CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-05-2017

EURUSD: 1.0850 (EUR 1.1bln) 1.0890 (410m) 1.0900 (2.54bln) 1.0930 (538m) 1.0950 (1.9bln) 1.0970 (652m) 1.0980 (716m) 1.1000 (2.7bln) 1.1050 (582m) 1.1100 (525m) 1.1180 (800m)

USDJPY: 111.00 (366m) 111.30 (388m) 111.50 (705m) 112.00 (787m) 112.50-60 (860m) 113.00 (292m) 113.60 (250m)

GBPUSD: 1.2800 (GBP 197m) 1.2850 (223m)

EURGBP: 0.8625 (EUR 246m)

USDCHF: 1.0170 (USD 240m)

USDCAD: 1.3725-35 (USD 524m) 1.3800 (360m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 270m) 0.7450-60 (379m) 0.7500 ( 1.3bln)

U.S. stock-index futures rose, supported by sound data on the U.S. labour market for April.

Stocks:

Nikkei -

Hang Seng 24,476.35 -207.53 -0.84%

Shanghai 3,103.36 -24.01 -0.77%

S&P/ASX 5,836.56 -39.81 -0.68%

FTSE 7,252.56 +4.46 +0.06%

CAC 5,388.25 +15.83 +0.29%

DAX 12,646.00 -1.78 -0.01%

Crude $45.53 (+0.02%)

Gold $1,231.50 (+0.24%)

Employment was little changed in April, while the unemployment rate declined 0.2 percentage points to 6.5%, the lowest rate since October 2008. The decrease was mostly the result of fewer youth searching for work.

Compared with 12 months earlier, there were 276,000 (+1.5%) more people employed and the unemployment rate was 0.6 percentage points lower. Over the same period, the total number of hours worked rose 1.1%.

n April, employment increased among people 55 and older, while it declined among men aged 25 to 54. Employment was little changed among women aged 25 to 54 and youths aged 15 to 24.

Employment rose in British Columbia and Prince Edward Island, while it was virtually unchanged in the other provinces.

More people were employed in educational services, health care and social assistance, and transportation and warehousing in April. At the same time, employment declined in business, building and other support services, as well as in accommodation and food services.

Public sector employment increased in April, while the number of private sector employees fell. Self-employment was little changed.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, financial activities, and mining.
Both the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.1 million, changed little in April. Over the year, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.6 percentage point, and the number of unemployed has fallen by 854,000.

In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents to $26.19. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 65 cents, or 2.5 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $21.96.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0985 1.1000 1.1030 1.1050 1.1080 1.1100 1.1130 1.1150

Bids: 1.0950-55 1.0920 1.0900 1.0870 1.0850 1.0820 1 .0800 1.0780 1.0750 1.0700

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2950-60 1.2975 1.3000 1.3020 1.3050 1.3080 1.3100

Bids: 1.2920 1.2900 1.2880 1.2850 1.2830 1.2800 1.2775-80 1.2760 1.2750

EUR/JPY

Offers: 123.50 123.75 124.00 124.20 124.50 125.00

Bids: 123.00 122.80 122.50 122.35 122.20 122.00 121.85 121.65 121.50

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8500 0.8530 0.8550 0.8580 0.8600

Bids: 0.8465 0.8450 0.8435-40 0.8400 0.8385 0.8350

USD/JPY

Offers: 112.50 112.85 113.00-05 113.20 113.50 113.80 114.00

Bids: 112.00 111.80 111.50 111.30 111.00 110.80 110.50

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7400 0.7420-25 0.7550-55 0.7480 0.7500

Bids: 0.7365 0.7350 0.7335 0.7300 0.7280 0.7250

• Cuts minimum reserve requirements on banks' hard currency liabilities to 8 pct from 10 pct as of may 24

• But Britain will be less connected to us after Brexit

• Still regards Trans-Atlantic free trade agreement as important project

The headline number for total hires last month was 98,000. April ADP employment number declined after two consecutive months of rocketing to 177,000 slightly lower than market expectation of 180,000. Today payrolls are expected at 190,000.

