Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 31-01-2018.

00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter IV -3.0% -8%

00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter IV -1.6% -0.8%

00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m December 11.7% -1.7%

00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Finally) January 54.0 54.4

01:45 China Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI January 51.5 51.3

06:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter I -2

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index January 0.6% 0.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y January 2.6% 2.5%

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) December 1.3%

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y December -0.2%

08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI January 65.2 64.0

08:50 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) January 58.8 58.1

08:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) January 63.3 61.2

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) January 60.6 59.6

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing January 56.3 56.5

11:15 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims January 1937 1916

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 233 238

13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter IV -0.2% 0.8%

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q(Preliminary) Quarter IV 3.0% 1%

14:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) January 55.1 55.5

15:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m December 0.8% 0.4%

15:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing January 59.7 58.8

20:00 U.S. Total Vehicle Sales, mln January 17.85 17.2

21:45 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals December 8.00%

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m December 10.8%

At 418.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week, and are near the top of the average range. Both blending components and finished gasoline inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week, but are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels last week.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, moved higher 0.5 percent to 110.1 in December from an upwardly revised 109.6 in November. With last month's modest increase, the index is now 0.5 percent above a year ago.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says pending sales edged up in December and reached their highest level since last March (111.3). "Another month of modest increases in contract activity is evidence that the housing market has a small trace of momentum at the start of 2018," he said. "Jobs are plentiful, wages are finally climbing and the prospect of higher mortgage rates are perhaps encouraging more aspiring buyers to begin their search now."

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.4% in November, with widespread growth across industries as 17 of 20 industrial sectors increased.

Goods-producing industries rose 0.8% after declining 0.5% in October. November's gain was mainly due to increases in the manufacturing and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sectors, partly as a result of restoration in production capacity. Meanwhile, services-producing industries rose 0.3%, led by the real estate and rental and leasing, wholesale, and retail trade sectors.

The manufacturing sector was up 1.8% in November, the largest monthly increase since February 2014 as the majority of subsectors grew. Non-durable manufacturing rose 1.1%, while durable manufacturing jumped 2.5%.

Private sector employment increased by 234,000 jobs from December to January according to the January ADP National Employment Report.

"We've kicked off the year with another month of unyielding job gains," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Service providers were firing on all cylinders, posting their strongest gain in more than a year. We also saw robust hiring from midsize and large companies, while job growth in smaller firms slowed slightly."

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.7% in December 2017, stable compared to November 2017 and down from 9.7% in December 2016. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since January 2009.

The EU28 unemployment rate was 7.3% in December 2017, stable compared to November 2017 and down from 8.2% in December 2016. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since October 2008.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.3% in January 2018, down from 1.4% in December 2017, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in January (2.1%, compared with 2.9% in December), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (1.9%, compared with 2.1% in December), services (1.2%, stable compared with December) and non-energy industrial goods (0.6%, compared with 0.5% in December).

In December 2017, 23.067 million persons were employed, -0.3% over November 2017. Unemployed were 2.791 million, -1.7% over the previous month.

Employment rate was 58.0%, -0.2 percentage points over the previous month, unemployment rate was 10.8% -0.1 percentage points over November 2017 and inactivity rate was 34.8%, +0.3 percentage points in a month.

Youth unemployment rate (aged 15-24) was 32.2%, -0.2 percentage points over the previous month and youth unemployment ratio in the same age group was 8.2%, -0.2 percentage points over November 2017.

Over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should rise by 1.4% in January 2018 after +1.2% in the previous month, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of January 2018. This increase in the year-on-year inflation should come from an acceleration in services prices and in energy prices and a slight rebound in "manufactured product" prices whereas food and tobacco should slow down.

Over one month, consumer prices should edge down by 0.1% after +0.3% in December. Energy prices should sharply accelerate because of the increase in Brent crude and in taxation. Food prices should rise slightly. On the other hand, "manufactured product" prices should fell back significantly, due to the beginning of winter sales. Tobacco prices shoud edge down. Lastly, services prices should slow down.

Year on year, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices should increase faster than in the previous month (+1.5% after +1.2% in December). Over one month, it should edge down: −0.1% after +0.4%.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2553 (2636)

$1.2525 (1086)

$1.2501 (2264)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2451

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2366 (784)

$1.2340 (671)

$1.2308 (1538)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 133118 contracts (according to data from January, 30) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1850 (7037);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4304 (1187)

$1.4279 (739)

$1.4240 (561)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4204

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4094 (149)

$1.4048 (94)

$1.3987 (143)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 44652 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3462);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 41923 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3038);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 30

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

According to provisional data turnover in retail trade in December 2017 was in real terms 1.9% and in nominal terms 0.2% smaller than in November 2016. The number of days open for sale was 24 in December 2017 and 26 in December 2016.

Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the whole year 2017 in real terms 2.3% and in nominal terms 4.2% larger than in 2016.

When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations (Census-X-12-ARIMA), the December 2017 turnover was in real terms 1.9% and in nominal terms 1.5% lower than in November 2017.

• Only need to look at "depraved character" of North Korean leadership to understand nature of nuclear threat to U.S. and its allies

• U.S. will not repeat "mistakes of past administrations that got us into this very dangerous position" with North Korea

• Careful consideration is needed for central banks to issue cryptocurrency given impacts on financial intermediation

• Don't see problem with financial intermediation now

• 2 pct inflation is very far so current yield curve is appropriate

• There is misunderstanding in market BoJ will exit easy policy soon

• No need to raise yield targets now, see no change for some time

• Important for BoJ to be ready to change yield targets if economy, price, financial conditions change

The manufacturing sector in China continued to expand in January, albeit at a slower pace, the National Bureau of Statistics, cited by rttnews, with a Manufacturing PMI score of 51.3.

That missed expectations for 51.5 and was down from 51.6 in December.

It also remained above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The bureau also noted that the non-manufacturing PMI came in with a score of 55.3 - beating forecasts for 54.9 and up from 55.0 in the previous month.

The all groups CPI

• Rose 0.6% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.6% in the september quarter 2017.

• Rose 1.9% over the twelve months to the december quarter 2017, compared with a rise of 1.8% over the twelve months to the september quarter 2017.

Overview of CPI movements

• The most significant price rises this quarter are automotive fuel (+10.4%), tobacco (+8.5%), domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+6.3%) and fruit (+9.3%).

• The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter are international holiday travel and accommodation (-1.7%), audio visual and computing equipment (-3.5%), and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.4%).