CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 09-03-2020

FXStreet reports that according to analysts at Nordea. USD/RUB trades at 74.4195, the next Bank of Russia (CBR) meeting is scheduled to take place on 18 March while the current global market sentiment suggests that the RUB will likely remain under pressure in the coming weeks.

“USD/RUB and EUR/RUB face a high risk of staying above 70 and 80 respectively in the coming weeks with continued high volatility. A V-shaped currency recovery is unlikely given the changing structure of the oil market after OPEC+ deal collapse.”

“Given the absence of the OPEC+ support for the oil market, oil prices could experience a prolonged period of staying at low levels. We see a slowdown in the global coronavirus spread as a necessary prerequisite for a sustainable RUB stabilisation.” 

“The currency could regain some ground closer to the middle of the year with a range of 65-70 vs USD and 75-80 now seen as our baseline for year-end.”

“We expect to see the key rate unchanged at 6% at the next CBR meeting. Experience of 2018 shows that the exchange rate pass-through to prices is around 6%, meaning that a currency depreciation by 10% roughly adds 0.6% to inflation at a 6-months horizon.”

“The CBR has suspended for the next 30 days the regular FX purchases done in accordance with the budget rule. The current oil price is below the base price implied by the budget rule for today. Thus starting from April the CBR will likely start selling FX from the national wealth fund to finance budget spending.”

FXStreet reports that in the opinion of Hans van Cleef from ABN Amro, oil prices will continue to trade lower, and for longer, due to the drop in global oil demand, in combination with the existing and most likely even rising oversupply.

“Global oil demand will only modestly recover during the second half of 2020. At the same time, global inventories will remain high and with the risk of all oil producers stepping up their production, the oil glut will remain for longer.”

“We expect that there is a good chance that OPEC will come to some sort of a deal before the existing agreement expires at the end of this month.” 

“For now, we have lowered our Brent oil forecast for the end of this quarter from USD 60/bbl to USD 40/bbl. For the second quarter, we have revised our forecasts from USD 55/bbl to USD 48/bbl with downside risks if a OPEC or OPEC+ deal is not reached in the course of this month. We have lowered the Brent year average forecast for 2020 to USD 49 from USD 58.”

“In our most important risk scenario, oil prices will remain trading low (USD 30-40 range). A recovery of the oil prices should then come from lower US production. However, it could take several months before the negative impact of the low oil prices start to impact the production numbers.” 

“If US production would starts to decline, oil prices could find their way up again and recover into the USD 40-50/bbl range.”

FXStreet reports that strategists at TD Securities note that, as if the demand shock from the coronavirus was not enough, oil markets are now being battered on the supply side as well due to the nearly four-year agreement between OPEC, Russia, and others to cut supply and support the market, has come to an abrupt end over the weekend.

“As Saudi and other OPEC members pushed for a 1.5m bpd cut to combat the virus demand shock, Russia refused to cut further, instead opting to stop providing support for US shale.” 

“In light of Russia's refusal, Saudi Arabia retaliated by lowering selling prices by the most in at least 20 years, offering large discounts to Europe, the Far East, and the US at the expense of Russia, and starting an all-out price war.” 

“Prices have tanked into the low $30/bbl range, with $20/bbl oil not out of the question as both supply and demand factors weigh heavily on markets.

“In terms of CTAs, we do not expect any material moves as funds were already positioned extremely short in the complex, and elevated volatility will keep excess positioning in check for now.”

FXStreet notes that the German economy minister Altmaier laid out a three-phase-plan for Germany’s economic policy response to the coronavirus hit. Economists at Danske Bank do not expect a pro-active stance from Germany. 

“In the first phase – where we currently are according to the government’s assessment – the state plans to help affected companies with liquidity problems via access to KfW credit and credit guarantees.”

“In a second phase, where the corona crisis worsens beyond some isolated companies and sectors and factory closures become more widespread, the government plans to make more funds available for the aforementioned instruments to a volume of ‘a few billion euros’.”

“Only in a third step, where Germany is faced with a fully-fledged economic crisis of 2008/09 dimensions, has the government signalled its readiness to enact a big stimulus package.”

