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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 25-07-2012.
The euro rose against the dollar and the yen, after a five-day decline against the backdrop of a member of the Board of the ECB statement on the provision of the European Fund for Saving the banking license.
Also, the single currency has strengthened against most of the 16 most traded currencies, as the profitability of Spanish and Italian bonds fell against the backdrop of optimism, as the European Stability Fund will help to curb the debt crisis in the region. Yield of 10-year bond fell to Spain's 25 basis points to 7.38% level, while the Italian has declined by 15 basis points to 6.45%. The euro rose against the dollar after data showed that sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in June. The pound fell sharply against the dollar, which was caused by the publication of data on GDP, according to which the UK economy is shrinking the third consecutive quarter.
The Canadian dollar has appreciated significantly during the day against the dollar, updating the previous day at least, that was caused by weak data from USA.
Currently the pair is trading at $ 1.2125
The next support level is $ 1.5390/10 (area of Jul 12-13 lows)
EUR/USD $1.2000, $1.2050, $1.2075, $1.2100
USD/JPY Y77.75
GBP/USD $1.5425
AUD/USD $1.0350
AUD/JPY Y78.95
Data:
08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate July 105.3 104.8 103.3
08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment July 113.9 113.0 111.6
08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations July 97.3 96.8 95.6
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter II -0.3% -0.2% -0.7%
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (preliminary) Quarter II -0.2% -0.3% -0.8%
10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance July -11 -10 -6
During the European session, the euro rose despite weak data on the index of business sentiment in Germany, which fell more economists forecast in July to a minimum by more than 2 years, since the worsening of the debt crisis affected the economic outlook and the company's profits. Index Ifo institute business climate fell to 103.3 in July from 105.2 in June, registering its third consecutive decline and reached the lowest level since March 2010. According to the average forecast of economists expected a more modest decline to 104.5.
Support the single currency has had a performance management board member of the European Central Bank Ewald Nowotny, who said Wednesday that it sees no reason for granting a permanent fund with a banking license in Europe, although the ECB has so far rejected this idea. Also, the euro responded positively to the comments that the EU is going to move forward on the issue of banking supervision at the beginning of September.
The British pound fell after data showed that UK GDP in the second quarter, according to preliminary data, decreased by 0.7% q / q, is expected to decline by 0.2% k / k
EUR / USD: the pair rose to the level of $ 1.2170
GBP / USD: on the news about of GDP the pair rose to $ 1.5551, and then fell to $ 1.5467
USD / JPY: the pair is trading in a range of Y78.10 - Y78.28
In the U.S., will be released at 14:00 GMT housing sales in the primary market in June, and 14:30 GMT - data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy. At 21:00 GMT we will know the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's main interest rate and the accompanying statement will be made by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2275/80, $1.2240/50, $1.2200/10, $1.2180, $1.2150/60
Bids $1.2040, $1.2010/00
EUR/JPY
Offers Y96.00, Y95.50, Y95.20
Bids Y94.45/40, Y94.00, Y93.50
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0375/80, $1.0350, $1.0300
Bids $1.0200, $1.0180/70, $1.0150
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.7920/30, stg0.7895/900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7845/55
Bids stg0.7755/50, stg0.7735/30, stg0.7700/690
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.45/50
Bids Y77.90, Y77.50
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5690/700, $1.5640/50, $1.5625/30, $1.5600, $1.5575/85
Bids $1.5455/50
Resistance 3: Y79.02 (Jul 17 high)
Resistance 2: Y78.72 (MA (200) H1)
Resistance 1: Y78.50 (Jul 23 high)
Current price: Y78.22
Support 1: Y77.93 (Jul 23 low)
Support 2: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)
Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)
Resistance 3: Chf1.0070 (Nov 2010 high)
Resistance 2: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9970 (Jul 24 high)
Current price: Chf0.9873
Support 1: Chf0.9845 (MA (200) H1)
Support 2: Chf0.9795 (Jul 13 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9745 (Jul 17, 19 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5715 (Jul 19, 20 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5615 (session high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5570 (MA (200) H1)
Current Price: $ 1.5504
Support 1: $ 1.5465 (session low)
Support 2: $ 1.5390/10 (area of Jul 12-13 lows)
Support 3: $ 1.5320 (Jun 5 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2320 (area of July 17, 19 high)
Resistance 2 $ 1.2260 (July 13 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2200 (MA(200) H1)
Current Price: $ 1.2138
Support 1: $ 1.2040 (July 23 low)
Support 2: $ 1.2000 (psychological level)
Support 3: $ 1.1925 (Jun 9 low)
Germany alloted E2.322bln 30-year benchmark 2.50% July 2044 Bund Wednesday at an average yield of 2.17% (2.62%) and covered 1.5 times (1.1).
