CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 04-06-2013

The dollar rose slightly against the euro, which in part helped U.S. data, which showed that the U.S. trade deficit with other countries widened in April, as the Americans have shown interest to foreign goods, such as cars and cell phones, which outpaced the growth of exports.

The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services grew by 8.5% in April to $ 40 300 million from a revised $ 37.1 billion in the previous month, the Commerce Department said. The deficit increased because imports rose by $ 5.4 billion, while exports increased by only $ 2.2 billion.

Economists had expected the deficit to reach $ 41.1 billion

The report obtained further evidence that the U.S. economy is currently working on the consumer, which makes spending, buying foreign cars, clothing, medicine and other goods at higher prices in recent months. The higher cost of Americans, the more it helps to compensate for the reduction in government spending and weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Indeed, the report provided some encouraging signs for exporters, with exports of automobiles and consumer goods reached record levels, although these figures are not adjusted for inflation. However, the report found signs that the economy of Europe and Asia are weakening.

In real terms, or inflation-adjusted deficit, which economists use to measure the impact of trade on gross domestic product, increased by $ 2.9 billion to $ 47.6 billion, compared with the previous month.

The report also shows other broader trends, such as falling demand for imported oil due to several factors, such as increased domestic production and higher fuel efficiency of cars. The seasonally adjusted in April crude oil imports fell to its lowest level since November 2010.

The pound was down against the U.S. dollar, even though the published data, which showed that after six months of decline in May, the PMI index in the construction sector in Britain rose to 50.8 vs. 49.4 previously. Analysts had expected the result at 49.7. The growth of the construction of houses was the most significant in the last 26 months. Meanwhile, the latest survey pointed to a further reduction of commercial construction and civil engineering work, although in both cases the rate of decline was less than April. However, the rate of growth of new orders and was slightly weaker than the long-term average. Assessing the prospects for 12 months, three times as many construction firms (40%) expects output growth than those that are waiting for lower (13%). This indicates the improvement in business confidence since April. Nevertheless, the employment was generally unchanged. Meanwhile, the acquisition of resources decreases the twelfth consecutive month in May, although the latter decline was minimal during this period. The survey respondents indicated a significant lengthening lead times from suppliers in May. The most notable deterioration in September 2007 largely reflects the low level of reserves and the power shortage.

The Canadian dollar was down against the U.S. dollar, while the U.S. currency gained broad support after saving the Reserve Bank of Australia, its interest rate, but did not rule out further cuts to come. Australia's central bank kept the overnight rate unchanged at 2.75%, but the statement was dominated by soft tone in a statement that the proposed further cuts in policy could provide. This has weakened the Australian dollar, the U.S. dollar giving little space to get in most of the major currencies. Add the presented data showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened to $ 40.30 billion in April, the expectations of $ 41.1 billion, while the trade balance was a deficit of Canada 567,000,000

European stocks rose, rebounding from a one-month low, as Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank is committed to its stimulus program.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.3 percent to 299.59 at the close. The benchmark gauge fell to the lowest level since May 2 yesterday amid speculation the Fed will scale back bond buying.

Lockhart said late yesterday that recent data suggest the economy lacks the strength to justify a reduction in the central bank's bond-buying program. "To the extent that the markets are seeing mixed messages, it simply reflects the debate that's going on among the colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee," Lockhart said in a interview. "The bigger picture is that any adjustment is not a major policy shift."

National benchmark indexes climbed in 12 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,558.58 +33.46 +0.51% CAC 40 3,925.83 +5.16 +0.13% DAX 8,295.96 +10.16 +0.12%

Santander, Spain's biggest lender, increased 1.5 percent to 5.58 euros. Inditex, the world's largest clothing retailer, added 0.7 percent to 97.92 euros.

Generali, Italy's biggest insurer, advanced 1.2 percent to 14.51 euros after Scor said it will pay about 579 million euros ($757 million) plus an "earnings adjustment" for Generali USA Life Reassurance Co. Scor, France's largest reinsurer, rose 2.7 percent to 22.86 euros.