“We expect Germany’s fiscal response to the corona crisis to stay reactive rather than pro-active, thereby remaining a disappointment to market expectations.”

U.S.: CPI likely held down – TDS

FXStreet notes that the United States of America is scheduled to release CPI Inflation data on 11 March and PPI data on 12 March while the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected on 13 March. Analysts at TD Securities forecast the outcome.

“The overall CPI was likely held down by a gasoline-led drop in the energy component. We see a close call between our 0.1% m/m forecast and 0.0% m/m after rounding.” 

“We expect a fairly trend-like 0.2% m/m rise in the core component (0.19% before rounding), keeping the 12-month change at 2.3%. That matches last year's average, consistent with a fairly stable trend.” 

“The overall PPI was likely held down by weakening in energy prices, similar to the pattern in the CPI. The core measures were probably fairly weak as well following above-trend readings in January.” 

“We expect the Michigan sentiment index to be down.”

• Will not allow the virus to infect the German economy
• Coronavirus impact will be discussed at EU summit on March 26

FXStreet notes that the move to 31.02 looks exhaustive and analysts at Commerzbank look for the market to now consolidate these losses. Brent Oil is trading at 35.757 after recovering in the last hours. 

“The massive gap lower seen on the oil market is exhaustive – it has sold off to a cluster of Fibonacci extensions, we have a 13 count and the daily RSI is down to 10.” 

“Initial resistance will be the 41.01 December 2018 low and the intraday Elliott wave count is suggesting that rallies will struggle to clear the 38.2% retracement of the move at 41.83.”

“Below 30.00 we have the 27.10 2016 low and the 23.05 April 2003 low.”

U.S. stock-index futures plunged on Monday, as the prospect of a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia added to fears about the economic impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Global Stocks:

• Virus stimulus should be targeted for cash transfers, wage subsidies and tax relief
• Governments need 'substantial' targeted measures to combat economic drag from virus
• Central banks should be ready to boost liquidity and other lendings to small business
• Governments should consider temporary loan guarantees

FXStreet reports that strategists at Danske Bank have changed their Fed call based on the latest events. They expect further rate cuts as soon as in March and do not rule out more measures. 

“We now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 100bp and our base case is the target range will decline all the way down to 0.00-0.25% in coming two months.” 

“We think the Fed will start by cutting 50bp in March but we would not be surprised if it happens already before the scheduled meeting. The Fed is still ruling out negative interest rates at this stage.”

“If necessary, the Fed will be willing to restart QE but it is not our base case yet.”

“If the coronavirus fears go away soon, the Fed can always adjust monetary policy accordingly later on. Right now it should, in our view, focus on avoiding the very negative risk sentiment to develop into a real economic crisis.”

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

FXStreet reports that in the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/CNH does not rule out a potential visit to the 6.87 area in the next weeks.

24-hour view: “USD traded between 6.9249 and 6.9619 last Friday, narrower than our expected sideway-trading range of 6.9280/6.9700. The underlying tone has weakened even though any decline is unlikely to challenge the 6.9000 support. Only a move above 6.9500 would indicate the current downward pressure has eased.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our view from last Wednesday (04 Mar, spot at 6.9430). As highlighted USD is expected to weaken further to 6.9000. Since then, downward momentum has improved and from here, if USD were to register a NY closing below 6.9000, USD could weaken further to 6.8700. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 6.9700 from 6.9950.”

Statistics Canada announced on Monday that the value of building permits issued by the Canadian municipalities rose 4.0 percent m-o-m in January 2020, following a revised 9.9 percent m-o-m surge in December 2019 (originally a climb of 7.4 percent m-o-m).

According to the report, the value of residential permits surged 12.7 percent m-o-m in January, as permits for multi-family dwellings climbed by 17.1 percent m-o-m, while single-family permits increased by 7.0 percent m-o-m.

At the same time, the value of non-residential building permits fell 7.8 percent m-o-m in January, as declines in institutional (-30.5 percent m-o-m) and commercial (-0.8 percent m-o-m) permits more than offset a gain in industrial permits (+6.8 percent m-o-m).