EUR/USD $1.2000, $1.2050, $1.2075, $1.2100
USD/JPY Y77.75
GBP/USD $1.5425
AUD/USD $1.0350
AUD/JPY Y78.95
01:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter II +0.1% +0.6% +0.5%
01:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter II +1.6% +1.3% +1.2%
The euro maintained its longest losing streak in two months versus the dollar before data that may show German business confidence fell to the weakest level since 2010, fueling concern the debt crisis is hurting the region’s economy. The Munich-based Ifo institute is likely to say today its business climate index for Germany dropped to 104.5 in July, the lowest since March 2010, from 105.3 last month, the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey shows. The nation is the euro area’s largest economy, followed by France and Italy.
The 17-nation currency was 0.2 percent from an 11-year low versus the yen after Italy’s borrowing costs rose yesterday, boding ill for the country’s debt auctions this week. Italy’s benchmark 10-year bond yield jumped to as high as 6.598 percent yesterday, with its spread over German bunds widening to the most since Prime Minister Mario Monti took power on Nov. 16. The country is scheduled to sell up to 2.5 billion euros ($3 billion) of zero-coupon notes maturing in 2014 tomorrow and 8.5 billion euros of 184-day bills the next day.
Moody’s Investors Service lowered the rating outlook for the European Financial Stability Facility to negative from stable. Moody’s reduced the outlook for the EFSF’s Aaa rating because it had done the same to three of the facility’s guarantors -- Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg -- earlier this week, the rating company said in a statement today. The EFSF, backed by euro member nations, offers loans to financially struggling countries and buys sovereign debt to maintain market stability.
The yen extended gains from yesterday versus most of its 16 major peers after Japan unexpectedly posted a trade surplus in June. Japan had an unexpected trade surplus of 61.7 billion yen ($789 million) last month, the Ministry of Finance said today. That’s the first surplus in four months and compares with the 140 billion yen deficit forecast by economists.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose slightly after yesterday's fall.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range of $1.5485-$1.5515.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range of Y78.05-Y78.20.
European data for Wednesday starts at 0600GMT with construction orders for May, while at 0800GMT, the latest Italian ISTAT consumer confidence survey is due, at the same time as the German IFO business survey. UK data at 0830GMT sees the May Index of Services release along with preliminary Q2 GDP data. UK data continues at 1000GMT with the CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends survey. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. At 1330GMT, US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies to the House Financial Services Committee on the Financial Stability Oversight Council annual recommendations. US data continues at 1400GMT with New Home Sales data, which is followed at 1430GMT by the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data.
Euro drops the fifth day against the yen, while showing the longest decline since May amid speculation that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is worsening.
Also on the decline of the single currency affect the weak data on the index of business activity in the euro area. The European currency fell to its lowest level against the yen over the past 11 years.
The euro fell below 1.21 against the dollar after ratings agency Moody 's downgraded the credit rating outlook for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg with a "stable" to "negative", amid escalating worries about the crisis in the region.
The Swiss franc also continued to decline, and had almost approached parity with the dollar for the first time since December 2010 against the backdrop of the financial crisis in Europe.
The Australian dollar rose against the dollar for the first time three days after the growth of China's manufacturing index strengthened the export prospects for the country.
Canadian dollar against the dollar during the U.S. session shows a rapid and steady growth, even despite the fact that the published data on retail sales were above expectations.
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses after a private survey showed China’s manufacturing may contract at a slower pace this month and Moody’s Investors Service cut the credit outlook for Germany.
Nikkei 225 8,488.09 -20.23 -0.24%
S&P/ASX 200 4,133.23 +4.29 +0.10%
Shanghai Composite 2,146.59 +5.19 +0.24%
China Railway Construction Corp. Ltd., builder of more than half of the nation’s rail links since 1949, gained 1.8 percent in Hong Kong after signing 20 billion yuan ($3.1 billion) in new contracts.
Nintendo Co., a maker of video-game players that depends on Europe for 34 percent of its sales, dropped 2.1 percent.
SK Telecom Co., the biggest South Korean wireless operator, rose 6 percent in Seoul, after the company’s decision to eliminate some handset subsidies prompted speculation profit will increase.
European stocks retreated for a third day as Moody’s Investors Service lowered its credit outlook for Germany and a measure of manufacturing in the Richmond region of the U.S. plunged.
Elan Corp. tumbled 11 percent after the results of a study for an Alzheimer’s drug failed to show that patients’ symptoms improved. Royal KPN NV (KPN) fell 7.3 percent as the company cut its dividend forecast by 61 percent after quarterly net income missed analysts’ estimates. Swatch Group AG (UHR) gained 2.3 percent after posting sales and profit that increased. Man Group Plc (EMG) surged 4.1 percent after saying it will double its cost cuts.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) slipped 0.5 percent to 250.57 at the close of trading in London.
Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg had the outlooks for their Aaa credit ratings lowered to negative by Moody’s after markets closed yesterday. The ratings company cited the risk that Greece will leave the 17-nation euro currency and the “increasing likelihood” of collective support for European countries such as Spain and Italy, according to a statement.
German manufacturing and services output contracted in July more than economists had forecast. An index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry declined to 43.3 this month from 45 in June.
National benchmark indexes in 15 of the 18 western-European markets retreated today.
