CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 06-12-2012

Rate of the euro fell sharply against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the economic weakness to continue in the next year, and therefore, the central bank may resort to lower interest rates.

Also, data released today showed that the gross domestic product in the euro zone fell 0.1% in the third quarter, compared with a fall of 0.2% in the previous three months. When it fell by 0.2 percent.

The single currency fell from nearly seven-month high against the yen after the European Central Bank has lowered its growth forecasts and said it sees "risks" for the region. Draghi said that the ECB predicts economy will shrink by 0.5% this year, slightly more than the 0.4% reduction which was originally reported in September. Meanwhile, the ECB cut its outlook for 2013, stating that the economy could shrink by 0.3% (initially show an increase of 0.5%), while in 2014 the growth of 1%. In addition, the ECB also lowered its inflation forecast for next year to 1.6% from 1.9%.

British pound during the first half of the day was growing against the dollar amid data showing that Britain's trade deficit widened more than expected, driven by a sharp fall in exports to countries outside the EU, and also due to the increase of imports from USA. The data showed that the deficit rose to Stg9.539 billion from - Stg8.439 billion the previous month, while economists had expected that figure will-Stg8.6 billion Also today, the Bank of England decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0 , 5% and the amount of the program of asset purchases at around 375 billion pounds.

But, despite this, the currency could not hold its positions, and dramatically collapsed, which was due to lower growth forecast by the ECB.

The yen strengthened against most major currencies as investors sought safer assets. The New Zealand dollar rose to a two-month high against the dollar after the Reserve Bank of the country said that the growth is likely to accelerate. Also today, the RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged at 2.5%.

The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partners, rose by 0.6% to 80.278. Recall that yesterday it dropped to its lowest level since Oct. 23.

European (SXXP) stocks advanced to an 18- month high amid optimism U.S. lawmakers will agree on a new budget and avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.

European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. jumped 8 percent after announcing a new shareholder structure and saying it will buy back shares. Daimler AG (DAI) rose 1.2 percent after selling half its remaining holding in EADS. (EAD) GDF Suez SA slid to its lowest ever after saying earnings will decline next year.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.7 percent to 278.82 at the close of trading, its highest since May 31, 2011.

ECB President Mario Draghi said he expects weak economic growth for the euro-area to continue into the next year.

At a press conference in Frankfurt, he said the ECB now forecasts that the economy will shrink 0.5 percent this year, more than the 0.4 percent contraction it predicted in September. The ECB cut its 2013 forecast to a contraction of 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent growth, he said.

The ECB kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.75 percent. The Bank of England also left its interest rate unchanged today.

National benchmark indexes rose in 15 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,901.42 +9.34 +0.16% CAC 40 3,601.65 +11.15 +0.31% DAX 7,534.54 +79.99 +1.07%

EADS jumped 8 percent to 29.40 euros after the company changed its ownership structure to allow Germany and France to each hold a 12 percent stake. EADS also said it will buy back as much as 15 percent of outstanding shares.

Daimler advanced 1.2 percent to 38.65 euros after selling a 7.5 percent-stake in EADS, valued at 1.66 billion euros ($2.17 billion). The automaker will sell more of its remaining 7.5 percent holding after a lock-up period of 180 days from the end of the sale of the first tranche.

Imagination Technologies Plc (IMG) climbed 6.4 percent to 426.5 pence after JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by Sandeep Deshpande said that the company’s first-half results next week will meet or beat analyst expectations. The stock has “considerable upside” in the medium term, they wrote.

Zumtobel AG (ZAG) advanced 5.9 percent to 9 euros after JPMorgan wrote that the Austrian lighting company’s profit margins will improve, raising its recommendation on the shares to overweight, the equivalent of buy, from neutral.

GDF Suez (GSZ) tumbled 11 percent to 15.29 euros, the lowest price since its initial public offering in July 2005. Europe’s largest utility by market value said late yesterday that recurring net income will be 3.1 billion euros to 3.5 billion euros next year, compared with an expected 3.7 billion euros to 4.2 billion euros in 2012. Bank of America lowered its recommendation on the shares to neutral, the equivalent of hold, from buy.