In y-o-y terms, building permits jumped 11.2 percent in January.

American Express (AXP) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; target $124

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) reported on Monday the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was at 210,069 units in February, down 1.9 percent from an upwardly revised 214,031 units in January (originally 213,224 units).

Economists had forecast an annual pace of 205,000 for February.

According to the report, urban starts declined 1.9 percent m-o-m last month to 199,304 units, as multiple urban starts dropped by 6.1 percent m-o-m to 146,072 units, while single-detached urban starts surged by 11.9 percent m-o-m to 53,232 units. At the same time, rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10,765 units.

FXStreet reports that according to FX Strategists at UOB Group further decline could still be on the cards for USD/JPY.

24-hour view: “USD just nose-dived to a low of 101.61 before snapping higher. While the risk is clearly on the downside, any decline could be punctuated by sharp rebound. The supposedly long-term support levels have ‘merged’ into short-term levels. The next support from here is at 101.00 followed by 100.00. From here, USD is not likely to move above the opening gap around 105.00 (minor resistance is at 104.00).”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We indicated last Friday (06 Mar, spot at 106.20) that USD ‘is still weak but it is left to be seen if the current momentum can carry it lower to next support of note at 105.00’. USD subsequently dropped to 104.98 during NY session on Friday. It gapped lower upon opening this morning and at the time of writing has snapped higher after plunging briefly a low of 101.58. The explosive decline is likely not over yet and the next support levels of note are 100.00 followed by the 2016 low near 99.08. The gap at 105.00 is acting as a ‘strong resistance’ now (level was at 107.30 last Friday).”

USD traded lower against EUR, GBP and the safe-haven JPY and CHF in the European session on Monday, as investors' flight to safe-haven assets, triggered by coronavirus fears, pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to a record low of 0.32 in overnight trading. The dollar index dropped 0.9% to 95.06, its lowest level since September 2018.

The U.S. Federal Reserve made an emergency rate cut of half a percentage point last week in between its policy meetings, the first such unscheduled cut since the financial crisis. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the money market has already priced in more aggressive easing - a 75 basis point cut - at the Fed’s meeting on March 18.

Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies, such as AUD, NZD and CAD, saw heightened pressure, as oil prices tumbled more than 22% after Saudi Arabia pledged to slash oil prices and increase output following the collapse of oil supply cut pact with Russia.

FXStreet notes that despite the RBA delivering a rate cut that was only priced as a low probability a week ago, AUD/USD has been resilient, trading around 0.66. Squeezes will offer better opportunities to sell, strategists at Westpac Institutional Bank advise. 

“AUD/USD resilience is due to the USD’s lurch lower, with JPY, EUR and CHF posting much larger gains as US yields tumbled.”

“The global mood swing against the US dollar is likely to extend near term, but the broader picture remains bearish for AUD crosses.”

“We look for a further cut to the 0.25% lower bound in April by the RBA, then the debate turns to QE.” 

“Look for choppy trade either side of 0.6600 near term, with squeezes offering opportunities for better levels to sell. Sub-0.64 still a reasonable multi-week target.”

FXStreet notes that a collapse in stock markets, co-ordinated policy statements, and emergency interest rate cuts: the events of the past week have inevitably led to comparisons to October 2008. But the differences are as significant as the similarities. Neil Shearing from Capital Economics takes a look at the possible consequences of the crisis. 

“The shock posed by the coronavirus affects both the supply- and the demand-side of the economy. Factory shutdowns, travel bans, supply-chain disruptions, and school closures represent a supply shock – the ability of the economy to produce goods and services is diminished. But fewer trips to shops, restaurants, and cinemas represent a demand shock – consumer spending falls. Large falls in the stock market also feed into weaker demand by reducing household wealth.” 

“These effects can be self-reinforcing since factory shutdowns can reduce the income of workers, which in turn reduces spending”.

“The outlook is unusually uncertain but our sense at this stage is that this is most likely to be a short, sharp shock.”

“The most likely worst-case scenario today is a sharp but probably short recession rather than an outright depression.”

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group note AUD/USD faces volatile sessions and is still expected to remain under pressure.

