4% +0.3%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y March +2.3% +1.9%

12:30 Canada Leading Indicators, m/m March +0.6% +0.4%