CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 04-03-2015

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 18,703.6 -111.56 -0.59 %

Hang Seng 24,465.38 -237.40 -0.96 %

Shanghai Composite 3,280.33 +17.28 +0.53 %

FTSE 100 6,919.24 +30.11 +0.44 %

CAC 40 4,917.35 +48.10 +0.99 %

Xetra DAX 11,390.38 +110.02 +0.98 %

S&P 500 2,098.53 -9.25 -0.44 %

NASDAQ Composite 4,967.14 -12.76 -0.26 %

Dow Jones 18,096.9 -106.47 -0.58 %

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1077 -0,88%

GBP/USD $1,5263 -0,63%

USD/CHF Chf0,9631 +0,21%

USD/JPY Y119,62 -0,08%

EUR/JPY Y132,56 -0,93%

GBP/JPY Y182,65 -0,67%

AUD/USD $0,7815 0,00%

NZD/USD $0,7586 +0,50%

USD/CAD C$1,2425 -0,56%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M January +0.2% +0.4%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y January +4.1%

00:30 Australia Trade Balance January -0.44 -0.93

01:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) January +4.2% -0.8%

07:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) January +3.4%

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375

12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05%

13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV +2.7% +3.1%

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims February 313 319

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV -2.2% +0.4%

15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index February 45.4 46.2

15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks

15:00 U.S. Factory Orders January -3.4% +0.1%

22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index February 45.9

Stock indices closed higher ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday. The ECB will unveil details of its quantitative easing programme.

Retail sales in the Eurozone rose 1.1% in January, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a 0.4% gain in December. December's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone surged 3.7% in January, after a 3.1% increase in December. December's figure was revised up from a 2.8% gain.

Eurozone' final services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 53.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 53.9. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 53.9.

Germany's final services PMI declined to 54.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 55.5. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 55.5.

France's final services PMI remained unchanged at 53.4 in February, in line with expectations.

Markit's and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.K. decreased to 56.7 in February from 57.2 in January, missing expectations for a rise to 57.6.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,919.24 +30.11 +0.44 %

DAX 11,390.38 +110.02 +0.98 %

CAC 40 4,917.35 +48.10 +0.99 %

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies after the mixed U.S. economic data. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index for the U.S. climbed to 56.9 in February from 56.7 in January, beating expectations for a decline to 56.5.

A reading above 50 indicates a growth in the service sector.

Private sector in the U.S. added 212,000 jobs in February, according the ADP report on Wednesday.

January's figure was revised up to 250,000 jobs from a previous reading of 213,000 jobs.

Analysts expected the private sector to add 219,000 jobs.

The euro dropped against the U.S. dollar. Retail sales in the Eurozone rose 1.1% in January, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a 0.4% gain in December. December's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone surged 3.7% in January, after a 3.1% increase in December. December's figure was revised up from a 2.8% gain.

Eurozone' final services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 53.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 53.9. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 53.9.

Germany's final services PMI declined to 54.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 55.5. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 55.5.

France's final services PMI remained unchanged at 53.4 in February, in line with expectations.

The British pound declined against the U.S. dollar. Markit's and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.K. decreased to 56.7 in February from 57.2 in January, missing expectations for a rise to 57.6.

The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. This decision was expected by analysts.

Canada's central bank said that the nation's economy "the current degree of monetary policy stimulus is still appropriate".

The BoC pointed out that "the risks around the inflation profile are now more balanced".

The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the kiwi traded mixed against the greenback in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie traded mixed against the greenback after the Australian gross domestic product (GDP). Australia's GDP climbed 0.5% in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations, after a 0.4% rise in the third quarter. The third quarter's figure was revised up from 0.3% increase.

On a yearly basis, Australia's GDP rose 2.5% in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations, after a 2.7% gain in the third quarter.

Chinese HSBC services purchasing managers' index (PMI) also supported the Aussie. The index rose to 52.0 in February from 51.8 in January.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the yen traded lower against the greenback in the absence of any major economic reports from Japan.

The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Wednesday that the Fed should delay its interest rate hike until inflation will rise to the Fed's target of 2%.

Evans is a voting member of the Fed policy committee.

He said that he expect that inflation will not rise to the Fed's target of 2% until 2018.

The Institute for Supply Management released its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index for the U.S. on Wednesday. The index climbed to 56.9 in February from 56.7 in January, beating expectations for a decline to 56.5.

A reading above 50 indicates a growth in the service sector.

The ISM's new orders index fell to 56.7 in February from 59.5 in January.

The ISM's business activity/production index decreased to 59.4 in February from 61.5 January.

The ISM's employment index climbed to 56.4 in February from 51.6 in January.

The ISM's price index rose 49.7 in February from 45.5 in January.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The BoC kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. This decision was expected by analysts.

Canada's central bank said that the nation's economy "the current degree of monetary policy stimulus is still appropriate".

The BoC pointed out that "the risks around the inflation profile are now more balanced".

The central bank expect a negative impact from lower oil prices to appear in the first half of 2015.