STMicroelectronics, Europe's biggest chipmaker, gained 4.5 percent to 7.50 euros in Milan after Bozotti said in an interview with Le Figaro that orders have been positive in all regions. The company is seeking an increase of 5 percent to 10 percent in orders this year, according to the newspaper.

Rentokil Initial Plc rallied 2.6 percent to 90.75 pence after the Financial Times reported that private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice LLC is considering buying the pest-control provider's Initial Facilities unit. Clayton Dubilier plans to combine the office-maintenance unit with Balfour Beatty Plc's WorkPlace, the newspaper said, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

Portugal Telecom SGPS SA soared 7 percent to 3.37 euros, the biggest jump in three years. The Portuguese phone company said Zeinal Bava will become chief executive officer of Oi SA, while Portugal Telecom Chairman Henrique Granadeiro will take on the additional role of CEO.

Oil prices fell slightly, dropping at the same time below $ 102 a barrel as concerns about demand after weak manufacturing data from the U.S., which were presented yesterday, was offset by expectations that central banks must set aside any steps to rein in its efforts to stimulation. Recall that yesterday's data showed that manufacturing activity fell in May to its lowest level in nearly four years. But the data curbed speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon complete the program or reduce monthly purchases of assets of $ 85 billion, increasing growth in other assets and limiting losses for oil.

Experts point out that oil prices will most likely not vary considerably, until investors get a better idea of ​​when the Federal Reserve will cut back its incentive program. Part of shedding light on the economic picture will help data on the number of employed in non-agricultural sector, which will be published this Friday.

Oil is also under pressure amid fears of further growth stocks in the United States. According to forecasts, stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, rose by 1.3 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks are estimated to have grown by 600,000 barrels in the week ended May 31.

But the study, which took place before the weekly report on inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Department of Energy showed that crude oil is likely to fall by 200,000 barrels.

The cost of the July futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 92.83 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

July futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $ 0.3 to $ 102.11 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices have declined substantially, while leaving below $ 1,400 an ounce, which was associated with an increase in concerns about demand in the world's largest consumer of gold - India, after the government further restricted the import of precious metals. As it became known, the Reserve Bank of India has extended the restrictions on the import of gold by banks, which was introduced last month. It should be noted that gold imports will only be allowed to meet the needs of exporters of gold jewelery. This happened after the gold imports from India jumped in May to 162 tons from 142.5 tons in April. We add that the fall in metal prices also contributed to the strengthening of the dollar and uncertainty about the timing of the completion of the incentive program by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Recall that yesterday, prices rose by almost 2%, after U.S. data showed that manufacturing activity slowed to its lowest level in nearly four years, weakening the argument as to whether the Fed will reduce the monthly bond purchases, which now total $ 85 billion worth noting that in the past month, the central bank said it may complete the program of asset purchases sooner if economic indicators show signs of further strengthening.

Experts point out that before the next meeting of the policy of the Federal Reserve System, which will be held in late June, the economic data in the U.S. will remain the focus of attention. The first is to draw attention to the report on the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector, which will be presented this Friday.

Also today, it was reported that gold holdings in SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged on Monday, which is fixed for the fourth consecutive day.

The cost of the August gold futures on COMEX today dropped to 1395.20 dollars an ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3075, $1.3105

USD/JPY Y100.00, Y101.00

EUR/CHF Chf1.2460, Chf1.2485, Chf1.2500

AUD/USD $0.9600, $0.9700

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2000

USD/CAD C$1.0300, C$1.0400

U.S. stock futures rose slightly as investors awaited further signals on whether the Federal Reserve will pare bond purchases.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 13,533.76 +271.94 +2.05%

Hang Seng 22,285.52 +3.33 +0.01%

Shanghai Composite 2,272.42 -26.84 -1.17%

FTSE 6,569.12 +44.00 +0.67%

CAC 3,939.2 +18.53 +0.47%

DAX 8,322.91 +37.11 +0.45%

Crude oil $93.14 -0.33%

Gold $1395.30 -1.18%

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

Other:

General Motors (GM) target was raised to $36 from $31at Jefferies

Ford (F) target was raised to $18 from $16 at Jefferies

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3140/50, $1.3100/10, $1.3090

