CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 11-11-2014

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter III +0.6% +0.6%

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter III +2.6% +2.6%

08:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y September +0.7% +0.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y September +0.9% +1.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count October -18.6 -24.9

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate October 2.8%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate September 6.0% 5.9%

10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) September -1.8% +0.6%

10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) September -1.9% -0.4%

10:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter

10:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories September +0.7% +0.3%

16:25 Canada BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri Speaks

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota

21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI October 58.1

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories November -0.6

21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m October -0.8%

21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y October -0.1%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders October +4.7% -1.0%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y October -3.3% -1.3%

Brent oil dropped to a four-year low amid signs the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries isn't prepared to tackle the global supply glut. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped in New York.

Futures fell as much as 1.8 percent in London. The oil market is oversupplied, partly because of rising U.S. output, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said today in Abu Dhabi. OPEC members including Saudi Arabia and Iraq are resisting calls to curb output and instead cut export prices to the U.S., where production is running at the highest level in more than 30 years. The group meets Nov. 27 in Vienna.

"There's uncertainty about OPEC and whether it will or will not cut production at the Nov. 27 meeting," Kyle Cooper, director of commodities research at IAF Advisors in Houston, said by phone. "They probably wouldn't have to do that much to stabilize the market but until some action is taken there's not a lot of upside for this market."

Brent for December settlement fell $1.44, or 1.8 percent, to $80.90 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 11:38 a.m. in New York. That's the lowest level since October 2010. The volume of all futures traded was 14 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.

WTI for December delivery dropped 73 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $76.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Volume was 8.6 lower than the 100-day average. The U.S. benchmark traded at a $4.17 discount to Brent, compared with $4.94 at yesterday's close.

Stock indices closed higher as investors weighed corporate earnings reports.

Investors monitored closely a further escalation of the situation in eastern Ukraine.

Henkel AG shares climbed 4.8% after raising its forecast.

Vodafone Group Plc shares increased 6.1% after reporting the better-than-estimated services revenue in its second accounting quarter.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,627.4 +16.15 +0.24%

DAX 9,369.03 +17.16 +0.18%

CAC 40 4,244.1 +21.28 +0.50%

The price of gold has risen dramatically in the last hour after it was is inactive most of the trades near four-year low amid rising dollar.

Dollar exchange rate rose to a seven-year peak against the yen and rising to a basket of six major currencies. Gold is trying to keep the position after a 3 percent rise in share price on Friday, but yesterday's decline shows that investors are willing to sell after the rally.

"The US is experiencing strong economic growth, which helps to strengthen the dollar and puts pressure on the gold market," - said the director of ETF Securities Australia and New Zealand's Danny Leydler.

The world's largest reserves of the gold-traded exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust on Monday fell by 0.25 percent to 725.36 tons of six-year low. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange traded precious metals on Tuesday at $ 01.02 an ounce more global benchmark, whereas before, the margin reached $ 50.

According to analysts of the hedge fund Red Kite, the price of gold may fall to $ 800-900 per ounce - its lowest level since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. According to analysts and traders polled by Reuters last week, the price could drop to $ 1,000 by the end of the year.

The cost of December gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1160.70 dollars per ounce.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to lower against the most major currencies. The greenback was supported by the demand for the U.S. currency. Investors speculate that the Federal Reserve will hike its interest rate sooner than expected.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports from the Eurozone.

The European Central Bank (ECB) released its interest rate decision last Thursday. The ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged. The ECB President Mario Draghi said that the central will add further unconventional measures stimulus measures, if needed. Investors are sceptical whether the stimulus measures by the ECB will be enough to boost inflation and economy in the Eurozone.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports from the U.K.

The pound fell against the greenback after the weaker-than-expected economic data from the U.K. last week. The Bank of England (BoE) released its interest rate decision last Thursday. The BoE kept its monetary policy unchanged. Investors speculate the central bank could delay its interest rate hike due to recently weaker-than-expected economic data.

The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from Canada. Falling oil prices weighed on the loonie.

The New Zealand dollar increased against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar climbed against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie traded lower against the greenback after the weak economic data from Australia. The National Australia Bank's business confidence index fell to 4 in October from 5 in September.

Australia's house price index was up 1.5% in the third quarter, missing expectations for a 1.6% rise, after a 1.9% increase in the second quarter. The second quarter's figure was revised up from a 1.8% gain.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the yen dropped against the greenback on speculation Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may postpone a planned sales-tax increase.