Saipem SpA (SPM), Europe’s largest oil contractor by market value, plunged 6.7 percent to 30.49 euros. The company said late yesterday that Chief Executive Officer Pietro Franco Tali and Alessandro Bernini, chief financial officer at its biggest shareholder, Eni SpA, resigned amid an Italian investigation into contracts in Algeria.

The price of oil fell sharply, reaching in this week's low, driven by comments from the ECB, which is said to lower forecasts for economic growth in the euro area, as well as the background of the fact that U.S. lawmakers tried to reach an agreement on a budget plan.

Futures fell by 2.3%, as ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank now projects that the economy will shrink by 0.5% this year, compared with the initial estimate of 0.4%, which was reported in September. Note that the reduction of the forecast growth and the ECB Draghi statement that economic weakness may continue adding concern over the situation in Europe.

At the same time, the Congressional Budget Office has stated that the U.S. economy will be reduced by as much as 0.5% next year, if Congress can not reach an agreement on the prevention of "financial failure."

We also recall that, according to information from BP Plc, last year at the U.S. accounted for 21% of world oil consumption, while in the 27 member countries of the European Union accounted for only 16%.

Meanwhile, tomorrow the oil price rise due to political tensions in the Middle East, where one third of the focus of world oil production. Recall that on December 3 Obama warned the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad not to use or distribute its stockpile of chemical weapons. In addition, U.S. officials saw evidence that the country is ready for battle, and perhaps could use such weapons to reflect the occurrence of militants.

January futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 86.05 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

January futures price of North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell $ 1.59 to 107.20 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Today, for most of trading gold was trading slightly lower, but the situation changed dramatically after the European Central Bank announced a reduction in GDP growth forecasts. According to their estimates, next year the economy contracted by 0.3%. Meanwhile, just three months ago predicted GDP growth of 0.5%. As for 2014, the ECB expects economic growth of 0.2% -2.2%.

Note that the confidence in gold began to decline this month after the course was not able to reach a level of $ 1,730 in November. Many investors preferring the more risky and interest-bearing assets, while the amount of investment in gold declined.

In addition, market participants expect tomorrow's report on employment in non-agricultural sector, as well as a clear signal that the United States intention to fight to the prevention of so-called "fiscal cliff."

Recall that yesterday, the gold price in euro drifted into oversold after falling nearly 2% this week, showing at the same time the biggest one-day drop in six months, and the lowest level since mid-July at around EUR 1,288.85 per ounce.

Meanwhile, investors' appetite for physical gold and physical securities investment products remains high, while in one of the largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust, it remains at a record high.

Demand in India, which has historically been the largest buyer of gold in the world, was also increased as prices have fallen to their lowest level in a month.

December futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1700.50 an ounce.

--No sign of medium term inflation risks increasing

--EMU bank credit supply,demand remain low

--See concrete, measurable progress in EMU periphery

--ECB forecast revisions don't change need for fiscal consolidation

--ECB OMT aims to remove fx risk, not unify interest rates

Pound continued to decline against the dollar after the ECB decided to leave rates unchanged, but lowered the outlook for growth and inflation. In addition, the head of the Bank said that the members of the Governing Council discussed the possibility of lowering rates.

Day falling EUR / USD has accelerated at a press conference by ECB President Draghi, who confirmed that the decrease in rates has been discussed, but in the end the majority voted for its preservation.

Pair falling happened after the Bank confirmed market expectations, lowered its forecast for growth and stating that the weak activity in the euro area will continue in 2013. Draghi also said that the ECB has been no active discussion of Greek debt buy-back program.

Currently, the EUR / USD is 1.2980, which is 0.67% below its opening price.