January's interest rate cut eased financial conditions in Canada.

The BoC lowered its interest rate to 0.75% on January 21, 2015, down from 1.0%. That was the first interest rate reduction since April 2009.

U.S. stock-index futures fell. Investors await jobs data and a policy meeting from the European Central Bank later this week.

Global markets:

Nikkei 18,703.6 -111.56 -0.59%

Hang Seng 24,465.38 -237.40 -0.96%

Shanghai Composite 3,280.33 +17.28 +0.53%

FTSE 6,881.72 -7.41 -0.11%

CAC 4,889.18 +19.93 +0.41%

DAX 11,298.57 +18.21 +0.16%

Crude oil $50.78 (+0.44%)

Gold $1205.20 (+0.07%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Private sector in the U.S. added 212,000 jobs in February, according the ADP report on Wednesday.

January's figure was revised up to 250,000 jobs from a previous reading of 213,000 jobs.

Analysts expected the private sector to add 219,000 jobs.

Official labour market data will be released on Friday. Analysts expect that U.S. unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.6% in February from 5.7% in January. The U.S. economy is expected to add 241,000 jobs in February.

Upgrades:

McDonald's (MCD) upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts, target raised from $93 to $115

Downgrades:

Alcoa (AA) downgraded from Buy to Neutral at BofA/Merrill

Other:

USDJPY 120.00 (USD 634m)

EURUSD 1.1200 (EUR 660m)

GBPUSD 1.5185 (GBP 375m)

AUDUSD 0.7750 (AUD 358m)

NZDUSD 0.7400 (NZD 375m)

EURJPY 136.50 (EUR 630m)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter IV +2.7% +2.5% +2.5%

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter IV +0.4% Revised From +0.3% +0.5% +0.5%

01:15 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI February 51.8 52.0

08:50 France Services PMI (Finally) February 53.4 53.4 53.4

08:55 Germany Services PMI (Finally) February 55.5 55.5 54.7

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) February 53.9 53.9 53.7

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services February 57.2 57.6 56.7

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) January +0.4% Revised From +0.3% +0.2% +1.1%

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) January +3.1% Revised From +2.8% +3.7%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. economic data. The U.S. economy is expected to add 219,000 jobs in February, according to the ADP employment report.

The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index is expected to decrease to 56.5 in February from 56.7 in January.

The euro dropped against the U.S. dollar after the mixed economic data from the Eurozone. Retail sales in the Eurozone rose 1.1% in January, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a 0.4% gain in December. December's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone surged 3.7% in January, after a 3.1% increase in December. December's figure was revised up from a 2.8% gain.

Eurozone' final services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 53.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 53.9. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 53.9.

Germany's final services PMI declined to 54.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 55.5. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 55.5.

France's final services PMI remained unchanged at 53.4 in February, in line with expectations.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected services data from the U.K. Markit's and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.K. decreased to 56.7 in February from 57.2 in January, missing expectations for a rise to 57.6.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar ahead of Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. Analysts expect the Bank of Canada to keep unchanged its interest rate at 0.75%.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.1115

GBP/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.5324

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report February 213 219

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.75% 0.75%

15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing February 56.7 56.5

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories February +8.4

19:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book

EUR/USD

Offers 1.1200 1.1245 1.1260 1.1285 1.1300 1.1325 1.1350-60 1.1385

Bids 1.1115 1.1100 1.1000

GBP/USD

Offers 1.5400-95 1.5420 1.5455 1.5475-80 1.5500 1.5530 1.5550-55 1.5580

Bids 1.5310 1.5300 1.5285 1.5260-55 1.5200-95

EUR/JPY

Offers 134.00 134.60 134.80 135.00 135.50 136.00

Bids 133.40 133.00 132.85 132.50

USD/JPY

Offers 120.00 120.25-30 120.50 120.85 121.00

Bids 119.40 119.00-10 118.85 118.60 118.40 118.20 118.00 117.85

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7300 0.7320-25 0.7345-50 0.7385 0.7400

Bids 0.7260-50 0.7230 0.7200-10 0.7180-85 0.7160

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7840 0.7880 0.7900-10 0.7930

Bids 0.7800 0.7750-40 0.7720 0.7700 0.7640

Markit's and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply's released its services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.K. on Wednesday. The index decreased to 56.7 in February from 57.2 in January, missing expectations for a rise to 57.6.

The chief economist at Markit Chris Williamson noted that "the combination of relatively robust economic growth, the improving labour market and signs that wage growth will pick up in coming months" might lead that the Bank of England will start to hike its interest rate later this year.

Williamson pointed out that Markit expects the first interest rate hike by the Bank of England in February 2016.

Stock indices traded mixed after the mixed economic data from the Eurozone. Retail sales in the Eurozone rose 1.1% in January, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a 0.4% gain in December. December's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone surged 3.7% in January, after a 3.1% increase in December. December's figure was revised up from a 2.8% gain.

Eurozone' final services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 53.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 53.9. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 53.9.

Germany's final services PMI declined to 54.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 55.5. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 55.5.