Japan's adjusted current account surplus widened to ¥414.4 billion in September from ¥130.8 billion in August, beating expectations for a decrease to ¥3.0 billion.

The currency pair USDCAD declines as Canadian dollar recovers its early losses. Falling oil prices weighed on the loonie.

Iraq said on Monday that it will lower oil prices for its US customers. But it raised oil prices for its customers in Asia and Europe.

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed, as investors weighed corporate earnings and equity valuations after benchmarks closed at a fourth straight record.

Global markets:

Nikkei 17,124.11 +343.58 +2.05%

Hang Seng 23,808.28 +63.58 +0.27%

Shanghai Composite 2,470.59 -3.08 -0.12%

FTSE 6,618.27 +7.02 +0.11%

CAC 4,243.66 +20.84 +0.49%

DAX 9,371.68 +19.81 +0.21%

Crude oil $77.53 (+0.14%)

Gold $1153.80 (-0.52%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette

Other:

EUR/USD: $1.2300(E1.7bn), $1.2350(E506mn), $1.2380(E404mn), $1.2400(E1.22bn), $1.2405(E202mn), $1.2425(E287mn), $1.2450(E477mn), $1.2460(E261mn), $1.2500(E2.04bn), $1.2550(E3.37bn)

USD/JPY: Y113.00($867mn), Y113.75($247mn), Y114.30(267mn), Y114.50($220mn), Y115.00($1.45bn), Y115.20($307mn)

GBP/USD: $1.6000(stg268mn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9650($995mn)

EUR/CHF: Chf1.2025(E480mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8500(A$500mn), $0.8600(A$1.02bn), $0.8625 A$201mn), $0.8650(A$1.3bn), $0.8680(A$226mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7600(NZ$334mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1200($340mn), C$1.1305($720mn), C$1.1400($265mn)

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2600, $1.2580, $1.2550, $1.2500

Bids $1.2360/50, $1.2300, $1.2250

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6000, $1.5950/60, $1.5920

Bids $1.5800, $1.5785, $1.5700

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8800, $0.8760, $0.8750, $0.8700

Bids $0.8600, $0.8520, $0.8500, 0.8450

EUR/JPY

Offers Y144.50, Y144.00, Y143.60

Bids Y142.10/00, Y141.55/50, Y141.00, Y140.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y116.50

Bids Y113.85, Y113.00, Y112.60, Y112.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7900, stg0.7885, stg0.7860

Bids stg0.7795, stg0.7755/45, stg0.7700

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y October -2.1% 0.0%

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence October 5 4

00:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter III +1.9% Revised From -1.8% +1.6% +1.5%

00:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) Quarter III +10.1% +9.1%

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence October 39.9 40.6 38.9

06:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current October 47.4 49.2 44.0

06:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook October 48.7 46.6

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y October +34.7% Revised From +34.8% +31.2%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. The greenback was supported by the demand for the U.S. currency. Investors speculate that the Federal Reserve will hike its interest rate sooner than expected.

There will be released no major economic reports in the U.S.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports from the Eurozone.

The European Central Bank (ECB) released its interest rate decision last Thursday. The ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged. The ECB President Mario Draghi said that the central will add further unconventional measures stimulus measures, if needed. Investors are sceptical whether the stimulus measures by the ECB will be enough to boost inflation and economy in the Eurozone.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports from the U.K.

The pound fell against the greenback after the weaker-than-expected economic data from the U.K. last week. The Bank of England (BoE) released its interest rate decision last Thursday. The BoE kept its monetary policy unchanged. Investors speculate the central bank could delay its interest rate hike due to recently weaker-than-expected economic data.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.5873

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y116.11

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report

20:05 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks

23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence November +0.9%

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index September -0.1% +0.9%

European stock indices are trading higher fir a second day in a row amid good corporate earnings. UK's FTSE 100 index is up 0.08% trading at 6,616.60 points. Germany's DAX 30 gained 0.25% at 9,375.53 points and France's CAC 40 is up 18.57 points, a plus of 0.25% currently trading at 4,20.59 points.

Oil prices declined in today's trading. Brent Crude is currently trading -0.69% at USD81.77 - a new four-year low, WTI Crude lost -0.54% and is trading at USD76.89.

A weakening global demand, a stronger U.S. dollar and no indication on the OPEC to cut output in order to support oil prices are weighing on the market. The next meeting of OPEC, whose 12 members supply about 40 percent of the world's oil, oil ministers is scheduled on Vienna on November 27th.

