Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 27-09-2017.

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey October 10.9 11

06:35 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

08:00 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

08:15 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

09:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

09:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index September 111.9 112

09:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Finally) September -1.5 -1.2

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence September 5.1 5.1

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator September 1.09 1.11

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) September 0.1% 0.1%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) September 1.8% 1.8%

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1980 1.99

12:30 U.S. Goods Trade Balance, $ bln. August -65.1 -65.00

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 1.8% 0.9%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 259 270

12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 1.2% 3%

13:45 U.S. FOMC Member Esther George Speaks

14:00 U.S. FED Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Speaks

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m August -0.7%

23:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence September -10 -11

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate August 2.8% 2.8%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y September 0.5% 0.6%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y September 0.4% 0.5%

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y August -0.2% 1%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y August 0.5% 0.7%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y August 0.4% 0.7%

23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y August 1.8% 2.6%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) August -0.8% 1.9%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) August 4.7%

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 471.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased 1.1 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.8 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.1 million barrels last week.

Pending home sales sank in August for the fifth time in six months, and slower activity in the areas hit hard by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will likely pull existing sales for the year below the pace set in 2016, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Pending Home Sales Index retreated 2.6 percent to 106.3 in August from 109.1 in July. The index is now at its lowest reading since January 2016 (106.1), is 2.6 percent below a year ago, and has fallen on an annual basis in four of the past five months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says this summer's terribly low supply levels have officially drained all of the housing market's momentum over the past year. "August was another month of declining contract activity because of the one-two punch of limited listings and home prices rising far above incomes," he said. "Demand continues to overwhelm supply in most of the country, and as a result, many would-be buyers from earlier in the year are still in the market for a home, while others have perhaps decided to temporarily postpone their search."

EURUSD: 1.1650 (EUR 500m) 1.1800-05 (1.06bln) 1.1850 (480m) 1.1900-05 (740m)

USDJPY: 110.50 (USD 620m) 110.75 (560m) 111.30 (960m)

EURGBP: 0.8950 (EUR 400m)

AUDUSD: 0.7900 (AUSD 300m) 0.7970-75 (500m) 0.8150 (310m)

NZDUSD: 0.7275 (NZD 355m)

AUDNZD: 1.0830 (AUD 1.08bln)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $3.9 billion or 1.7 percent to $232.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 6.8 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.2 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, led the increase, $3.6 billion or 4.9 percent to $77.4 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, up three of the last four months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $237.2 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent July increase. Machinery, up nine of the last ten months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $31.4 billion.

• Russia did not violate intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty, does not intend to leave agreement

• Russia urges U.S. to resume complying with intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty

The survey of 117 respondents, including 55 retail firms, found that sales for the time of year were considered to be slightly above seasonal norms.

Meanwhile, orders placed with suppliers also rose in the year to September, also rebounding from a fall in the previous month. Retailers expect continued growth in both sales and orders in the year to October, albeit at a slower pace.

Growth in internet sales volumes rose in the year to September, to slightly above the long-run average, and are expected to expand at a somewhat slower pace in October.

Within the retail sector, the main drivers of growth in overall volumes were the grocery and clothing sectors. Retailers of furniture & carpets, specialist food & drink stores and sellers of recreational goods reported falling sales volumes over the year to September.

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 5.0% in August 2017, from 4.5% in July, averaging 4.8% in the three months up to August. The components of M3 showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate, including currency in circulation and overnight deposits (M1), increased to 9.5% in August, from 9.1% in July. The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) was less negative at -2.7% in August, from -3.2% in July. The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) was less negative at -1.4% in August, from -2.4% in July. Within M3, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by households stood at 4.5% in August, unchanged from the previous month, while the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-financial corporations

increased to 8.1% in August, from 6.8% in July. Finally, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-monetary financial corporations (excluding insurance corporations and pension funds) increased to 6.4% in August, from 5.3% in July.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1918 (1175)

$1.1880 (1587)

$1.1854 (620)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1766

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1723 (3236)

$1.1684 (3708)

$1.1641 (3450)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 98063 contracts (according to data from September, 26) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (5371);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3570 (972)

$1.3527 (1508)

$1.3495 (1447)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3372

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3284 (1016)

$1.3240 (731)

$1.3193 (1144)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 35245 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (3010);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 36093 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2513);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.02 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 26

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• To get to a neutral stance would require a bit more tightening but not an excessive amount

• Path of rate hikes is subject to a great deal of uncertainty, not set in stone

• Path of rate increases won't necessarily be predictable

• Shrinking balance sheet will put some upward pressure on term premiums

• Term premiums are narrow in part because of spillovers from international monetary policy

The original July value was revised up to 1.46 points. The consumption indicator was altered after the Federal Statistical Office revised consumption figures for previous years in late August.

New car registrations in August boosted the UBS consumption indicator. August saw nearly 6% more new car registrations than the same month last year. The upward trend in overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents also helped. Overnight stays in July increased nearly 3% compared to July 2016. Overnight stays from January to July increased by almost 4% compared with the same period last year. Weak employment growth is still affecting the consumption indicator. In the second quarter, employment increased only 0.2%, well below the 1% average since 2000.

• Says supply deal will last two years