Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 27-07-2012.

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27.07.2012
18:40
American focus: euro fell sharply after rising during the day

The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said that they will do everything necessary to protect the single currency. The single currency showed its first weekly gain against the dollar since June.

The dollar rose against the yen to its highest level for the week after, as U.S. growth slowed in the second quarter, less than economists forecast. U.S. gross domestic product grew by 1.5 percent per year, after a revised growth of 2% in the previous quarter. The average forecast was at + 1.4%. Japan's currency weakened against the U.S. dollar after the GDP data, which caused a decrease in the yield on two-year bonds at levels up to 0.25%. The yen fell against major currencies after government data showed a decrease in the consumer price index in Japan, which is evidence that people are struggling with deflation.

The Canadian dollar rose to a 10-week high against the U.S. dollar, as stock prices and oil prices rose on a background of demand for riskier assets.

Currency closer to parity with the dollar after a report showed the U.S. economy, which is the largest trading partner, Canada, has expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter.

13:55
U.S.: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, July 72.3 (forecast 72.0)
13:47
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.2245, $1.2300

USD/JPY Y78.15, Y78.30, Y78.50, Y78.70

GBP/USD $1.5720, $1.5725, $1.5750

EUR/GBP stg0.7850

AUD/USD $1.0395

AUD/JPY Y80.50

AUD/NZD NZ$1.3050

 

12:48
USD/JPY: The pair updated daily high Y78.44 after U.S. GDP data

 

The pair approached the level of resistance to Y78.48 (Jul 23 high, MA (200) H1). Currently the pair is trading at Y78.40


 

12:32
U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q, Quarter II +1.8% (forecast +1.9%)
12:31
U.S.: PCE price index, q/q, Quarter II +0.7% (forecast +1.4%)
12:31
U.S.: GDP, q/q, Quarter II +1.5% (forecast +1.5%)
12:22
European session: Euro fluctuated on the reports of the ECB buying bonds

 

Data:

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator July 1.16 1.24 1.43

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) July -0.1% +0.4% +0.4%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) July +1.7% +1.7% +1.7%


The euro rose against the dollar after German Finance Minister welcomed the ECB's intention to do everything necessary to support the euro area. Recall that the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Thursday vowed to do everything possible to prevent the collapse of the euro area.

Market volatility and fluctuations in the euro were due to contradictory reports of purchases of government bonds of countries of concern on the part of the ECB. Thus, the publication of Le Monde reported that the European Central Bank is ready to buy Spanish and Italian bonds. At the same time, the Bundesbank said that Germany had not changed its opinion on the ECB's purchases of government bonds, as the ECB's unlimited purchases of government bonds would be contrary to the mandate and believes that public deficits should not be financed by printing money.

It also appeared on the market talk that the ECB and the fund EFSF prepare a joint plan to support Spain and Italy. The program will buy EFSF bonds in the primary markets of the two troubled countries until September, after which it will ESM. As for the ECB, the central bank will take part in the operations only if the authorities will use the funds saved. Other sources are indeed added that, according to the plan, the ECB will make purchases of bonds in the secondary market.

In the evening the attention of markets will focus on macro data from the U.S. - will be published data on GDP and consumer spending.


EUR / USD: pair rose to the level of $ 1.2333

GBP / USD: pair rose to $ 1.5745

USD / JPY: pair dropped to Y78.06


U.S. at 12:30 GMT will change in GDP, the GDP price index, core personal consumption expenditures index, an index of personal consumption expenditures for the 2nd quarter, at 13:55 GMT - the indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in July.

12:07
Germany: CPI, y/y , July +1.7% (forecast +1.7%)
12:07
Orders

EUR/USD
Offers    $1.2390/400, $1.2350, $1.2330
Bids   $1.2280-60,  $1.2260-30, $1.2205/00, $1.2175/70, $1.2115/10

EUR/JPY
Offers    Y97.30/35, Y97.00  
Bids  Y95.50, Y95.00, Y94.50

AUD/USD
Offers    $1.0500, $1.0450
Bids   $1.0400, $1.0385/80, $1.0350, $1.0300

EUR/GBP
Offers    stg0.7895/900, stg0.7880/85,
Bids   stg0.7780/75, stg0.7755/50, stg0.7735/30, stg0.7700/690

USD/JPY
Offers    Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.65/70, Y78.45/50
Bids   Y77.90, Y77.50

GBP/USD

Offers   $1.5800/10, $1.5780, $1.5750

Bids   $1.5685/80, $1.5655/50, $1.5620, $1.5560/50

12:01
Germany: CPI, m/m, July +0.4% (forecast +0.4%)
11:44
GERMANY SCHAEUBLE: National reform efforts must have priority

-- Portuguese, Irish reform programs progressing well

-- EMU institutional framework must be strengthened

09:45
ITALY T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS:

Sold E8.5bln 6-month BOT, average yield 2.454% (2.957%), cover 1.61 (1.61)

09:21
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD $1.2245, $1.2300

USD/JPY Y78.15, Y78.30, Y78.50, Y78.70

GBP/USD $1.5720, $1.5725, $1.5750

EUR/GBP stg0.7850

AUD/USD $1.0395

AUD/JPY Y80.50

AUD/NZD NZ$1.3050

 

08:45
Asian session: The dollar traded 0.3 percent from a two-week low against the euro

 

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y June +0.2% 0.0% -0.2%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y June -0.1% 0.0% -0.2%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y July -0.6% -0.6% -0.8%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y July -0.6% -0.6% -0.6%

23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y June +3.6% +1.2% +0.2%


The dollar traded 0.3 percent from a two-week low against the euro before data today forecast to show the U.S. economy expanded at the slowest pace in a year. U.S. gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services the nation produced, probably expanded at a 1.4 percent annual rate after a 1.9 percent gain in the previous quarter, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of today’s data.

