Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 25-04-2012.

The dollar rose against the euro and the yen after the Federal Reserve refrained from new actions to stimulate the economy. The Fed kept intact its program to exchange $400 billion in shorter-term holdings for longer-term debt, dubbed Operation Twist and scheduled to expire in June. Policy makers led by Bernanke are holding off on additional steps to boost the economy amid signs the more than two-year expansion is gaining strength. Still, the jobless rate isn’t declining fast enough to satisfy central bankers, who repeated their view today that borrowing costs are likely to remain “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014.

The dollar fell earlier as U.S. durable-goods orders dropped by the most in three years. U.S. durable goods orders slid 4.2 percent in March, the biggest decrease since January 2009, after a revised 1.9 percent gain the prior month. Economists forecast a 1.7 percent decrease.

The pound fell today from a seven-month high versus the dollar after a government report showed the U.K. slipped back into recession, backing the case for the Bank of England to extend its asset-purchase program.

• 
  

  • to continue extending maturity of securities

  • to regularly review size, composition of holdings

  • household spending, business investment advance

  • global financial strains still pose significant risk

  • unemployment will decline gradually

  • labor market has improved; unemployment still elevated

  • inflation has picked up, reflecting oil and gas prices

  • housing sector remains depressed

  • long-term inflation expectations stable

  • sees moderate growth, picking up gradually

  • economy has been expanding moderately

• 
  

  • FOMC: Voted 9-1 for Fed funds rate action

  • Fed leaves discount rate unchanged at 0.75%

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3090, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3250

USD/JPY Y80.50, Y81.00, Y82.00, Y82.80, Y83.00

EUR/JPY Y107.00, Y107.90, Y108.75

GBP/USD $1.6030

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200

Data:
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q  (preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% +0.1% -0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y  (preliminary) Quarter I +0.5% +0.3% 0.0%
10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance April -8 -8 -8

The pound fell  after the U.K. economy unexpectedly slipped back into recession, supporting the case for the Bank of England to extend its asset-purchase program.
The U.K. currency dropped from a six-month high versus the dollar after the Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product contracted 0.2 percent last quarter, after shrinking 0.3% in the previous three months. Economists forecast growth of 0.1%.
Short-sterling futures advanced after the GDP report, indicating investors are cutting bets on higher interest rates.
U.K. policy makers kept their benchmark rate at 0.5% at their April 4-5 meeting. Bank of England officials will consider whether to extend their 325 billion-pound quantitative- easing program when they next meet on May 9-10.

EUR/USD: the pair tested resistance in  $1,3230 area then receded in $1,3200 area.

GBP/USD: the pair decreased below $1,6100, showed low on $1,6081. Later the rate restored in $1,6110 area.

USD/JPY: the pair showed low on Y81,06 then receded in Y81,30 area.  

At 1430GMT, the EIA weekly crude oil stocks data is due.  Later on, at 1630GMT, the FOMC meeting statement is due, followed at 1800GMT by the publication of the current economic projections and then at 1815GMT by a press conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

EUR/USD
Offers $1.3280, $1.3250, $1.3240
Bids $1.3180, $1.3160/50, $1.3140/30, $1.3110/00, $1.3085/80, $1.3070, $1.3050

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0380/90, $1.0350/70
Bids $1.0310/00, $1.0280, $1.0260, $1.0225, $1.0200

USD/JPY
Offers Y81.90/00, Y81.50
Bids Y81.05/00, Y80.80, Y80.60/50, Y80.30

EUR/JPY
Offers Y108.60/65, Y108.35/40, Y107.95/00, Y107.75/80
Bids Y107.10/00, Y106.80/75, Y106.55/50, Y106.20/00

Resistance 3: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)
Resistance 2: Y81.80/90 (Apr 10 and 20 highs)
Resistance 1: Y81.55 (session high)
Current price: Y81.21
Support 1: Y81.10 (session low)
Support 2: Y80.85/80 (Apr 24 low, 61,8 % FIBO Y80,30-Y81,80)
Support 3: Y80.30/20 (area of Feb 29, Apr 16-17 lows)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9170 (Apr 23 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9140 (Apr 24 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9110/20 (session high, resistance line from Apr 16)
Current price: Chf0.9092
Support 1: Chf0.9080/70 (Apr 20 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9000 (area of April and March lows, psychological level)
Support 3: Chf0.8930 (area МА (200) for D1 and low of February)

Resistance 3 : $1.6170 (high of October)

Resistance 2 : $1.6130 (support line from Apr 19 broken earlier)

Resistance 1 : $1.6100/10 (intraday high, Apr 24 low)

Current price: $1.6098

Support 1 : $1.6080/70 (area of session low, Apr 23 low and Apr 19 high)

Support 2 : $1.6030 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6170)

Support 3 : $1.6000 (Apr 20 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3300 (resistance line from Feb 29)
Resistance 2 : $1.3250 (Mar 29 low)
Resistance 1 : $1.3230 (area of session high and Apr 20 high)
Current price: $1.3214
Support 1 : $1.3180 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3140 (area of Apr 24 low, МА (200) for Н1 and support line from Apr 19)
Support 3 : $1.3100 (Apr 23 low)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3090, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3250

USD/JPY Y80.50, Y81.00, Y82.00, Y82.80, Y83.00

EUR/JPY Y107.00, Y107.90, Y108.75

GBP/USD $1.6030

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200

00:00 Australia Bank holiday

00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday

The yen fell versus all but one of its 16 major peers on speculation Bank of Japan  officials will add to stimulus measures at a policy meeting this week. All 14 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predict additional easing when Japan’s central bank releases new inflation forecasts on April 27. Most expect an increase in asset purchases ranging from 5 trillion yen ($61.4 billion) to 10 trillion yen.  The yen slid for a second day against the euro as Asian shares extended a global stocks rally, damping demand for haven assets.