Bids $1.3050, $1.3035/30, $1.3000/990

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5420/30, $1.5395/400, $1.5380

Bids $1.5270, $1.5260/50, $1.5230, $1.5200/190

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9840/50, $0.9820/25, $0.9800, $0.9735/40

Bids $0.9650/40, $0.9620/00, $0.9590, $0.9570/60, $0.9550/45, $0.9500

EUR/JPY

Offers Y132.50, Y132.15/20, Y132.00, Y131.50

Bids Y130.50, Y130.20, Y130.00, Y129.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y101.50, Y101.25/30, Y100.95/00, Y100.60, Y100.40/50

Bids Y99.85/80, Y99.50, Y99.20/10, Y99.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8650/60, stg0.8620, stg0.8595/600, stg0.8575/80, stg0.8560/65

Bids stg0.8505/00, stg0.8475/70, stg0.8445/40

European stocks rose, rebounding from a one-month low, as Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank is committed to its stimulus program. U.S. index futures were little changed, while Asian shares increased.

The Stoxx 600 trades at 13.2 times estimated earnings, compared with 14.9 times for the S&P 500 and 13.1 times for the MSCI Asia Pacific, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Spain's IBEX 35 Index advanced 0.9 percent as the Labor Ministry said registered unemployment fell by 98,265 to 4.89 million in May from a month earlier. Economists on average had forecast a drop of 50,000.

Santander, Spain's biggest lender, rose 1.2 percent to 5.57 euros. Inditex, the world's largest clothing retailer, added 1.7 percent to 98.84 euros.

Generali, Italy's biggest insurer, advanced 1.3 percent to 14.52 euros after Scor said it will pay about 579 million euros ($757 million) plus an "earnings adjustment" for Generali USA Life Reassurance Co. Scor, France's largest reinsurer, rose 3.3 percent to 22.99 euros.

STMicroelectronics, Europe's biggest chipmaker, gained 4.6 percent to 7.51 euros in Milan after Bozotti said in an interview with Le Figaro that orders have been positive in all regions. The company is seeking an increase of 5 percent to 10 percent in orders this year, according to the newspaper.

FTSE 100 6,569.04 +43.92 +0.67%

CAC 40 3,943.24 +22.57 +0.58%

DAX 8,329.5 +43.70 +0.53%

Producer prices in the euro area declined in April, and the rate of fall matched economists' forecast, latest data showed Tuesday.

The producer price index decreased 0.2 percent on an annual basis in April, in line with economists' expectations. In March, prices increased by 0.6 percent, after being revised down from 0.7 percent.

Driving the overall decline, prices in the energy sector decreased by 2 percent, and intermediate goods prices dropped 0.3 percent from a year earlier.

These contractions were partially offset by increases of 0.7 percent and 1.9 percent respectively in prices of durable consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods. Capital goods prices were higher by 0.6 percent than in April 2012.

Among the member states, the largest decreases were recorded in Greece, Poland, Sweden and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, Estonia, Romania, Belgium and Latvia logged the highest increases.

Producer prices dropped 0.6 percent compared to March 2013, when they recorded a 0.2 percent fall. The index was forecast to decline 0.2 percent month-on-month.

Activity in the British construction sector rebounded moderately in May, supported by strong residential building activity, data from a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Logistics (CIPS) showed Tuesday. Economists had forecast the sector to remain in contraction.

The seasonally adjusted purchasing mangers' index (PMI) for the construction sector rose to 50.8 in May from 49.4 in April, and hit the highest level since October 2012. Economists had forecast a more modest increase to 49.8. Reading above 50 indicate expansion, while those below suggest decline.

Driving the turnaround, residential building activity increased in May at the fastest pace in more than two years Meanwhile, commercial construction and civil engineering activity recorded further contractions, though at slower rates compared to April.

New orders received by construction firms increased for the first time in one year. Reflecting the upturn in new work, production also increased for the first time since October 2012.

Employment levels in the sector were broadly unchanged during the month. Input costs increased for the fortieth successive month amid cost burdens from rising energy prices.

At the same time, confidence among entrepreneurs in the construction sector improved in May, with the majority of them anticipating a rise in output over the next twelve months.