The greenback headed for a weekly loss versus most of its major peers amid speculation the Federal Reserve will engage in a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that policy makers are “looking for ways to address the weakness in the economy should more action be needed to promote a sustained recovery in the labor market.” The Fed will hold a two-day policy meeting starting July 31.

The euro maintained a two-day advance against the dollar and yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers will do whatever is needed to preserve the 17-nation currency.  Yesterday’s pledge by ECB President Draghi prompted speculation policy makers may be preparing to unveil new measures to fight the region’s debt crisis as potential bailouts for economies the size of Spain and Italy threaten to overwhelm Europe’s rescue funds. Draghi delivered his remarks at the Global Investment Conference in London, saying surging sovereign-bond yields may fall within the ECB’s jurisdiction. Spanish 10-year rates have exceeded the 7 percent level that prompted bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

The yen was lower against most of its major counterparts after government data showed Japan’s consumer price index declined, evidence that the nation is struggling to defeat deflation.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.2 percent in June from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for no change. Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa has said the central bank will pursue “powerful monetary easing” until its 1 percent inflation goal set in February is in sight.

Australia’s dollar rose as Asian shares headed for their biggest gain this month, supporting demand for riskier assets.


EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to yesterday's highs.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $1.5700.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range of Y78.15-Y78.35.


European data for Friday includes the German flash HICP data for July, which is expected to come in at 0.4% m/m, 1.9% y/y. The France

consumer confidence survey for July is due at 0645GMT with Italy releasing the ISTAT business survey at 0800GMT. US: data starts at 1200GMT with the Building Permits Revision for June, followed at 1230GMT by second quarter GDP, which is expected to rise 1.4%, compared with the 1.9% rise in the previous quarter.  At 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to be unrevised at 72.0 in July. US Housing Vacancies are due at 1400GMT, while late data sees the 2015GMT release of C&I Loans. MT with Italy releasing the ISTAT business survey at 0800GMT.

08:23
Forex: Thursday’s review

The euro rose against the dollar by more than two figures, while showing the greatest increase since the beginning of the month after the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he was willing to do everything necessary to keep the EU.

The dollar rose slightly against other major currencies, as the published data showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to a four-year low, while reducing concerns about the weakening of economic growth. At the same time, orders for durable goods fell more than analysts had forecast.

The dollar traded in a narrow range against the yen at levels eight-week lows. fluctuated between gains and losses against the yen, trading at about eight weeks low.

The Canadian dollar reached a two-month high against its U.S. counterpart, as risk appetite increased. He rose to $ 1.0063, which is a maximum of 16 May.

New Zealand dollar rose 1.4% to $ 0.8020, reached in this case is almost the highest level of cents per week. The head of the Reserve Bank Alan Bollard has left interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, stating that the economy should grow moderately.

The pound rose 1.5%, showing the biggest intraday gain since December 31, 2010. This was due to information that European politicians will make all efforts to contain the debt crisis, which ultimately lead to improved prospects for the UK economy.

07:27
Tech for USD / JPY

 

Resistance 3: Y79.20 (Jul 17 high, MA (50) D1)

Resistance 2: Y78.80 (Jul 20 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.50 (Jul 23 high, MA (200) H1)

Current price: Y78.23

Support 1: Y77.95 (Jul 23 low)

Support 2: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)


07:00
Switzerland: KOF Leading Indicator, July 1.43 (forecast 1.24)
06:42
Tech for USD / CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9865 (Jul 25 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9840 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9785 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9773

Support 1: Chf0.9740/45 (area of ​​Jul 19-26 lows)

Support 2: Chf0.9685 (Jul 6 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9650 (MA (50) D1)


06:24
Tech for GBP / USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5840/50 (area of May 21 and 22 highs)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high, MA (200) D1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5725/40 (area Jul 19-26 highs, MA (200) D1)

Current Price: $ 1.5680

Support 1: $ 1.5665 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.5600 (MA (200) H1, MA (50) D1, psychological level)

Support 3: $ 1.5550 (Jun 25 high)


05:40
Tech for EUR / USD

 

 

Resistance 3: $ 1.2440 (MA (50) D1)

 

Resistance 2: $ 1.2400 (Jul 6 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2130/35 (area of Jul 10 and 26 highs)

Current Price: $ 1.2289

Support 1: $ 1.2270 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.2000 (psychological level, MA (200) H1)

Support 3: $ 1.2170 (Jul 25 high)


 

05:20
Currencies. Daily history for Jul 26'2012:

 

 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

 

EUR/USD $1,2288 +1,15%1,2147

GBP/USD $1,5684 +1,22%

USD/CHF Chf0,9779 -1,07%

USD/JPY Y78,21 +0,09%

EUR/JPY Y96,02 +1,15%

GBP/JPY Y122,66 +1,31%

AUD/USD $1,0395 + 0,83%

NZD/USD $0,8007 +1,25%

USD/CAD C$1,0100 -0,53%

 

05:00
Schedule for today, Friday, Jul 27’2012:

 

 

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index July -0.6% +0.8%

 

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y July -1.5%

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator July 1.16 1.24

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m  July -0.1% +0.4%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y July +1.7% +1.7%

12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q  Quarter II +1.9% +1.5%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter II +2.5% +1.4%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter II +2.3% +1.9%

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index  July 73.2 72.0

 

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