FTSE 100 5,499.23 -34.64 -0.63% CAC 40 3,074.68 -26.85 -0.87% DAX 6,390.41 -28.92 -0.45%
STMicroelectronics NV (STM) dropped 4.3 percent to 3.77 euros, after earlier declining as much as 7 percent. Europe’s largest chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue will grow by about 2.5 percent, indicating sales will miss analysts’ estimates amid weaker demand for the company’s products.
Endesa SA (ELE) fell 5.8 percent to 11.63 euros.
Swatch rose 2.3 percent to 369.90 Swiss francs. The biggest maker of Swiss watches reported first-half profit that beat analysts’ estimates as sales of Omega and Longines timepieces to Chinese consumers increased.
Man Group rallied 4.1 percent to 72 pence. The world’s biggest publicly traded hedge fund manager also said it plans to sell fewer so-called guaranteed products that generate high commissions for employees.
Software AG (SOW) rallied 11 percent to 25.98 euros after the company raised the forecast for its Enterprise Transaction Systems in 2012. Germany’s second-biggest software maker also posted a 46 percent increase in revenue from its Business Process Excellence licenses in the second quarter.
SAP AG (SAP) climbed 3.5 percent to 50.77 euros. The largest maker of business-management software is beating rivals to contracts as companies limit their spending amid slowing economies.
Croda International Plc (CRDA) gained 6.1 percent to 2,364 pence, its lowest price since at least 1989. The maker of cosmetic ingredients reported first-half pretax profit before one-off items of 67.5 million pounds ($105 million). That beat the average estimate of 66.2 million pounds in a survey of analysts
The indices ended the session in negative territory because of persistent pressure due to concerns about the worsening debt crisis in Europe.Today, such fears fueled reports of reduced forecasts for the credit ratings of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to negative from stable by international rating agency Moody's, as well as the weaknesses of the preliminary data for European PMI index for the manufacturing and service sectors, most of which came out worse than expected and still and below 50 points.
Chinese PMI index from HSBC, which has also been published and was well below the 50 points marked negative impact has not had, as though recorded a slowdown in the industry, but at the same time showing that the pace of decline slowed down (at the end of July the index was at 49.5 compared to 48.2 in June). Today's session was not saturated with the publication of important macroeconomic data.
As part of the index DOW almost all components are in red. The growth shows only those components: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, +0.44%), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT, +0.25%), The Home Depot, Inc. (HD, +0.16%).
Most of all fell into the share price of Cisco Systems (CSCO), which fell in price by more than 6.32%. The pressure on the company's shares have lower expectations of its market share of corporate software.
Branches in the context of the S & P 500 all the sectors are in negative territory. Most other basic materials sector fell (-1.7%).
At the time of closure:
Dow -104.14 12,617.32 -0.82%
Nasdaq -27.16 2,862.99 -0.94%
S&P -12.20 1,338.32 -0.90%
Resistance 3: Y79.20 (Jul 17 high, MA (50) D1)
Resistance 2: Y78.70/80 (area of Jul 19- 20 highs, MA (200) H1)
Resistance 1: Y78.50 (Jul 23 high)
Current price: Y78.17
Support 1: Y78.05 (session low)
Support 2: Y77.95 (Jul 23 low)
Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)
Resistance 3: Chf1.0065 (Dec 1 high)
Resistance 2: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9975 (Jul 24 high)
Current price: Chf0.9945
Support 1: Chf0.9910 (low of U.S. session)
Support 2: Chf0.9885 (Jul 23 low and Jul 20 high)
Support 3: Chf0.9835 (MA (200) H1)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5615 (Jul 23 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5585 (MA (200) H1, MA (50) D1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5550 (Jul 24 high)
Current Price: $ 1.5508
Support 1: $ 1.5485 (Jul 23-24 lows)
Support 2: $ 1.5390/10 (area of Jul 12-13 lows)
Support 3: $ 1.5320 (Jun 5 low )
Resistance 3: $ 1.2205 (MA (200) H1)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2145 (Jul 23 high and Jul 20 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2115 (Jul 24 high)
Current Price: $ 1.2075
Support 1: $ 1.2040 (Jul 24 low)
Support 2: $ 1.2000 (psychological level)
Support 3: $ 1.1925 (Jun 9 low)
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2061 -0,45%
GBP/USD $1,5504 +0,02%
USD/CHF Chf ,9955 +0,44%
USD/JPY Y78,16 -0,20%
EUR/JPY Y94,27 -0,66%
GBP/JPY Y121,17 -0,19%
AUD/USD $1,0223 -0,32%
NZD/USD $0,7843 -0,43%
USD/CAD C$1,0216 +0,26%
01:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter II +0.1% +0.6% +0.5%
01:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter II +1.6% +1.3% +1.2%
08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate July 105.3 104.8
08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment July 113.9 113.0
08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations July 97.3 96.8
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter II -0.3% -0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (preliminary) Quarter II -0.2% -0.3%
10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance July -11 -10
13:00 Belgium Business Climate July -13.2 -13.4
14:00 U.S. New Home Sales June 369 373
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -0.8
21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - 2.50% 2.50%
21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
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