CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 11-04-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 53.40 0.00%

Gold 1,276.50 +0.18%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -50.01 18747.87 -0.27%

TOPIX -4.55 1495.10 -0.30%

Hang Seng -173.72 24088.46 -0.72%

CSI 300 +11.25 3516.89 +0.32%

Euro Stoxx 50 -10.40 3470.04 -0.30%

FTSE 100 +16.56 7365.50 +0.23%

DAX -61.17 12139.35 -0.50%

CAC 40 -5.59 5101.86 -0.11%

DJIA -6.72 20651.30 -0.03%

S&P 500 -3.38 2353.78 -0.14%

NASDAQ -14.15 5866.77 -0.24%

S&P/TSX -3.68 15727.11 -0.02%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0605 +0,11%

GBP/USD $1,2490 +0,58%

USD/CHF Chf1,0071 -0,13%

USD/JPY Y109,59 -1,16%

EUR/JPY Y116,20 -1,07%

GBP/JPY Y136,85 -0,58%

AUD/USD $0,7496 -0,08%

NZD/USD $0,6955 -0,10%

USD/CAD C$1,3323 -0,04%

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence April 99.7

01:30 China PPI y/y March 7.8% 7.6%

01:30 China CPI y/y March 0.8% 1%

08:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y February 2.2% 2.2%

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate February 4.7% 4.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count March -11.3 -3

09:00 China New Loans March 1170 1200

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index March 0.2% -0.2%

14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.5% 0.5%

14:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories April 1.566

15:15 Canada BOC Press Conference

18:00 U.S. Federal budget March -192 -150

20:15 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

22:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI March 55.2

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y March 2.2%

Major US stock indices closed in the red on Tuesday, as growing geopolitical tensions sent investors into safer assets. The White House said on Monday that President Donald Trump was open to authorizing additional attacks on Syria if his government again uses chemical weapons, while North Korea warns of a nuclear attack on the United States if they are provoked by the approach of the US Navy strike group to Western part of the Pacific Ocean.

In addition, according to a survey of vacancies and labor turnover (JOLTS), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the USA, in February the number of vacancies increased to 5.743 million. The indicator for January was revised downward - to 5.625 million from 5.626 million. Analysts had expected, That the number of vacancies will increase only to 5.655 million. The vacancy rate rose to 3.8 percent compared to 3.7 percent in January. In addition, it became known that hiring amounted to 5.314 million against 5.424 million in January. The level of hiring was 3.6 percent in February, decreasing by 0.1 percent compared to January. With regard to layoffs, their number was 3.084 million compared with 3.186 million in January. The level of layoffs was 2.1 percent compared to 2.2 percent in January.

Most components of the DOW index showed a decrease (21 of 30). More shares fell shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL, -1.34%). The leader of growth were shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD, + 0.80%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index finished trading in negative territory. The conglomerate sector fell most of all (-0.9%). The maximum increase was recorded in the sector of industrial goods (+ 0.2%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.03% 20.651.96 -6.06

Nasdaq -0.24% 5,866.77 -14.16

S & P -0.14% 2,353.85 -3.31

• We hope that eventually attitudes will become more positive

• U.S strike on Syria reminds him of WMD claims in Iraq

• Russia has information that strikes being readied on Damascus region with aim of blaming Syrian govt

EURUSD:1.0500 (EUR 221m) 1.0550 (230m) 1.0600 (556) 1.0625 (193m) 1.0650-60 (452m) 1.0700-05 (535m) 1.0755-60 (641m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 300m) 1110.45-55 (457m) 110.70-75 (USD 650m) 111.00-10 (USD 570m) 111.45-50 (565m) 111.75-80 (300m) 111.85-112.00 (1.03bln)

GBPUSD: 1.2400-10 (GBP 260m)

USDCHF: 1.0115-25 (USD 180m)

AUDUSD: 0.7520-30 (AUD 520m) 0.7550 (306m) 0.7620-25 (577m)

USDCAD: 1.3215 (USD 210m) 1.3305 (220m)

U.S. stock-index were little changed as investors preferred to avoid risks amid rising geopolitical tensions in Syria and North Korea and ahead of the start of first-quarter earnings season later this week.