"Obviously," the scale of the ECB oversight over private banks will depend on the size of

It is obvious that the ECB will not be able to supervise the banks 6000

Economic recovery to begin in the second half of 2013

Must overcome the fragmentation of the financial and credit markets

Credit growth is limited mainly due to demand factors

Too early to talk about how there is a redemption of bonds of Greece

Greek public sector have been brought considerable demands

We continue to monitor the situation in the economy

About the prospects for the economy are seen mixed signals

Monetary conditions remain soft, especially after the decision to perform OMT

Mid-term assessment of price stability has not changed significantly

Weak economic outlook

No one denies the benefits of a single supervisory body for banks in the euro area

I am confident that we will reach agreement on a common supervisory authority for banks

The ECB raised the issue of difficulties lowering deposit rates, but did not pursue the matter

The ECB is much debate

The prevailing consensus - to leave interest rates unchanged

U.S. stock futures fell as the European Central Bank cut its growth forecasts, citing “downside risks.”

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  9,545.16 +76.32 +0.81%
Hang Seng 22,249.81 -21.10 -0.09%
Shanghai Composite 2,029.24 -2.67 -0.13%
FTSE  5,905.77 +13.69 +0.23%
CAC  3,592.24 +1.74 +0.05%
DAX 7,516.39 +61.84 +0.83%
Crude oil $87.13 -0.85%
Gold $1690.50 -0.19%

The downside risks associated with the uncertainty surrounding the sovereign debt crisis

There are downside risks to the economic outlook

In September, the ECB experts forecast that GDP growth in 2013 will be between 0.4% and 1.4%

ECB experts expect that GDP growth in 2014 will be between 0.2% and 2.2%

ECB experts expect that GDP growth in 2013 will be between 0.9% and 0.3%

I am sure that at the forthcoming meeting of the EU will be confirmed by the decisions taken at the June summit

The upcoming meeting of the EU would be an important

Draghi did not comment on the situation in Italy

Need to accelerate structural reforms to boost economic growth, employment

Single supervisory mechanism is necessary for the reintegration of the banking system

It is extremely important to increase the stability of banks, where it is needed

Lack of capital, risk attitudes constrain offer lending in some countries

Restrained credit growth reflects an adjustment of balance

Restrained credit growth reflects the slow growth of the economy, increased risk aversion

In September, the ECB experts predicted that the HICP in 2013 will be 1.3% - 2.5%

Experts expect the harmonized index of consumer prices / HICP / in 2014 will amount to 0.6% -2.2%

Experts expect the harmonized index of consumer prices / HICP / in 2013, experts expect the harmonized index of consumer prices / HICP / d in 2012 to be 2.5%

Underlying price pressures should remain moderate

Chevron (CVX) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Dahlman Rose

EUR/USD $1.2965, $1.2975, $1.2990, $1.3000, $1.3020, $1.3050

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.25, Y82.50

GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6040, $1.6010

EUR/GBP stg0.8100

EUR/CHF Chf1.2110

AUD/USD $1.0410, $1.0500

NZD/USD $0.8240, $0.8220

Inflation is expected to fall below 2% during 2013

The basic rate of monetary growth remains subdued

Inflation rates have decreased in recent years, as expected

The weakness of the euro zone economy is expected to continue in the coming year

Balance correction, stable uncertainty will put pressure on economic activity

The growth in global demand, the soft policy of the ECB will support economic growth

Governments need to reduce the budget, structural imbalances

We will continue the implementation of direct monetary operations (MRO), as is necessary

MRO will be carried out at least until July 9, 2013

Weak economic activity is expected to continue into next year

Financial market confidence was strengthened

Stronger external demand should support export growth

ECB experts expect that GDP growth in 2012 will be between -0.6% and -0.4%

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate November 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index November -0.7% +0.2% +1.0%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y November -1.7% -1.9% -1.3%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) November +0.1% 0.0% -0.3%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) November -0.2% -0.1% -0.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods October -8.4 -8.7 -9.5

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (revised) Quarter III -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (revised) Quarter III -0.6% -0.6% -0.6%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October -2.4% +0.9% +3.9%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) October -4.7% -5.6% -2.4%

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375 375

12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%

EUR/USD

Offers    $1.3160, $1.3150, $1.3140, $1.3100, $1.3185 

Bids   $1.3040, $1.3030-25, $1.3000

European stocks advanced, extending an 18-month high, amid optimism U.S. lawmakers will agree on a budget.