24-hour view: “We are rewriting this as AUD just plunged to the low 0.6312 before snapping higher. Volatility is likely to remain elevated and the risk for AUD is likely to be on the downside. 0.6300 is a decent support but a break of this level could lead to further weakness to 0.6250, even as long as 0.6200. This morning high of 0.6630 is acting as high-water mark now.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “AUD just nose-dived to a low of 0.6312 at the time of writing and this has put paid to our view from last Wednesday (04 Mar, spot at 0.6585) wherein the ‘weakness in AUD has stabilized’. At this stage, it is too early to tell whether the outsized drop is a one-off event or the start of fresh down trend. Further spikes in volatility is likely but overall, AUD is expected to remain under pressure unless it can move and stay above 0.6650. Looking forward, if AUD were to close below 0.6300, it could lead to further sharp drop as the next support of note is not until the 2008 low near 0.6000.”

FXStreet reports that Saturday's release of the Saudi Arabia official selling price (OSP) for ArabLight to Asia confirms OPEC's strategy u-turn in no uncertain terms. The drop in prices may well take a month or even several months but the direction is clear, in the opinion of analysts at Deutsche Bank. They expect crude oil prices to nosedive.

"We think previous lows will be exceeded, with Brent USD 19/bbl as a near term target. The decline of 43% in Brent from USD 108 to 46/bbl took 6 months."

"We expect Brent prices to drop below USD 40/bbl relatively soon and incoming months, risks have risen of surpassing the 2016 low of USD 27/bbl."

"We prefer short oil long vol strategies with a six to 12 month horizon, bear futures calendar spreads, or short Jun 2022 futures contracts, which now benefit from a strongly positive roll yield (~5%)."

"A similar reduction in US oil output today would likely require WTI prices to fall below USD 30/bbl and could take more than a year."

FXStreet reports that USD/JPY has eroded the base of its 2 year range at 104.10/05 - 2018 low and the 200 month ma. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, examines the pair technically.

"The break below 104.10 introduced scope to 101.80/100.70 (long term pivot and Fibo) and this should hold the initial test. Below here lies the 99.00 June 2018 low, then 95.00/94.75 long term Fibo."

"Near term rallies are indicated to fail in the 105.20/106.20 vicinity."

FXStreet reports that EUR/CHF failed ahead of the 55-day ma at 1.0720 last week and starts this week under pressure. Karen Jones from Commerzbank analyzes the EUR/CHF pair from a technical perspective.

"We have broken below 1.0585 and this targets 1.0250/35, a long term Fibo and April 2015 low. Above the 55-day ma would allow for a test of the 1.0812 September low."

"In order to negate downside pressure longer-term the cross will need to regain the 1.1058 October high on a daily chart closing basis to generate some upside interest."

• Covid-19 (coronavirus) has spread beyond China and our 2020 base case global oil demand forecast is cut by 1.1 mb/d. For the first time since 2009, demand is expected to fall year-on-year, by 90 kb/d. In 1Q20, China's demand falls by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y with global demand down 2.5 mb/d. We assume that oil demand returns to close to normal in 2H20.

• Global oil supply fell by 580 kb/d in February as production from Libya slowed to a trickle. At 100 mb/d, output was virtually flat on a year ago, with non-OPEC gains of 2.4 mb/d offsetting declines from OPEC. Robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the call on OPEC crude to 27.3 mb/d. In 1Q20, the call is 25 mb/d, 3.5 mb/d below the group's assumed output for the period.

• Global refining throughput in 2020 is expected to decline for the second consecutive year, falling below 2017 levels as demand for transport fuels plunges in the wake of the coronavirus. In 1Q20, refining intake has been revised down by 1.2 mb/d, primarily due to China, where February runs are estimated at 10.1 mb/d, down 2.7 mb/d y-o-y. February margins saw short-lived support from falling crude oil prices.

• OECD industry stocks rose by 27.8 mb to 2 930 mb in January as a build in product inventories more than offset counter-seasonal draws in crude stocks. Total oil stocks stood 2.9 mb above the five-year average and covered 63 days of forward demand. Short-term floating storage of crude oil built 1.9 mb in February to 80.2 mb, most of which is owned by Iran. Satellite data show a near 1 mb/d increase in Chinese stocks, reflecting slowing demand.