Stocks:

Nikkei 18,747.87 -50.01 -0.27%

Hang Seng 24,088.46 -173.72 -0.72%

Shanghai 3,288.19 +18.80 +0.58%

FTSE 7,394.59 +45.65 +0.62%

CAC 5,111.48 +4.03 +0.08%

DAX 12,187.70 -12.82 -0.11%

Crude $52.99 (-0.17%)

Gold $1,261.70 (+0.60%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

Other:

Walt Disney (DIS) added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman

Deere (DE) initiated with a Buy at Stifel

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0600-05 1.0630 1.0650 1.0670 1.0685 1.0700

Bids: 1.0580 1.0565 1.0550 1.0530 1.0500 1.0485 1.0465 1.0450

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2430 1.2450 1.2465 1.2480 1.2500 1.2520 1.2550-55 1.2500

Bids: 1.2380-85 1.2350 1.2330 1.2300 1.2285 1.2250

EUR/JPY

Offers: 118.00 118.30 118.50 118.65 118.80 119.00

Bids: 117.65 117.50 117.30 117.00 116.85 116.50 116.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8550-55 0.8580 0.8600 0.8630 0.8650

Bids: 0.8520 0.8500 0.8485 0.8465 0.8450 0.8430 0.8400

USD/JPY

Offers: 110.75-80 111.00 111.30 111.50 111.65 111.80 112.00

Bids: 110.45-50 110.25-30 110.00 109.80 109.50 109.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7520-25 0.7550 0.7565 0.7580 0.7600

Bids: 0.7480-85 0.7465 0.7450 0.7425-30 0.7400

• All G7 nations agree Assad cannot be part of Syria's future

• G7 will tell Russia it must not be hypocritical and must accept its responsibilities in Syria

• We will evaluate all data ahead of key rate meeting

• Inflation target of 4 pct could be reached significantly earlier than planned

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased substantially by 6.7 points in April 2017. The indicator now stands at 19.5 points, thereby reaching its highest level since August 2015. Though the long-term average as calculated from the beginning of the survey (December 1991) is yet to be beaten, these results are comparable to the expectations prior to the Brexit vote in June 2016.

"The German economic situation has proved fairly robust in the first quarter. This is highlighted by the solid figures for growth in industrial production, the construction sector and retail sales from February. In addition, the consistently high labour demand has boosted private consumption. The financial market experts expect this positive development to continue," comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach .

In February 2017 compared with January 2017, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In January 2017 industrial production rose by 0.3% in both zones. In February 2017 compared with February 2016, industrial production increased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU28.

The decrease of 0.3% in industrial production in the euro area in February 2017, compared with January 2017, is due to production of energy falling by 4.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.1%. Production of durable consumer goods remained stable, while capital goods rose by 0.9% and intermediate goods by 1.0%. In the EU28, the decrease of 0.2% is due to production of energy falling by 3.9% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.9%, while production of durable consumer goods rose by 0.4% and both capital goods and intermediate goods by 0.8%. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were registered in Ireland (-15.5%), France (-1.6%) and Croatia (-1.5%), and the highest increases in Bulgaria and Slovenia (both +3.6%), Hungary (+3.4%) and Latvia (+3.2%).

UK House prices grew by 5.8% in the year to February 2017, 0.5 percentage points higher than January 2017. However this still remains below the average annual house price growth seen in 2016 which was 7.3%.

In terms of housing demand the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) residential market survey for February 2017 reported that housing market activity remained subdued. Transaction volumes and new buyer enquiries are broadly unchanged since November 2016. Despite this, RICS expect near term price expectations to remain positive, albeit steady.

RICS' new buyer enquiries figures are supported by the Bank of England approvals for lending secured on dwellings for February 2017 which showed that the volume of approvals for house purchase decreased by 5.6% compared to February 2016.

Factory gate prices (output prices) rose 3.6% on the year to March 2017, from 3.7% in February 2017, which is the ninth consecutive period of annual price growth.

Prices for materials and fuels which are paid by UK manufacturers for processing (input prices) rose 17.9% on the year, which is a slight decrease from February 2017; this is the ninth consecutive period of annual price growth.

Prices of imported materials and fuels increased 17.1% on the year to March 2017, which is the second consecutive month inflation from imported materials and fuels has been lower than total inputs.

A recent spike in export prices following the depreciation of sterling resulted in a boost to export turnover for manufacturers of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH, not a National Statistic) 12-month inflation rate was 2.3% in March 2017, unchanged from February.

The rate has been steadily increasing following a period of relatively low inflation in 2015.

