CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 12-04-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 52.82 -0.55%

Gold 1,288.90 +0.85%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -195.26 18552.61 -1.04%

TOPIX -15.56 1479.54 -1.04%

Hang Seng +225.04 24313.50 +0.93%

CSI 300 -7.24 3509.65 -0.21%

Euro Stoxx 50 -1.53 3468.51 -0.04%

FTSE 100 -16.51 7348.99 -0.22%

DAX +15.35 12154.70 +0.13%

CAC 40 -0.75 5101.11 -0.01%

DJIA -59.44 20591.86 -0.29%

S&P 500 -8.85 2344.93 -0.38%

NASDAQ -30.61 5836.16 -0.52%

S&P/TSX -78.71 15648.40 -0.50%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0666 +0,57%

GBP/USD $1,2543 +0,42%

USD/CHF Chf1,0026 -0,45%

USD/JPY Y108,97 -0,57%

EUR/JPY Y116,24 +0,03%

GBP/JPY Y136,68 -0,12%

AUD/USD $0,7531 +0,46%

NZD/USD $0,6983 +0,40%

USD/CAD C$1,3246 -0,58%

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation April 4.0%

01:30 Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate March 5.9% 5.9%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed March -6.4 20

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln March -9.15 10

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) March 0.6% 0.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) March 2.2% 1.6%

06:45 France CPI, y/y (Finally) March 1.2% 1.1%

06:45 France CPI, m/m (Finally) March 0.1% 0.6%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m March -0.2% 0.1%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y March 1.3% 0.9%

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey

09:00 U.S. IEA Monthly Report

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM February 0.1% 0.2%

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) February 0.6% -0.7%

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 2028 2028

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y March 2.2% 2.4%

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m March 0.3% 0%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m March 0.3% 0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y March 1.5% 1.8%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 234 245

14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) April 96.9 96.5

14:30 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

Major US stock indices moderately decreased on Wednesday amid uncertainty caused by the growth of geopolitical tensions and the upcoming season of corporate reporting.

Corporate reports for the first quarter are likely to be the next catalyst for the market, as investors focused on the fundamentals of companies, hoping to find justification for high valuation on Wall Street. Large banks unofficially open the reporting season on Thursday. On this day, JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) should disclose their financial results.

In addition, as it became known, import prices fell by 0.2% in March after an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous 3 months. Until the beginning of the decline in March, prices for imported goods grew during the last 12 months, by 4.2% in the period from March 2016 to March 2017. On the contrary, import prices fell by 6.1% compared to the previous 12-month period.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury announced that the annual budget deficit in March remained near a 3-year high, as government spending increased, unlike revenues. State spending in March exceeded revenues by $ 176.2 billion. The budget deficit was $ 68.2 billion more than in March 2016.

Oil futures fell by about 1%, due to ambiguous data from the US Energy Ministry, which reflected a strong fall in oil reserves along with an increase in oil production to a maximum since August 2015. The US Energy Ministry reported that in the week of April 1-7, oil reserves fell by 2.2 million barrels to 533.4 million barrels, remaining near the upper mid-range limit for this time of year. The stock was expected to grow by 0.316 million barrels.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in the red (20 of 30). Caterpillar Inc. shares fell more than others. (CAT, -2.35%). Leader of the growth were shares of NIKE, Inc. (NKE, + 0.98%).

Most sectors of the S & P index showed a negative trend. The sector of industrial goods fell most of all (-1.4%). The leader of growth was the utilities sector (+ 0.5%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.29% 20.592.11 -59.19

Nasdaq -0.52% 5,836.16 -30.61

S & P -0.37% 2,344.98 -8.80

• Expects to see more slack taken out of the labor market, inflation to rise toward 2 pct

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 533.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.0 million barrels last week, but are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels last week but are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 1.2 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels last week.

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Global economic growth is strengthening and becoming more broadly-based than the Bank had expected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although there is still considerable uncertainty about the outlook. In the United States, some temporary factors weighed on economic activity in the first quarter but the drivers of growth remain solid. The US is close to full employment, unlike many other advanced economies, including Canada, where material slack remains. Global financial conditions remain accommodative. The Bank expects global GDP growth to increase from 3 1/4 per cent this year to about 3 1/2 per cent in 2018 and 2019.