About 80 members of Congress, comprising Republicans and Democrats, signed a letter calling for an exploration of “all options” in a bid to end a deadlock between President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner over taxes for the highest- earning Americans.

Obama and Boehner spoke by telephone yesterday, according to Boehner spokesman Michael Steel. Congress must reach an agreement over the budget by the end of the year to prevent more than $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts from coming into effect.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will unveil updated economic forecasts, including the first outlook for 2014, at a press conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. in Frankfurt. Economists projected the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.75 percent, in a decision due 45 minutes before the briefing.

A separate survey of economists projected the Bank of England will also leave its interest rate unchanged in an announcement due at noon in London.

European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. jumped 7.8 percent to 29.36 euros after the company, which failed to win government approval for a merger with BAE Systems Plc earlier this year, changed its ownership structure to allow Germany and France to each hold a 12 percent stake. EADS also said it will buy back as much as 15 percent of outstanding shares.

Daimler advanced 1.2 percent to 38.67 euros after selling a 7.5 percent-stake in EADS, valued at 1.66 billion euros ($2.17 billion). The automaker will sell more of its remaining 7.5 percent holding after a lock-up period of 180 days from the end of the sale of the first tranche.

GDF Suez tumbled 13 percent to 15 euros, its lowest intra- day price since July 2005, after Europe’s largest utility by market value said late yesterday that recurring net income will be 3.1 billion euros to 3.5 billion euros next year, compared with an expected 3.7 billion euros to 4.2 billion euros in 2012.

На текущий момент:

FTSE 100 5,904.49 +12.41 +0.21%

CAC 40 3,606.2 +15.70 +0.44%

DAX 7,531.89 +77.34 +1.04%

AFT sold E3.97bln vs target E3.0bln-E4.0bln

- E1.375bln of 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, avg yield 1.01% (1.29%), cover 3.38 (3.82)

- E1.695bln of 3.75% Oct 2019 OAT, avg yield 1.27%, cover 2.77

- E0.9bln of 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT, avg yield 2.56%, cover 3.53

Correction of the single currency from session lows around $ 1.3080 stalled after a report on the euro area's GDP showed that economic activity in the region decreased by 0.1% q / q and 0.6% y / y in Q3, which was in line with analysts' expectations . In addition, in September, the unemployment rate in Greece has reached a new record high of 26% against 25.3% in August.

The immediate resistance for the pair EUR / USD is located at $ 1.3130/40 (area of ​​17 and 18 October and 5 December).

EUR/USD $1.2965, $1.2975, $1.2990, $1.3000, $1.3020, $1.3050

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.25, Y82.50

GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6040, $1.6010

EUR/GBP stg0.8100

EUR/CHF Chf1.2110

AUD/USD $1.0410, $1.0500

NZD/USD $0.8240, $0.8220

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in eight months, after data on U.S. services and factory orders beat estimates.

Nikkei 225 9,545.16 +76.32 +0.81%

S&P/ASX 200 4,509.35 -11.05 -0.24%

Shanghai Composite 2,029.24 -2.67 -0.13%

Honda Motor Co., the Japanese carmaker that counts North America as its biggest market, gained 1.6 percent in Tokyo.

Largan Precision Co., a supplier of camera lenses for Apple Inc.’s iPhone, jumped 7 percent in Taipei after reporting sales more than doubled last month.

SC Global Developments Ltd. surged 49 percent in Singapore after its Chief Executive Officer Simon Cheong offered to buy the rest of the property developer.

Yesterday the euro retreated from a seven-week high against the dollar, as the disappointing results of the Spanish bond auction and weak economic data for the euro zone prompted investors to lock in profits.