According to the report from Sentix, the global spread of the new coronavirus is plunging the world economy into recession. The global economic overall index falls from +8.1 to -12 points. Never before have economic data from sentix collapsed so sharply in all regions of the world within a month.

In Euroland, the overall index fell by 22.3 points, to -17.1 points. This is the sharpest fall within one month since the survey began. While the collapse of the situation values is hardly surprising and, at -18.3 points, probably corresponds to the extent that people are already feeling the effects, the fall in the expected values to the lowest value since August 2012 is a negative surprise. After all, this means nothing other than that investors are preparing for a long period of economic weakness.

The same picture also dominates globally. The Asia ex-Japan region is falling back into recession, as are Europe and Japan. In the USA the situation is better due to the previously very robust situation, but here too a downturn is expected.

CNBC reports that the plunge in oil prices has hit many emerging market currencies - and their central banks now face a "policy dilemma" of how to support their respective economies amid an expected slowdown in growth, an analyst said.

"Central banks across emerging markets are, on the one hand, facing huge sell-offs in their currencies; and on the other hand, a slowdown in growth," Cedric Chehab, head of country risk and global strategy at Fitch Solutions, told CNBC.

"So what do they do? Do they cut interest rates to stimulate growth or do they raise interest rates to support their currencies? I think a lot of central banks are going to be squeezed by this policy dilemma now," he added.

Oil prices dived to around $30 per barrel on Monday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, failed last week to strike a deal with its allies - including Russia - to cut production further.

Following that, Saudi Arabia - the world's largest oil exporter - slashed its prices for April and plans to increase production above 10 million barrel per day next month, reported Reuters. The kingdom currently pumps 9.7 million barrels per day, but has the capacity to ramp up to 12.5 million barrels per day.

Those developments in the oil markets hurt currencies of emerging economies with huge exposure to oil, such as Mexico and Russia, as well as those with "twin" current account and fiscal deficits, such as Indonesia, according to Chehab.

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group suggested EUR/USD could extend the upside to the 1.1500 area if manages to clear 1.1400 on a NY closing basis.

24-hour view: "EUR retreated after briefly spiking a high of 1.1492. The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself. From here, EUR could continue to trade in a volatile manner and within a broad 1.1300/1.1500 range."

Next 1-3 weeks: "We highlighted last Friday (06 Mar, spot at 1.1225) that 'upward momentum is given a strong boost'. We added, 'the next level to focus on is at 1.1330 followed by 1.1370'. EUR subsequently surged to a high of 1.1354 during NY session last Friday before extending its gains this morning. Clearly, momentum has improved by leaps and bounds but from here, there is a strong mid-term hurdle at 1.1400. If EUR were to register a NY closing above 1.1400, it could lead to further rapid rise as there is hardly any resistance level of note until 1.1500 (next resistance is at 1.1640). All in, there is no indication that the current rally is ready to take a breather soon. Only an unlikely breach of 1.1230 ('strong support' has shifted markedly higher from Friday's level of 1.1100) would indicate the current advance has run its course."

eFXdata reports that TD Research discusses its expectations for the RBNZ policy trajectory.

"Compared with Australia, the NZ growth outlook is more positive unemployment at decade lows, wages growth at decade highs, a strong housing market supporting consumption, inflation near target, fiscal stimulus along with a weaker NZD serving as a buffer. However, the Bank cannot ignore global developments. Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby may have said monetary policy is not the right tool to address the impact of the coronavirus. But by the time the RBNZ meets on 25th Mar, the Fed is expected to have eased at a minimum 75bps and delivered as much as 100bps and the BoC appears prepared to match Fed moves," TD notes.

"With developments moving so quickly, we don't think the RBNZ can afford to be seen as being behind the curve. Accordingly, we now expect the RBNZ to cut 50bps at its 25th Mar meeting (an inter-meeting move is unlikely given developments so far but cannot be ruled out if the newsflow deteriorates) with another 25bps cut at its May meeting," TD adds.