Instruments to watch - Euro (major resistance at 1.10), gold (broken but hovering close to key support at $1230), yen (waiting to break the resistance at 113), Aussie (hovering close to key support of 0.74), Kiwi (trading close to key support of 0.69) and treasuries (short end could gain grounds on stronger report).

Eurozone retailers recorded a rise in like-for-like sales during April, thereby reversing the downward trend seen in the previous two months. The upturn was underpinned by a strong expansion in Germany − the sharpest since July 2015 − and supported by a modest rise in France. In contrast, retail sales in Italy continued to fall, albeit to the weakest extent in five months.

The headline Markit Eurozone Retail PMI - which tracks the month-on-month changes in like-for-like retail sales in the bloc‟s biggest three economies combined - rose to 52.7 in April, from 49.5 in March, and signalled the steepest increase since July 2015

EURUSD: 1.0850 (EUR 1.1bln) 1.0890 (410m) 1.0900 (2.54bln) 1.0930 (538m) 1.0950 (1.9bln) 1.0970 (652m) 1.0980 (716m) 1.1000 (2.7bln) 1.1050 (582m) 1.1100 (525m) 1.1180 (800m)

USDJPY: 111.00 (366m) 111.30 (388m) 111.50 (705m) 112.00 (787m) 112.50-60 (860m) 113.00 (292m) 113.60 (250m)

GBPUSD: 1.2800 (GBP 197m) 1.2850 (223m)

EURGBP: 0.8625 (EUR 246m)

USDCHF: 1.0170 (USD 240m)

USDCAD: 1.3725-35 (USD 524m) 1.3800 (360m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 270m) 0.7450-60 (379m) 0.7500 ( 1.3bln)

EURJPY: 121.75 (EUR 181m)

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1072 (3668)

$1.1046 (3622)

$1.1030 (4098)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0978

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0930 (269)

$1.0887 (1478)

$1.0828 (2704)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 78567 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (8318);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 83587 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0200 (5697);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.06 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 4

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3204 (1659)

$1.3106 (2147)

$1.3009 (2928)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2935

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2889 (1094)

$1.2793 (1602)

$1.2696 (1183)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 28452 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2928);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 32244 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4982);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.13 versus 1.12 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Expected increase in underlying inflation still quite gradual due to low wage growth, heightened retail competition, low home rental growth

• Wage growth unlikely to slow any further but will remain low

• Forecast for unemployment rate implies ongoing spare capacity in labour market, likely to constrain wage growth going forward

• Household income growth likely to stay weak, making it hard to be certain about future pace of consumption growth

• Further signs emerging that slowdowns in mining states - Queensland, Western Australia - are coming to an end

• If commodity prices do not fall as far as anticipated the impact on growth, employment could be greater than assumed in the forecasts

• Residential investment will contribute less to growth in the period ahead than it did in the recent past

• Difficult to know if and when a stronger and durable recovery in non-mining business investment might take hold

• Stage higher commodity prices are not expected to add "materially" to domestic demand

• Recent regulatory measures likely to lead to "some slowing" in housing credit growth

• Japanese public's mindset is still quite cautious in terms of inflation expectations

• Ready to hold talks with OPEC on possible extension of global oil output freeze

• Jan-april oil production up 7.5 pct to 28.2 mln tons

Europe's benchmark stock index closed at almost 21-month high on Thursday, boosted by a round of well-received earnings reports from heavyweights such as Royal Dutch Shell PLC and HSBC Holdings PLC.

Stocks finished little changed Thursday, after a choppy session of trade as the energy sector tumbled in sync with a drop in crude oil and House Republicans took a step to begin rolling back Dodd-Frank reforms and Obamacare.

Slumping commodities prices in China sent stock markets there lower Friday, leading declines across the region as investors feared that the nation's crackdown on speculation and borrowing could hurt metals demand.