In Canada, recent data indicate that economic growth has been faster than was expected in the January MPR. Growth was temporarily boosted by a resumption of spending in the oil and gas sector and the effects of the Canada Child Benefit on consumer spending. Residential investment has also been stronger than expected. Employment data have been robust, although gains in hours worked are still soft. Meanwhile, export growth has been uneven in the face of ongoing competitiveness challenges. Further, despite a recent uptick in sentiment, business investment remains well below what could be expected at this stage in the recovery. Accordingly, while the recent rebound in GDP is encouraging, it is too early to conclude that the economy is on a sustainable growth path.

EURUSD: 1.0500 (EUR 936m) 1.0545-50 (500m) 1.0600-10 (1.01bln) 1.0650-55 (2.2bln) 1.0680-85 (1.2bln) 1.0700-05 (2.05bln)

USDJPY: 109.00-10 (USD 772m) 110.00 (1.6bln)

GBPUSD: 1.2450 (GBP 320m) 1.2480 (402m) 1.2490-1.2500 (575m) 1.2620 (275m)

EURGBP 0.8450 (EUR 325m) 0.8530 (275m) 0.8590-0.8600 (220m)

USDCHF: 0.9925 (USD 200m)

EURJPY: 117.00 (EUR 240m) 117.45 (200m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 420m) 0.7510-15 (AUD 652m) 0.7560-65 (1.24bln) 0.7600-10 (485m) 0.7660-70 (475m)

USDCAD: 1.3400 (USD 390m) 1.3430-35 (420m)

NZDUSD: 0.6930 (270m) 0.7080-90 (504m)

U.S. stock-index were fell slightly little changed on Wednesday as rising geopolitical tensions and the approaching earnings season weighed on investors' risk appetite.

Stocks:

Nikkei 18,552.61 -195.26 -1.04%

Hang Seng 24,313.50 +225.04 +0.93%

Shanghai 3,273.83 -15.14 -0.46%

FTSE 7,355.76 -9.74 -0.13%

CAC5,109.20 +7.34 +0.14%

DAX 12,155.27 +15.92 +0.13%

• Sees significant risks stemming from potential fiscal and income policies changes

• Real mondetary conditions remained accomodating throughout q1

• Overall credit developments were not a source of concern

• Minutes show policymakers unanimously decided to keep interest rates flat at 1.75 percent on april 5

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

U.S. import prices declined 0.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following increases in each of the 3 previous months. The March downturn was driven by lower fuel import prices which more than offset rising nonfuel prices. In contrast, the price index for U.S. exports increased 0.2 percent in March, after advancing 0.3 percent in February.

Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.2 percent in March, continuing an upward trend since the index last fell on a monthly basis in August. Higher prices for agricultural exports and nonagricultural exports each contributed to the advance in March. U.S. export prices also increased over the past year, rising 3.6

percent for the year ended in March. That matched the 12-month advance recorded in December 2011 and was the largest over-the-year increase since the index rose 4.8 percent in November 2011.

Upgrades:

HP (HPQ) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup

Downgrades:

Other:

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0600-05 1.0630 1.0650 1.0670 1.0685 1.0700

Bids: 1.0580 1.0565 1.0550 1.0530 1.0500 1.0485 1.0465 1.0450

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2500-05 1.2520 1.2550-55 1.2580 1.2600 1.2620 1.2650

Bids: 1.2480 1.2465 1.2450 1.2430 1.2400 1.2380-85 1.2350 1.2330 1.2300

EUR/JPY

Offers: 116.80 117.00 117.30 117.50 117.85 118.00

Bids: 116.20 116.00 115.85 115.50 115.20 115.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8520 0.8550-55 0.8580 0.8600

Bids: 0.8485 0.8465 0.8450 0.8430 0.8400

USD/JPY

Offers: 109.80 110.00 110.30 110.50 110.75-80 111.00 111.30 111.50

Bids: 109.30-35 109.00 108.80 108.50 108.30 108.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7520-25 0.7550 0.7565 0.7580 0.7600

Bids: 0.7480-85 0.7465 0.7450 0.7425-30 0.7400

• German economic institutes raise forecast for gdp growth in 2017 to 1.5 pct from 1.4 pct; forecast for 2018 lifted to 1.8 pct from 1.6 pct