Gold, currently trading at USD1151.00 steadied after Friday's biggest gains in more than a four months period as physical demand is giving support after yesterday's selloff. Speculations on the FED raising interest rates sooner rather than later and a stronger U.S. dollar keep weighing on gold.

GOLD currently trading lower at USD1151.00 after Friday's rally

The euro continues to fall against the U.S. dollar trading at USD1.2405 closer to its 26 month lows of USD1.2358 from last Friday. Weak Italian data further fuelled concerns about Eurozone's economic outlook. Investors are looking forward to U.S. data published at the end of the weak giving indication of the U.S. economies future growth and the FED's possible raise of interest rates.

REUTERS

China deal sends shares to one-month high, ruble surges

World equity markets hit their highest level in more than a month on Monday, lifted by a deal to give global investors easier access to China's $3.9 trillion stock market and more gains in U.S. equities.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0IU01620141110

INVESTING.COM

Brent oil futures sink to 4-year low amid global supply glut

Brent oil futures sank to the lowest level in more than four years on Tuesday, as ongoing concerns over a glut in world markets continued to drive prices lower. Prices recovered to last trade at $82.36 a barrel during European morning hours, down 59 cents, or 0.71%.

Source: http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/brent-oil-futures-sink-to-4-year-low-amid-global-supply-glut-316250

BLOOMBERG

Russia Cash Squeeze Gets First Test Today in Loan Auction

Russian policy makers' latest bid to shore up the nation's currency sounds complex but is actually simple: They will take rubles out of the hands of banks.

Fewer rubles means bankers will have less cash to buy dollars. That in turn will stem the selloff in the ruble. Or so goes the argument. On day one, the plan -- or at least the unveiling of the plan -- worked. The ruble surged 1.7 percent yesterday to 45.8525 per dollar, rebounding from a record low even as policy makers simultaneously took other steps to allow it to trade freely.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-11/russia-cash-squeeze-gets-first-test-today-in-loan-auction.html

The DOW Jones and S&P 500 continued to rise in yesterday's trading session to all-time highs. The DOW Jones was up 39.81 points closing with a plus of 0.23% at 17,613.71, the S&P500 gained +0.31% closing at 2,038.26 points. Biotechnology and the transportation sector were the biggest winners.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.25% closing at 23,803.52, China's Shanghai Composite lost -0.12% closing at 2,470.59.

Japan's Nikkei closed strong with a gain of 2.05% at 17,124.11 hitting a seven-year high and the Japanese yen fell as there are speculations about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe postponing a rise in sales tax and snap elections being held.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y October -2.1% 0.0%

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence October 5 4

00:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter III +1.9% [Revised From -1.8%] +1.6% +1.5%

00:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) Quarter III +10.1% +9.1%

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence October 39.9 40.6 38.9

06:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current October 47.4 49.2 44.0

06:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook October 48.7 46.6

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y October +34.7% [Revised From +34.8%] +31.2% 

The greenback traded stronger against its major peers after Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. job data which led to profit-taking after the U.S. dollar’s rally. Investors are awaiting important data later in the week (retail sales and consumer sentiment) to get further indications on the good economic outlook in the U.S. 

The Australian dollar could not further recover from his four-year low from last Friday and is currently trading negative against the greenback. National Australia Bank's Business Confidence declined from 5 to 4 whereas the House Price Index showed gains of 1.5% giving slight support to the currency.

The Kiwi also lost again against the U.S. dollar. Investors are awaiting Reserve Bank governor Wheeler releasing the bank's half-yearly financial stability report today at 20:00 GMT and his statements over the strength of the currency.

The Japanese yen currently trading at USD115.37 further closes in on its new all time-low of USD115.51 after the BoJ’s economic stimulus from October 31^st and the Nikkei’s rally fuelled by speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe might postpone the planned sales tax increase and call a snap election.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to USD1.2420

USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar traded stronger against the Japanese yen and is currently trading at Y115.43

GPB/USD: the currency pair declined to GPB1.5850

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report

20:05 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks

23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence November +0.9%

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index September 0.1% +0.9%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2584 (3244)

$1.2535 (659)

$1.2502 (194)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2424

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2396 (3888)

$1.2360 (6444)

$1.2308 (4977)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 5 is 95717 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike pric $1,2800 (5232);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 5 is 103638 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (6884);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 7

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6103 (902)

$1.6006 (1900)

$1.5909 (383)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5843

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5791 (879)

$1.5694 (1104)

$1.5596 (811)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 5 is 33837 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6000 (1900);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 5 is 35856 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6000 (2082);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.22 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.