The greenback held a drop from yesterday versus the 17- nation euro before the Federal Reserve concludes a two-day gathering today. The Federal Open Market Committee plans to release its policy statement later today. It will publish its forecasts for interest rates, growth, inflation and unemployment. Orders placed with U.S. factories for durable goods probably fell 1.7 percent in March after rising a revised 2.4 percent the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg poll. The Commerce Department will release the data today.

Europe’s shared currency held gains versus the dollar and yen before a Dutch proposal on austerity measures is sent to parliament today for debate this week. Prime Minister Mark Rutte told lawmakers yesterday the need to adopt reforms “hasn’t diminished” after Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party pulled out of budget talks. Rutte spoke one day after he tendered his Cabinet’s resignation to Queen Beatrix. He said new elections may be “possible” on Sept. 12.

Australia’s dollar gained versus the Japanese currency after the first U.S. case of mad cow disease in six years increased prospects demand for Australian beef will rise.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.3190-$1.3205.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.6135-$1.6150.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain to Y81.50.

European events start at 0700GMT when ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give an introductory statement before the European Parliament's Committee of Economic and Monetary Affairs, in Brussels. At 0800GMT, the ECB is due to publish the Eurozone Bank Lending Survey. UK data at 0830GMT includes the latest Index of Services as well as  the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP data. At 1000GMT, the CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey is due. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data, which is followed at 1200GMT by the latest Building Permits Revision and then at 1230GMT by durable goods orders, which are forecast to fall 2.0% in March after rising a revised 2.4% in February. At 1430GMT, the EIA weekly crude oil stocks data is due.  Later on, at 1630GMT, the FOMC meeting statement is due, followed at 1800GMT by the publication of the current economic projections and then at 1815GMT by a press conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

• Data are mixed, highlight prevailing uncertainty

• Growth to be supported by foreign demand, low rates
• Downside growth risks related to sov. debt crisis
• Infl. likely to stay above 2% this year due to oil
• Gov. council expects infl. to fall below 2% in 2013
• Underlying price pressures should remain modest
• Risks to price stability broadly balanced
• Upside risks to infl. from energy, indirect taxes

Yesterday the euro strengthened against most of its major counterparts after Spain, Italy and the Netherlands sold bonds, damping concern the region’s sovereign-debt crisis is worsening. Spain’s bonds gained, pushing yields on two-year notes down 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 3.43 percent after the nation sold 1.9 billion euros ($2.5 billion) of bills. The maximum target was 2 billion euros. Two-year Dutch note yields fell the most in almost five months as the Netherlands sold securities due in 2014 and 2037. Italy’s yields dropped after the nation sold 2.5 billion euros of zero-coupon notes.

Sterling reached a 20-month high against the euro and touched the strongest in more than five months versus the dollar before a report that’s forecast to show U.K. gross domestic product gained 0.1 percent. It shrank 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

The yen dropped versus most major peers amid bets the Bank of Japan will announce further monetary easing policies on April 27. The central bank is “committed” to monetary easing, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said last week in New York.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair gain touched a level $1.3200.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair rose, updated a week’s high.

USD/JPY: yesterday in first half of day the pair fell, however rose on positive territory later.

Resistance 3: Y83.00 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)

Resistance 1: Y81.80 (Apr 20 high)

The current price: Y81.49

Support 1: Y81.30 (session low)

Support 2: Y80.85 (Apr 18 low)

Support 3: Y80.30 (Apr 16 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9170 (Apr 23 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9140 (Apr 24 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9115 (high in the American session on Apr 24)

The current price: Chf0.9104

Support 1: Chf0.9080/90 (area of Apr 20-24 lows)

Support 2: Chf0.9070 (Apr 2 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9000 (Apr 3 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6255 (Sep 2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6205 (Sep 6 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6160 (Apr 24 high)

The current price: $1.6138

Support 1 : $1.6125 (low of the American session on Apr 24)

Support 2 : $1.6075 (Apr 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.6035 (Apr 20 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3300 (psychological level)

Resistance 2 : $1.3240 (Apr 4 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3220/25 (area of Apr 20-24 high)

The current price: $1.3195

Support 1 : $1.3180 (low in the American session on Apr 24)

Support 2 : $1.3145 (Apr 24 low)

Support 3 : $1.3105 (Apr 23 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3194 +0,29%

GBP/USD $1,6141 +0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,9104 -0,32%

USD/JPY Y81,31 +0,18%

EUR/JPY Y107,32 +0,50%

GBP/JPY Y131,24 +0,29%

AUD/USD $1,0322 +0,07%

NZD/USD $0,8129 -0,02%

USD/CAD C$0,9872 -0,34%

00:00 Australia Bank holiday -

00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday -

07:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% +0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (preliminary) Quarter I +0.5% +0.3%

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance April -8 -8

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders March +2.2% -1.3%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation March +1.6% +0.6%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense March +1.7%

14:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change 20.04.2012 +3.9

16:30 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision - 0.25% 0.25%

16:30 U.S. FOMC Statement -

18:15 U.S. Federal Reserve Press Conference -

20:15 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - 2.50% 2.50%

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement -

21:15 U.S. Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks -

23:01 United Kingdom Nationwide Consumer Confidence March 44 42