Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 23-04-2018.

Existing-home sales grew for the second consecutive month in March, but lagging inventory levels and affordability constraints kept sales activity below year ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Total existing-home sales which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million in March from 5.54 million in February. Despite last month's increase, sales are still 1.2 percent below a year ago.

April survey data signalled a further strong increase in private sector output across the U.S, alongside steep growth in new orders and intensifying price pressures. At 54.8 in April, up from 54.2 in March, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index indicated a faster upturn in business activity across the private sector, driven by accelerated growth at both manufacturing and service sector firms. While the former recorded the steeper rate of expansion, both sectors enjoyed solid rates of growth.

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Wholesale sales declined 0.8% to $62.8 billion in February, the largest downward movement and the second monthly drop since September 2017. Lower sales were recorded in four of seven subsectors, representing 64% of total wholesale sales. The miscellaneous and the motor vehicle and parts subsectors contributed the most to the decline.

In volume terms, wholesale sales decreased 0.9% from January to February.

The miscellaneous subsector reported the largest decline in dollar terms in February, declining 3.7% to $7.7 billion. This was the second decrease in three months, bringing the subsector to its lowest level since December 2016. The agricultural supplies industry recorded the only decline within the miscellaneous subsector, down 16.8% to $1.8 billion. The decrease in February saw the industry fall to its lowest level since November 2014.

Eurozone business activity continued to rise at a solid pace in April, though the rate of expansion remained considerably weaker than seen earlier in the year amid signs of weaker growth of demand and supply constraints. Slower inflows of new orders, alongside weakened optimism about the business outlook, suggests that growth could slow further in May. Price pressures meanwhile eased during the month from recent elevated levels.

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI held steady at 55.2 in April, according to flash survey data based on approximately 80% of final responses. The unchanged reading indicated the joint-weakest expansion of business output since the start of 2017, but remained well above the average of 53.8 seen over the past five years.

Germany's private sector economy grew solidly at the start of the second quarter. The pace of expansion stabilised after having slipped to eightmonth low in March, according to the latest PMI survey data from IHS Markit. The rate of job creation picked up to its highest for three months; however, there was less optimism among businesses towards the outlook for activity in the year ahead amid a further slowdown in new order growth.

The IHS Markit Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI meanwhile registered a reading of 58.1 in April. Although little-changed from March's 58.2 and pointing to another strong monthly improvement in overall manufacturing sector performance, this was the lowest reading since July 2017.

At 56.9, up from 56.3 in March, the IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index continued to signal an above-trend rate of expansion. The acceleration in overall growth was indicative of sharper rates of expansion in both the manufacturing and services sectors. The rate of increase in the latter continued to outstrip the former, but both remained marked and above their respective long-run averages nonetheless.

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• Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI rises in April to 53.3, from 53.1 in March.

• Output, new orders and employment increase at quickened rates.

• Output price inflation remains marked relative to historical data.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "Survey data depicted a positive backdrop in the Japanese manufacturing sector during April. The improvement in the headline PMI was underpinned by stronger rates of growth in output, new orders and employment. Furthermore, business confidence strengthened, while output prices were hiked to a stronger degree, signalling optimism in demand conditions. "Although new export orders declined for the first time since August 2016, as the stronger yen begins to impact price competitiveness, the rise in total new business inflows signals stronger domestic demand."

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2405 (2498)

$1.2363 (199)

$1.2339 (216)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2270

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2252 (3987)

$1.2220 (4183)

$1.2181 (3738)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 77783 contracts (according to data from April, 20) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2650 (4256);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4197 (1520)

$1.4139 (928)

$1.4100 (883)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4014

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3938 (1668)

$1.3905 (1176)

$1.3868 (2167)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 4 is 22605 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3367);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 25095 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2357);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.