EURUSD: 1.0500 (EUR 936m) 1.0545-50 (500m) 1.0600-10 (1.01bln) 1.0650-55 (2.2bln) 1.0680-85 (1.2bln) 1.0700-05 (2.05bln)

USDJPY: 109.00-10 (USD 772m) 110.00 (1.6bln)

GBPUSD: 1.2450 (GBP 320m) 1.2480 (402m) 1.2490-1.2500 (575m) 1.2620 (275m)

EURGBP 0.8450 (EUR 325m) 0.8530 (275m) 0.8590-0.8600 (220m)

USDCHF: 0.9925 (USD 200m)

EURJPY: 117.00 (EUR 240m) 117.45 (200m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 420m) 0.7510-15 (AUD 652m) 0.7560-65 (1.24bln) 0.7600-10 (485m) 0.7660-70 (475m)

USDCAD: 1.3400 (USD 390m) 1.3430-35 (420m)

NZDUSD: 0.6930 (270m) 0.7080-90 (504m)

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.3% including bonuses, and by 2.2% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% including bonuses, and by 0.1% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between September to November 2016 and the three months to February 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell.

There were 31.84 million people in work, 39,000 more than for September to November 2016 and 312,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.6%, the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

There were 1.56 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 45,000 fewer than for September to November 2016 and 141,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate was 4.7%, down from 5.1% for a year earlier. It has not been lower since June to August 1975. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed.

• Lavrov, Tillerson to discuss Ukraine

• U.S position on Syria remains "mistery" to Moscow

• Lavrov, U.S Tillerson to discuss no-fly zones in Syria

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0806 (635)

$1.0771 (1068)

$1.0721 (462)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0614

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0540 (747)

$1.0493 (1717)

$1.0436 (2825)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 52997 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (4750);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 56710 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0400 (5300);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 11

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2806 (1072)

$1.2709 (644)

$1.2612 (381)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2484

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2388 (599)

$1.2291 (668)

$1.2194 (588)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 15830 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1338);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 17639 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3063);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.12 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 11

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Forecasts 2017 public deficit of 2.8 pct of gdp, revised from 2.7 pct previously

• Forecasts 2017 public deficit of 2.8 pct of gdp, revised from 2.7 pct previously

• Forecasts 2018 gdp growth of 1.5 pct, 1.6 pct in 2019 and 1.7 pct in 2020

• Forecasts 2017 gdp growth of 1.5 pct in annual stability programme, unchanged from previous estimate

China's inflation rose marginally on non-food prices in March, while factory gate inflation moderated as commodity prices weakened notably.

Inflation rose to 0.9 percent in March from 0.8 percent in February, data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, cited by rttnews. Nonetheless, this was slightly slower than the expected 1 percent.

The government targets around 3 percent inflation for the whole year of 2017.

Consumer price inflation may regain some ground but should remain below 2 percent, Julian Evans-Pritchard, a China economist at Capital Economics, said. The upshot is that those anticipating a further reflation in China are likely to be disappointed, he added.

Food prices declined 4.4 percent versus a 4.3 percent fall in February. Meanwhile, non-food prices advanced 2.3 percent after rising 2.2 percent.

Month-on-month, consumer prices fell 0.3 percent following a 0.2 percent drop in February.

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the selling prices in wholesale trade increased by 4.7% in March 2017 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In February 2017 and in January 2017 the annual rates of change were +5.0% and +4.0%, respectively.

From February 2017 to March 2017 the index did not change.

European stocks closed mostly lower on Tuesday, with lingering worries about the crisis in Syria and the hotly contested French election creating a cloud over sentiment.

U.S. stocks pared losses to close with small losses Tuesday as investors remained cautious over assets perceived as risky, such as equities, on rising geopolitical tensions. Tuesday's moves come as investors focus on the latest geopolitical developments, as the U.S. has taken a hard line on Syria at a G-7 meeting and North Korea has warned that it is ready for war should U.S. Navy ships advance to the Korean Peninsula.

Gold continued to rise and the yen hit fresh five-month highs against a host of other currencies in early Asian trade on Wednesday as investors continued to move money out of risky assets. Investor worries over Syria and North Korea sent gold and 10-year Treasury yields to their best levels since November overnight.