Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 26-04-2018.

• Says didn't discuss monetary policy per se

In the week ending April 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 232,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 229,250, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 231,250 to 231,500.

• Inflation likely to hover around 1.5 pct for rest of the year

• Underlying inflation to rise only gradually

• Risks to growth relate to global factors

• Has confidence that inflation will converge with target

• Need to monitor fx

• Ample degree of monetary stimulus still needed

• Underlying trends continue to support confidence

• Moderation of growth

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.4 billion or 2.6 percent to $254.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 3.5 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.8 percent. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, drove the increase, $6.4 billion or 7.6 percent to $91.4 billion.

"At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases".

The survey of 100 firms showed that, in the year to April, retail sales volumes were broadly unchanged. Sales were below average for the time of year for the second month in a row, albeit at to a lesser extent than in the year to March. Meanwhile, orders placed on suppliers fell slightly, but are expected to pick up again in the year to May.

Within the retail sector, falls in sales volumes in the clothing, footwear & leather, non-store, and furniture & carpets sub-sectors were offset by sales growth among grocers, hardware & DIY, and recreational goods stores.

Card spending was 1.2 per cent lower than in March 2017 with repayments outstripping new lending in the first quarter of 2018. Outstanding levels of credit card borrowing have grown by 5.8 per cent over the year.

Gross mortgage lending in March is estimated to have been £20.5bn, 2.3 per cent lower than a year earlier. The number of total mortgage approvals has also fallen and is 15 per cent lower, with house purchase approvals falling by almost 21 per cent, compared to a year earlier.

Growth in personal deposits has grown by 1.8 per cent over the year, slightly down on the previous six-month average of 2 per cent.

• Says risks of too low inflation merit particular attention, as at prevailing interest rate levels this is more difficult to manage than inflation that is too high

• If inflation is to remain close to target going forward, continued support is needed from monetary policy

• Says monetary policy needs to proceed cautiously

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2298 (592)

$1.2274 (282)

$1.2244 (218)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2176

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2118 (2535)

$1.2080 (3081)

$1.2038 (1756)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 77918 contracts (according to data from April, 25) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2650 (4233);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4090 (906)

$1.4059 (657)

$1.4015 (414)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3942

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3888 (1178)

$1.3857 (1655)

$1.3821 (2220)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 4 is 22442 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3262);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 24485 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2220);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 25

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Much more encouraged by economy compared to previous testimony in november

• There is no near-term prospect of benchmark status of us dollar and us treasury market being undermined

• Affirmation of U.S.' rating reflects exceptional economic strength, very high strength of institutions, very low exposure to credit-related shocks

• It sees little prospect of U.S.' economic strength diminishing materially in the foreseeable future

• Would consider changing outlook & ultimately moving U.S.' rating if it concluded over coming years policymakers do not have capacity to respond decisively to mitigate adverse fiscal dynamics over medium term

The Import Price Index rose 2.1% in the March quarter 2018. This follows a rise in the December quarter 2017 of 2.0%.

The rise was driven by higher prices paid for Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+8.7%), Road vehicles (+1.5%), Inorganic chemicals (+19.7%) and Plastics in primary forms (+14.7%).

Through the year to the March quarter 2018, the Import Price Index rose 2.3%, driven by Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+15.9%).

The Export Price Index rose 4.9% in the March quarter 2018. This follows a rise in the December quarter 2017 of 2.8%.

The rise was driven by higher prices received for Metalliferous ores and metal scrap (+6.1%), Coal, coke and briquettes (+6.5%), Gas, natural and manufactured (+13.8%), Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+9.6%), Non-ferrous metals (+4.8%) and Live animals (+22.2%).

Through the year to the March quarter 2018, the Export Price Index fell 1.4%, driven by Metalliferous ores and metal scrap (-10.9%).

The increasingly insecure state of geopolitics now also seems to be influencing the mood of consumers. There is a tangible drop in economic expectations in April, while income expectations fell only slightly by comparison. In contrast, propensity to buy is still at a very high level. GfK forecasts a decrease in consumer climate for May of 0.1 points in comparison to the previous month to 10.8 points. The West's confrontation with Russia in the Syria conflict is escalating and is clearly causing increasing anxiety among consumers in terms of Germany's future economic prospects. Economic expectations suffered a considerable setback in April. In the wake of this, income expectations also fell, but to a much smaller extent. In contrast, propensity to buy maintained its already very high level.