EUR/USD $1.2950, $1.2960, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3075, $1.3105

USD/JPY Y100.00, Y101.00, Y102.00

EUR/CHF Chf1.2460, Chf1.2485, Chf1.2500, Chf1.2600

AUD/USD $0.9550, $0.9600, $0.9700

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2000

USD/CAD C$1.0300, C$1.0400

Asia's benchmark stock index snapped a three-day loss amid optimism the Federal Reserve will maintain record monetary stimulus. Japanese shares rallied the most in almost a month.

Nikkei 225 13,533.76 +271.94 +2.05%

Hang Seng 22,255 -27.19 -0.12%

S&P/ASX 200 4,900.81 +12.50 +0.26%

Shanghai Composite 2,272.42 -26.84 -1.17%

Man Wah Holdings Ltd., a furniture maker that gets 51 percent of its sales in the U.S., gained 7.7 percent in Hong Kong.

Daiwa Securities Group Inc., Japan's second-largest brokerage, rebounded 12 percent after slumping 11 percent yesterday.

Billabong International Ltd., the Australian surfwear company that has breached debt-payment terms, plunged 49 percent after takeover talks with two suitors ended.

00:25 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks

01:30 Australia Current Account, bln Quarter I -14.7 -8.9 -8.5

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY April -0.6% +0.6% +0.3%

02:15 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

The Dollar Index reached an almost one-month low yesterday after a report showed U.S. manufacturing contracted in May at the fastest pace in four years. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index for the U.S. fell to 49, the lowest reading since June 2009, from the prior month's 50.7 reading, the Tempe, Arizona-based group's report showed yesterday. Fifty is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

Private data tomorrow may show the pace of hiring in the world's largest economy quickened. ADP Research Institute will probably say tomorrow the pace of hiring in the U.S. quickened by 46,000 jobs to 165,000 in May from the previous month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Australia's dollar held declines after the nation's Reserve Bank signaled scope to ease further. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75 percent today, in line with 24 of the 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Interest-rate swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show traders see a 32 percent chance the central bank will lower borrowing costs at the next meeting on July 2.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3055

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5310-40

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y99.30-85

There is a full calendar Tuesday, with releases on both sides of the pond, although the early focus could be on the RBA's rate decision. German May car registrations numbers are set for release at some stage in the morning session, although there is no fixed time. At 0900GMT, the EMU April PPI data is set for release. At 0930GMT, Bundesbank board member Joachim Nagel on panel at a FAZ conference in Berlin. Then, at 1130GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will deliver a speech at the local governments' conference, in Berlin.

Change % Change Last

GOLD 1,411.60 19.00 1.36%

OIL (WTI) 93.25 1.28 1.39%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 13,261.82 -512.72 -3.72%

S&P/ASX 200 4,888.3 -38.27 -0.78%

Shanghai Composite 2,299.25 -1.34 -0.06%

FTSE 100 6,525.12 -57.97 -0.88%

CAC 40 3,920.67 -27.92 -0.71%

DAX 8,285.8 -63.04 -0.76%

DJIA 15,254.00 138.46 0.92%

S&P 500 1,640.42 9.68 0.59%

NASDAQ 3,465.37 9.45 0.27%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3069 +0,55%

GBP/USD $1,5317 +0,79%

USD/CHF Chf0,9472 -0,81%

USD/JPY Y99,44 -1,08%

EUR/JPY Y129,96 -0,47%

GBP/JPY Y152,31 -0,26%

AUD/USD $0,9768 +1,99%

NZD/USD $0,8099 +1,89%

USD/CAD C$1,0280 -0,89%

00:25 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks

01:30 Australia Current Account, bln Quarter I -14.7 -8.9

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY April -0.6% +0.6%

02:15 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.75% 2.75%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index May +1.1% +0.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y May +2.0% +2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction May 49.4 49.7

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) April +0.7% +0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM April -0.2% -0.2%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions April 0.0 -0.4

12:30 U.S. International trade, bln April -38.8 -41.1

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Esther George Speaks

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories May +4.4

23:30 Australia AIG Services Index May 44.1