CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 16-08-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 46.77 -0.02%

Gold 1,288.80 +0.46%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -24.03 19729.28 -0.12%

TOPIX -0.21 1616.00 -0.01%

Hang Seng +234.11 27409.07 +0.86%

CSI 300 -4.64 3701.42 -0.13%

Euro Stoxx 50 +22.66 3484.57 +0.65%

FTSE 100 +49.18 7433.03 +0.67%

DAX +86.82 12263.86 +0.71%

CAC 40 +36.36 5176.61 +0.71%

DJIA +25.88 22024.87 +0.12%

S&P 500 +3.50 2468.11 +0.14%

NASDAQ +12.10 6345.11 +0.19%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1770 +0,31%

GBP/USD $1,2887 +0,14%

USD/CHF Chf0,9652 -0,70%

USD/JPY Y110,11 -0,42%

EUR/JPY Y129,61 -0,11%

GBP/JPY Y141,91 -0,27%

AUD/USD $0,7928 +1,35%

NZD/USD $0,7311 +1,00%

USD/CAD C$1,2616 -1,08%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate July 5.6% 5.6%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed July 14.0 20

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) July 0.6% 0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) July 2.9% 1.4%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Finally) July 1.1% 1.2%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI July 0% -0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) July 1.3% 1.3%

09:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted June 21.4 22.9

11:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) June 1.1% -1%

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1951 1953

12:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey August 19.5 18.5

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 244 240

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization July 76.6% 76.7%

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY July 2%

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) July 0.4% 0.3%

14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators July 0.6% 0.3%

16:30 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

The main US stock indexes rose slightly, as the drop in quotations of the sector of conglomerates and the sector of basic materials was offset by an increase in other sectors. Investors also analyzed data on the US housing market, and played out the details of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed.

As it became known, in July permits for construction and bookings of new houses decreased, but the construction of new houses continues to grow slowly and steadily, supporting a gradually improving housing market. The Ministry of Trade reported that the bookmarks for new houses were 1.16 million in July, taking into account seasonal fluctuations. This is 4.8% lower than in June, and 5.6% lower than a year ago. The result also gave way to a consensus forecast of 1.22 million units.

Meanwhile, the minutes of the Fed meeting indicated that the leaders' opinions regarding the time of the next rate increase were divided, as they were at a loss to determine the cause of weak inflation. However, they agreed to soon begin to reduce the balance of the Fed. "The slowdown in inflation has prompted some executives to suggest for the time being to refrain from further raising rates, as the Fed can afford to be patient in the current environment," the protocol said. In general, disagreements among Fed leaders made market participants question the possibility of a third Fed rate hike this year Now the Fed rate futures tracked by the CME Group indicate that investors estimate the probability of another rate increase this year at 42.0% compared to 49.3% before the release of the minutes of the FR meeting FROM.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in positive territory (18 out of 30). The leader of growth was shares United Technologies Corporation (UTX, + 1.70%). Outsider were shares of Chevron Corporation (CVX, -1.69%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index recorded an increase. The technological sector grew most (+ 0.4%). The greatest decrease was shown by the sector of conglomerates (-0.3%).

At closing:

DJIA +0.12% 22,024.87 +25.88

Nasdaq +0.19% 6,345.11 +12.10

S&P +0.14% 2,468.11 +3.50

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 8.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 466.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories remained unchanged last week, and are near the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.3 million barrels last week.

EURUSD: 1.1600 (EUR 1.25 млрд) 1.1750-60 (660 млн)

USDJPY: 109.00 (USD 350 млн) 109.90 (805 млн) 110.45-50 (825 млн) 111.50-55 (825 млн)

AUDUSD: 0.7825-30 (AUD 2.23 млрд) 0.7850 (910 млн)

U.S. stock-index futures advanced on Wednesday, as investors awaited the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting, expecting signals about the pace of future rate increases and the Fed's assessments of the U.S. inflation outlook

