Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 28-02-2018.

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2193 -0,32%

GBP/USD $1,3759 -1,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,94447 +0,59%

USD/JPY Y106,68 -0,60%

EUR/JPY Y130,08 -0,93%

GBP/JPY Y146,784 -1,69%

AUD/USD $0,7761 -0,36%

NZD/USD $0,7208 -0,35%

USD/CAD C$1,2832 +0,45%

00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter IV 1.0% 0.9%

00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 54.8 54

01:45 China Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI February 51.5 51.3

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence February 44.7 44.9

06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter IV 1.2% 1.8%

06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter IV 0.6% 0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y February 3.2% 2.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index February 0.6% 0.2%

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) January -0.7%

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y January 0.6% 1.1%

08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI February 65.3 64.0

08:50 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 58.4 56.1

08:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 61.1 60.3

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 59.6 58.5

09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln January 5.2 5.4

09:30 United Kingdom Consumer credit, mln January 1.52 1.4

09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals January 61.04 62

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing February 55.3 55.0

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate January 8.7% 8.6%

13:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter IV -19.4 -17.9

13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims February 1875 1930

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims February 222 226

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y January 1.5% 1.5%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m January 0.2% 0.3%

13:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m January 0.4% 0.3%

13:30 U.S. Personal spending January 0.4% 0.2%

14:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) February 55.5 55.9

15:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m January 0.7% 0.2%

15:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing February 59.1 58.6

15:00 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testifies

16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

20:00 U.S. Total Vehicle Sales, mln February 17.16 17.25

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m January -9.6%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y February 1.3% 1.5%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y February 0.7% 0.8%

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y January -0.1%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate January 2.8% 2.7%

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels last week.

After seeing a modest three-month rise in activity, pending home sales cooled considerably in January to their lowest level in over three years, according to the National Association of Realtors. All major regions experienced monthly and annual declines in contract signings last month.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 4.7 percent to 104.6 in January from a downwardly revised 109.8 in December 2017. After last month's retreat, the index is now 3.8 percent below a year ago and at its lowest level since October 2014 (104.1).

Prices for products sold by Canadian manufacturers, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), rose 0.3% in January, mainly due to higher prices for energy and petroleum products. Prices for raw materials purchased by Canadian manufacturers, as measured by the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI), increased 3.3%, primarily as a result of higher prices for crude energy products.

The IPPI rose 0.3% in January, after edging down 0.1% the previous month. Of the 21 major commodity groups, 7 were up, 10 were down and 4 were unchanged.

Prices for energy and petroleum products (+3.4%) were largely responsible for the increase in the IPPI in January. The increase in this product group was mainly due to higher prices for motor gasoline (+3.8%), diesel fuel (+4.6%) and light fuel oils (+3.8%). The IPPI excluding energy and petroleum products edged down 0.1%.

Primary non-ferrous metal products (+1.0%) and meat, fish and dairy products (+0.9%) also contributed to the increase in the IPPI in January, but to a lesser extent.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. With this second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth

remains the same.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the third quarter. The PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index

increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in 2017, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent in 2016. The PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared

with an increase of 1.8 percent.

• EU draft brexit treaty creates "common regulatory area without internal borders" covering Ireland and Northern Ireland

• EU governments will be able to make input to the withdrawal treaty draft

• We have to guarantee that our joint commitment of EU and Britain on Ireland will be upheld in all circumstance

• Treaty allows for different arrangements later to avoid hard border on Ireland

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.2% in February 2018, down from 1.3% in January 2018, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in February (2.1%, compared with 2.2% in January), followed by services (1.3%, compared with 1.2% in January), food, alcohol & tobacco (1.1%, compared with 1.9% in January) and non-energy industrial goods (0.7%, compared with 0.6% in January).

On daily time frame chart we can see that the price has broken recently the upside trend line and it tests below the simple moving average (SMA:50).

Therefore, if the price stays below the trend line then we can expect a new bearish movement until the previous lows.

In Q4 2017, GDP in volume terms rose again: +0.6% after +0.5%. On average over the year, GDP accelerated markedly in 2017: +2.0% after +1.1% in 2016.

Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slightly accelerated (+1.2% after +0.9%) while household consumption expenditures slowed down (+0.2% after +0.6%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed by +0.5 points to GDP growth in Q4 2017 (after +0.6 points).

Foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points after −0.4 points): exports accelerated sharply (+2.4% after +1.0%) while imports significantly slowed down (+0.3% after +2.2%). Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively (−0.4 points after +0.3 points).

Over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should hardly slow down in February 2018: +1.2% after +1.3% in the previous month, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of February 2018. This slowdown in the year-on-year inflation should result from a lesser rise in prices of services, food and tobacco. The "manufactured product" prices should slightly rise and those of energy should increase at the same pace as in the previous month.

Over one month, consumer prices should be unchanged after a downturn of 0.1% in January. Food prices should edge down, in the wake of fresh product prices. Those of "manufactured product" should decrease again, but less markedly than in January. Services prices should slow down. Lastly, energy prices should be stable, the decrease in petroleum product prices being offset by a rise in gas and electricity prices.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2332 (3403)

$1.2295 (1071)

$1.2264 (430)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2215

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2171 (3094)

$1.2142 (4752)

$1.2108 (3203)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 132089 contracts (according to data from February, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (6695);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3994 (3789)

$1.3975 (1857)

$1.3949 (1159)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3889

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3832 (2338)

$1.3801 (2193)

$1.3766 (1807)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 9 is 52729 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3789);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 48690 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (2338);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Industrial production in Japan contracted a seasonally adjusted 6.6 percent on month in January, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Wednesday's preliminary reading, cited by rttnews.

That missed forecasts for a decline of 4.0 percent following the 2.9 percent gain in December.

On a yearly basis, industrial production added 2.7 percent - again missing forecasts for 5.3 percent and down from 4.4 percent in the previous month.

Upon the release of the data, the METI maintained its assessment of industrial production saying that it is picking up slowly.

• Kuroda: once BoJ starts normalising policy it will be a gradual process

• Won't continue aggressive monetary easing once price target has been achieved and economy growing stably

• Financing public debt is not part of BoJ's mandate

The continuous drop in the PMI indicates a growth moderation in the manufacturing sector in China. 11 of the 13 sub-indices were lower than their respective levels in the previous month.

The output and the new orders indices fell by 0.5 pts and 0.8 pts respectively in January, showing that output growth moderated amid a deceleration in the growth of overall new orders in the month. 1 Besides, for the first time in 15 months, the new export orders index fell below the critical 50-mark in January, showing a contraction in new export orders. Also noteworthy is that the input prices index went down by 2.5 pts from the previous month to 59.7 in January, showing that the prices of production inputs have increased at a slower pace recently.

After an illustrious start to the year in the previous month, the consumer climate in Germany is facing initial headwinds. Both economic and income expecta-tions, as well as propensity to buy suffer losses. GfK forecasts a decrease in consumer climate for March this year of 0.2 points in comparison to the previous month to 10.8 points.

The political turbulence surrounding the formation of a stable, viable government in Berlin may have unsettled consumers, resulting in the atmosphere in February losing the gains it made in the previ-ous month. This places economic and income expectations, as well as propensity to buy, in the same position they were in at the end of 2017. Despite this setback, consumer optimism among German citizens remains high.