Note that the optimism associated with the fact that Greece would receive more financial aid from international lenders are pushing up the euro in recent weeks, but after the increased concerns about Spain, the single currency began to lose ground. In addition, from a technical point of view has increased the probability of falling below the level of the pair $ 1.31.

Analysts say that after reaching a new high of $ 1.3125, the rate began to show weakness, and if the pair will consolidate below $ 1.3094, then we will have confirmation of the technical picture, which points to the decline in the euro / dollar in the short term.

Also exerted pressure on the euro retail sales data for October, which fell sharply (by 1.2%), compared to the previous month (-0.2%). At the same time, the annual rate also fell much more than expected (3.6% compared to -0.8% in September).

Recall also that the ECB will announce its decision on the basic interest rate, which is expected to remain unchanged, but the gloomy outlook for the euro zone remains a possibility for further measures to support the economy.

Note also that the limited impact on the U.S. currency was a separate report, which showed that growth in the U.S. service sector grew in November, more than expected in November.

Some strategists say the euro will be reduced, if there are signs that U.S. policy can avoid the so-called "financial cliff", which could boost demand for the dollar.

British pound during the day trading in a narrow range, even though the weak data released  by the service sector, which increased the likelihood that in the 4th quarter, the economy can once again show the decline after the significant growth in the last quarter.

The yen fell above Y82 to the dollar, as the growth in the Chinese and other Asian stock markets prompted market participants to sell the currency of refuge, and buy riskier assets.

The dollar was also supported against the yen from the Bank of Japan, which was caused by the comments of the Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura that the central bank is ready to "take appropriate and decisive action" if the economy deviates too far from its base scenario.

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in seven months, as Chinese banks and insurers surged after a rule limiting insurers’ investments in commercial lenders was abolished and the country’s new leaders pledged to promote “urbanization.”

Nikkei 225 9,468.84 +36.38 +0.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,520.4 +16.82 +0.37%

Shanghai Composite 2,031.91 +56.76 +2.87%

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s biggest lender, gained 1.4 percent in Hong Kong.

Ping An Insurance Co. jumped 5.1 percent as HSBC Holdings Plc agreed to sell its stake in China’s second-largest insurer for $9.4 billion.

Fast Retailing Co. gained 3 percent in Tokyo after Asia’s No. 1 apparel seller reported higher domestic sales at its Uniqlo chain.

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate November 5.4% 5.5% 5.2%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed November 10.7 0.2 13.9

Change % Change Last

Oil 87.84 -0.04 -0.05%

Gold 1,695.10 +1.30 +0.08%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,468.84 +36.38 +0.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,520.4 +16.82 +0.37%

Shanghai Composite 2,031.91 +56.76 +2.87%

FTSE 100 5,892.08 +23.04 +0.39%

CAC 40 3,590.5 +10.02 +0.28%

DAX 7,454.55 +19.43 +0.26%

Dow +82.71 13,034.49 +0.64%

Nasdaq -22.99 2,973.70 -0.77%

S&P +2.21 1,409.26 +0.16% 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3067 -0,20%

GBP/USD $1,6093 -0,04%

USD/CHF Chf0,9263 0,00%

USD/JPY Y82,46 +0,69%

EUR/JPY Y107,76 +0,49%

GBP/JPY Y132,70 +0,63%

AUD/USD $1,0455 -0,14%

NZD/USD $0,8286 +0,60%

USD/CAD C$0,9918 -0,08%

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate November 5.4% 5.5% 5.2%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed November 10.7 0.2 13.9

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate November 3.0% 3.0%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index November -0.7% +0.2%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y November -1.7% -1.9%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) November +0.1% 0.0%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) November -0.2% -0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods October -8.4 -8.7

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (revised) Quarter III -0.1% -0.1%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (revised) Quarter III -0.6% -0.6%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October -3.3% +0.9%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) October -4.7% -5.6%

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50%

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375

12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75%

13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) October -13.2% +2.3%

13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 393 381