Oil guru Daniel Yergin told CNBC that world is in a period of "true turmoil," with financial markets and economies in crisis while the new coronavirus continues to spread rapidly.

Following a disagreement on production cuts between OPEC and its allies, oil markets plunged 26% on Monday. Russia declined to lower output last week, and Saudi Arabia announced Saturday that it was offering discounts to its official selling prices next month. The kingdom is also reportedly planning to raise production.

On the back of these events, Asia markets saw sharp drops Monday, while U.S. stock futures pointed to a much lower open.

"We are in another period of true turmoil," said Yergin, the vice chairman of IHS Markit.

Referring to what happened in 2008 and 2009, he said that was more focused on the financial markets. "This is now turning into an economic crisis along with a health crisis," he told CNBC, referring to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

"I think we're going to see a lot more freezing up of economic activity in the United States, not because of economics but because of the virus," he said. "The fear is now pervasive."

The "backdrop" to all this is the coronavirus, Yergin said. "That's what really splintered the (OPEC+) alliance," he said.

On Monday, the Japanese yen rose against the US dollar as Asian stock markets collapsed amid falling oil prices. The yen jumped almost 3% and was close to its highest level in three years.

Zach Pandl, a Goldman Sachs expert, said last week that the yen could reach the 95 mark if global markets remain in limbo for the next couple of months.

The deepening of the coronavirus outbreak and the collapse in oil prices were named today as the main "tailwind" for the "safe haven".

The day after Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, promised to lower oil prices and significantly increase its production level, oil prices fell by 30%.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index, which tracks the exchange rate of this currency against a basket of other currencies, fell by 1.1%.

eFXdata reports that Danske Research discusses its expectations for ECB March policy meeting.

"We expect the ECB to stand ready to ease monetary policy via rate cuts should the economic outlook deteriorate sharply in the near future. As such, we see the possibility of a rate cut in Q2, perhaps as early as the 30 April meeting...We expect the new ECB staff projections to lead to lower GDP growth and broadly unchanged inflation projections. However, with the limited amount of data released taking into account the COVID-19 effect, we believe markets will focus on the narrative rather than the projections," Danske notes.

"EUR/USD continues to be inversely related to market sentiment across credit, equities and commodities and, on the rates sides, driven mainly by Fed expectations and the unwinding of short EUR/USD positions. With the ECB likely to underwhelm market expectations, this spells upside risk in the cross, notably for Thursday, if we are right in seeing no rate cut and - depending on the spot level heading into the meeting - there is a likelihood we could see a test of the January 2019 highs (slightly above 1.15)...While failure to deliver has the potential to push EUR/USD higher, we would sell into such a move, as we view the direction of global equities as more crucial," Danske adds.

According to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in January 2020, production in industry was up by 3.0% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis. Economists had expected a 1.7% increase. In December 2019, the corrected figure shows an decrease of 2.2% (primary -3.5%) from November 2019.

In January 2020, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 2.9%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods increased by 5.1% and the production of capital goods by 2.1. The production of consumer goods remained at the same level of the previous month. Outside industry, energy production was down by 0.2% in January 2020 and the production in construction increased by 4.7%.

A separate report from Destatis showed that Germany exported goods to the value of 106.5 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 92.7 billion euros in January 2020. Destatis also reports that German exports decreased by 2.1% and imports by 1.8% in January 2020 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports remained unchanged and imports were up 0.5% compared with December 2019.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 13.9 billion euros in January 2020. In January 2019, the surplus of the foreign trade balance amounted to 14.5 billion euros. The calendar and seasonally adjusted surplus of January 2020 was 18.5 billion euros.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1525 (1237)

$1.1492 (3155)

$1.1463 (5318)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1400

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1225 (682)

$1.1196 (704)

$1.1162 (2290)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 3 is 73404 contracts (according to data from March, 6) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (5318);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3154 (1557)

$1.3128 (1538)

$1.3106 (890)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3053

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2902 (715)

$1.2873 (1318)

$1.2841 (2850)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 3 is 16933 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (2529);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 3 is 18838 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (2850);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 6

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.