Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 19-04-2018.

Results from the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region's manufacturing sector. Although the survey's indexes for general activity and employment improved slightly, the indexes for new orders and shipments moderated. The firms also reported higher prices for both inputs and their own manufactured goods this month. The survey's future indexes, measuring expectations for the next six months, reflected continued optimism.

The diffusion index for current general activity edged 1 point higher, from 22.3 in March to 23.2 this month. Nearly 37 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 14 percent reported decreases. The indexes for current new orders and shipments remained positive but fell 17 points and 9 points, respectively.

In the week ending April 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 232,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,250, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 230,000.

In the three months to March 2018 (Quarter 1), the quantity bought in retail sales fell by 0.5% when compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017, with declines in all sectors except for department stores and non-store retailing.

The month-on-month growth rate fell by 1.2% due to a large fall of 7.4% from petrol sales; a likely consequence of adverse weather conditions, which impacted travel.

Department stores were the only sector to show positive growth in March at 0.8%, with feedback from retailers suggesting that online offers for Mothering Sunday and Easter boosted internet sales more than usual during the adverse weather.

The quantity bought in supermarket stores declined in March, while specialist food stores saw strong growth; possibly due to the easier access to these stores during snow.

This reflected surpluses for goods (€27.9 billion), services (€8.9 billion) and primary income (€6.3 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€8.0 billion).

The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in February 2018 recorded a surplus of €408.1 billion (3.7% of euro area GDP), compared with €372.6 billion (3.4% of euro area GDP) in the 12 months to February 2017. This development was due to an increase in the surplus for services (from €39.1 billion to €101.9 billion), which was partially offset by decreases in the surpluses for primary income (from €115.8 billion to €94.7 billion) and goods (from €358.7 billion to €355.5 billion), as well as an increase in the deficit for secondary income (from €141.0 billion to €143.9 billion).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2465 (2109)

$1.2452 (1395)

$1.2434 (216)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2375

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2316 (3610)

$1.2279 (3725)

$1.2237 (4438)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 77353 contracts (according to data from April, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2250 (4438);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4361 (2141)

$1.4310 (2085)

$1.4276 (2028)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4196

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4129 (947)

$1.4098 (845)

$1.4063 (1202)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 4 is 21798 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3309);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 24260 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2494);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The consumers price index (CPI) rose 0.5 percent in the March 2018 quarter, Stats NZ said today. The annual inflation rate was 1.1 percent, down from 1.6 percent in the year ended December 2017.

Government-influenced price changes affected the annual figure, with higher cigarette and tobacco prices being countered by cheaper tertiary education.

The annual tobacco tax increase on 1 January 2018 lifted quarterly inflation, with prices up 10 percent.

"The average price for packet of 25 cigarettes was $35.14 in March, compared with $31.68 last December," prices senior manager Paul Pascoe said.

Higher prices for accommodation services and petrol also contributed to the quarterly CPI rise, but they were slightly offset by seasonal falls for international airfares.

The trend participation rate increased to a record high of 65.7 per cent in March 2018, according to latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

"The labour force participation rate now sits at 65.7 per cent, the highest it has been since the series began in 1978, indicating that the population is participating in the labour market at a record high level," the Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman, said.

In line with the increasing participation rate, employment increased by around 14,000 persons. Part-time employment increased by 13,000 persons and full-time employment by 1,000 persons, reflecting a slowing in full-time employment growth.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by 3.1 per cent, which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (1.9 per cent).

The trend unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.6 per cent in March 2018.

"The unemployment rate has continued to be relatively constrained over the past year, and is still hovering around 5.5 to 5.7 per cent", Mr Hockman said.

• Negotiating one on one deal on trade with Japan

• China fx policies will support further opening of China economy

• U.S. miscalculating if it is determined to contain China's rise

• China well-prepared to deal with possible negative effects, resolve frictions with U.S.