France's final services PMI remained unchanged at 53.4 in February, in line with expectations.

Markit's and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.K. decreased to 56.7 in February from 57.2 in January, missing expectations for a rise to 57.6.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,867.54 -21.59 -0.31 %

DAX 11,240.17 -40.19 -0.36 %

CAC 40 4,870.22 +0.97 +0.02 %

Gold prices traded sideways on Wednesday. Spot gold was at $1,203.70 a troy ounce in morning European trade.

The U.S. labour market data on Friday might provide the further direction of gold price.

The Reserve Bank of India's cut of its interest rate supported gold price on Wednesday. The central bank lowered its lending rate to commercial banks by 25 basis points to 7.5%. That was the second cut this year.

Eurostat released its retail sales data for the Eurozone on Wednesday. Retail sales in the Eurozone rose 1.1% in January, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a 0.4% gain in December. December's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone surged 3.7% in January, after a 3.1% increase in December. December's figure was revised up from a 2.8% gain.

The increase of retail sales indicates higher household spending due to lower oil prices.

Bloomberg

Saudis Boost Oil Pricing to Asia Most in Three Years

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter, increased the pricing terms for Arab Light sold to Asia by the most in three years as demand improved. Abu Dhabi raised its export prices for the first time since June.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-03/saudis-increase-oil-price-to-asia-most-in-3-years-on-demand

RTTNews

Asian Stocks Follow Wall Street Lower

Asian stocks followed Wall Street lower on Wednesday as caution set in ahead of a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and the all-important U.S. jobs report due out Friday, which could provide some clues about the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike this year.

Source: http://www.rttnews.com/2465686/asian-stocks-follow-wall-street-lower.aspx

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.47% to 18,203.37 points on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 decreased 0.45% to 2,107.78 points. There were released no major economic reports in the U.S. yesterday.

Lower car sales in February weighed on the U.S. indices.

Europe's stock indices traded mixed. Investors are awaiting the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday.

UK's FTSE 100 index was down 0.23% to 6,873.61 points. Germany's DAX 30 declined 0.30% to 11,246.81 points, while France's CAC 40 rose 0.12% to 4,874.86 .

Retail sales in the Eurozone rose 1.1% in January, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a 0.4% gain in December. December's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone surged 3.7% in January, after a 3.1% increase in December. December's figure was revised up from a 2.8% gain.

Eurozone' final services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 53.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 53.9. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 53.9.

Germany's final services PMI declined to 54.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 55.5. Analysts had expected the final index to remain unchanged at 55.5.

France's final services PMI remained unchanged at 53.4 in February, in line with expectations.

Markit's and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.K. decreased to 56.7 in February from 57.2 in January, missing expectations for a rise to 57.6.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.96% to 24,465.38, China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.53% to 3,280.33. The Chinese HSBC services purchasing managers' index rose to 52.0 in February from 51.8 in January.

Hong Kong's private sector activity increased at the fastest pace in one year in February.

Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.59% to 18,703.6 due to a stronger yen. There were released no major economic reports in Japan on Wednesday.

USDJPY 120.00 (USD 634m)

EURUSD 1.1200 (EUR 660m)

GBPUSD 1.5185 (GBP 375m)

AUDUSD 0.7750 (AUD 358m)

NZDUSD 0.7400 (NZD 375m)

EURJPY 136.50 (EUR 630m)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter IV +2.7% +2.5% +2.5%

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter IV +0.4% Revised From +0.3% +0.5% +0.5%

01:15 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI February 51.8 52.0

08:50 France Services PMI (Finally) February 53.4 53.4 53.4

08:55 Germany Services PMI (Finally) February 55.5 55.5 54.7

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) February 53.9 53.9 53.7

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services February 57.2 57.6 56.7

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies. There were released no major economic reports in the U.S. on Tuesday.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the Australian gross domestic product (GDP). Australia's GDP climbed 0.5% in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations, after a 0.4% rise in the third quarter. The third quarter's figure was revised up from 0.3% increase.

On a yearly basis, Australia's GDP rose 2.5% in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations, after a 2.7% gain in the third quarter.

Chinese HSBC services purchasing managers' index (PMI) also supported the Aussie. The index rose to 52.0 in February from 51.8 in January.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.1163

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.5342

USD/JPY: the currency pair rose to Y119.61

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) January +0.3% +0.2%

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) January +2.8%

13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report February 213 219

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.75% 0.75%

15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing February 56.7 56.5

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories February +8.4

19:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1276 (1198)

$1.1245 (2410)

$1.1206 (533)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1169

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1135 (5336)

$1.1108 (3480)

$1.1074 (6488)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 6 is 112847 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (6250);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 6 is 117624 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (6800);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 1.04 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 3

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5600 (2683)

$1.5501 (2870)

$1.5403 (2145)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5342

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5298 (2183)

$1.5199 (2252)

$1.5100 (1626)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 6 is 30469 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5500 (2870);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 6 is 35881 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5200 (2252);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.18 versus 1.18 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 3

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.