Rising prices for food, alcohol and tobacco, clothing and footwear, miscellaneous goods and services were the main upward contributors to change in the rate.

These were largely offset by a downward contribution from transport, particularly air fares and, to a lesser extent, motor fuels.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was also 2.3% in March 2017, unchanged from February.

EURUSD:1.0500 (EUR 221m) 1.0550 (230m) 1.0600 (556) 1.0625 (193m) 1.0650-60 (452m) 1.0700-05 (535m) 1.0755-60 (641m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 300m) 1110.45-55 (457m) 110.70-75 (USD 650m) 111.00-10 (USD 570m) 111.45-50 (565m) 111.75-80 (300m) 111.85-112.00 (1.03bln)

GBPUSD: 1.2400-10 (GBP 260m)

USDCHF: 1.0115-25 (USD 180m)

AUDUSD: 0.7520-30 (AUD 520m) 0.7550 (306m) 0.7620-25 (577m)

USDCAD: 1.3215 (USD 210m) 1.3305 (220m)

Romania's consumer prices increased for the third straight month in March, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, cited by rttnews.

The consumer price index edged up 0.2 percent year-over-year in March, the same rate of increase as in February.

Grocery prices grew 1.7 percent annually in March, while costs for services dropped by 1.4 percent. Non-food prices also registered a decline of 0.2 percent.

Month-on-month, consumer prices edged up 0.1 percent in March.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0796 (630)

$1.0760 (1074)

$1.0708 (462)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0583

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0534 (746)

$1.0489 (1672)

$1.0434 (2675)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 51615 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (4371);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 55937 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0400 (5347);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.13 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 10

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2707 (604)

$1.2610 (380)

$1.2514 (960)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2415

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2289 (636)

$1.2192 (548)

$1.2094 (625)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 15639 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1198);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 17488 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3063);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.12 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 10

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Moody's Investors Service says that Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Sweden -- all rated Aaa stable -- are exposed, through different channels and to varying degrees, to a potential housing market correction.

However, unless the reversals in house prices were accompanied by other long-lasting negative shocks, they would not fundamentally undermine the sovereigns' credit profiles.

Moody's notes that all four countries have strong banking systems with high capitalization levels, conservative business models and strong liquidity, which lower the sovereigns' banking system-related contingent liability risks. Such contingent liabilities were among the highest costs of housing crises elsewhere.

Moody's conclusions were contained in its just-released report, "Sovereigns -- Advanced Economies: Credit Profiles Resilient to Rising Household Debt and Stretched Housing Affordability."

The report focuses on the four countries that have experienced the largest increases, among advanced economies, in house prices and household debt over the last three years. House prices rose by more than 30% in real terms in New Zealand and Sweden and by approximately 20% in real terms in Canada and Australia. In all four cases, these increases have been accompanied by higher household leverage.

In the event of a reversal in house price gains or other economic or financial shocks, higher household debt levels raise the risk of consumer retrenchment and imply higher likelihood of stress in the banking system, all else being equal.

• Fed policy independence from political pressure very important

• Economy's growth potential is likely a bit below 2 pct

• Inflation still slightly below 2 pct goal

• We think gradual path of rate hikes will get fed to neutral policy stance; can't wait too long to tighten

• We are near reaching objectives

• Appropriate policy stance is closer to neutral now

• Fed aims to allow economy to coast

• Economy mainly supported by consumer spending

• Global economy seems to be operating in slightly more robust way

• Will be able to manage policy appropriately, including raising rates on excess reserves and shrinking balance sheet

• Level of rates and size of balance sheet will be topics for exit strategy

• Want gains in earnings and wages to accompany gains in consumer prices

European stocks finished fractionally lower on Monday, with investors appearing to hold back from making major moves following last week's U.S. airstrikes against Syria in retaliation for a suspected chemical weapons attack that killed civilians.

U.S. stocks eked out gains Monday as strength in energy shares helped to offset selling pressure sparked by geopolitical concerns, but market sentiment remained cautious going into the first-quarter earnings season.

Rising crude oil prices drove gains in key commodities-focused equity markets in Asia, helping to offset the impact of geopolitical tensions. Brent-oil futures moved above $56 a barrel for the first time in a month, with prices in Asia adding to overnight gains. Oil prices are on their longest winning streak since August, as production outages in Libya and Canada add to rising concerns after last week's U.S. airstrikes in Syria.

• Lavrov discussed Syria with his Iranian counterpart