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,753.31 +216.21 +1.11%

Nikkei 19,729.28 -24.03 -0.12%

Hang Seng 27,409.07 +234.11 +0.86%

Shanghai 3,246.62 -4.64 -0.14%

S&P/ASX 5,785.10 +27.62 +0.48%

FTSE 7,426.66 +42.81 +0.58%

CAC 5,188.04 +47.79 +0.93%

DAX 12,274.89 +97.85 +0.80%

Crude $47.59 (+0.08%)

Crude $1,278.00 (-0.13%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Amazon (AMZN) initiated with Buy rating at SunTrust

Facebook (FB) initiated with Buy rating at SunTrust

Alphabet (GOOG) initiated with Buy rating at SunTrust

Twitter (TWTR) initiated with Hold rating at SunTrust

Home Depot (HD) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James

Foreign investors reduced their holdings of Canadian securities by $923 million in June, the first monthly divestment since July 2015. At the same time, Canadian investment in foreign securities amounted to $13.2 billion, led by acquisitions of equities.

As a result, Canada's international transactions in securities generated a net outflow of funds from the economy of $14.1 billion in June. Despite the net outflow, there was an overall net inflow of funds of $31.6 billion in the second quarter, led by significant foreign acquisitions of Canadian bonds in April and May.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,223,000. This is 4.1 percent (±0.9 percent) below the revised June rate of 1,275,000, but is 4.1 percent (±1.8 percent) above the July 2016 rate of 1,175,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 811,000; this is unchanged from the revised June figure of 811,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 377,000 in July.

Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,155,000. This is 4.8 percent (±10.2 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,213,000 and is 5.6 percent (±8.5 percent) below the July 2016 rate of 1,223,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 856,000; this is 0.5 percent (±8.5 percent) below the revised June figure of 860,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 287,000.

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.6% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the second quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2017, GDP grew by 0.5% in both zones.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.3% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2017, after +1.9% and +2.1% respectively in the previous quarter. During the second quarter of 2017, GDP in the United States increased by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.3% in the first quarter of 2017). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 2.1% (after +2.0% in the previous quarter).

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.1%, both including and excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Average weekly earnings in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.5%, both including and excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between January to March 2017 and April to June 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell.

There were 32.07 million people in work, 125,000 more than for January to March 2017 and 338,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.1%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971.

There were 883,000 people (not seasonally adjusted) in employment on "zero-hours contracts" in their main job, 20,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.4%, down from 4.9% for a year earlier and the lowest since 1975.

EURUSD: 1.1600 (EUR 1.25bln) 1.1750-60 (660m)

USDJPY: 109.00 (USD 350m) 109.90 (805m) 110.45-50 (825m) 111.50-55 (825m)

AUDUSD: 0.7825-30 (AUD 2.23bln) 0.7850 (910m)

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1855 (1848)

$1.1832 (2445)

$1.1798 (2025)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1734

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1673 (2480)

$1.1650 (3172)

$1.1622 (3413)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 126150 contracts (according to data from August, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (5103);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3047 (3124)

$1.2985 (982)

$1.2941 (284)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2859

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2814 (2203)

$1.2792 (2056)

$1.2766 (2673)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 8 is 31068 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3124);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 26786 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2850 (2673);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.86 versus 0.85 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 15

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2017. This continues the subdued rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last two years.

The Private sector rose 0.4% and the Public sector rose 0.6%, seasonally adjusted.

The rises in indexes at the industry level (in original terms) ranged from 0.0% for Accommodation and food services to 0.8% for Mining.

Annual change (jun qtr 2016 to jun qtr 2017)

The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 1.9% through the year to the June quarter 2017. This historically low level of growth for both series has been recorded for the last four quarters.

Rises in the original indexes through the year to the June quarter 2017 at the industry level ranged from 1.1% for Mining to 2.6% for Health care and social assistance.

Asian equity markets lacked direction Wednesday following a rebound earlier in the week, tracking a muted performance overnight on Wall Street. The Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -0.18% was down 0.5% as trading kicked off, with large caps succumbing to selling pressure following recent strength. Stocks were higher in Hong Kong though, with the Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.57% up 0.5%.

European stocks continued to rise on Tuesday, with investors encouraged by North Korea's decision not to follow through with its threat to attack U.S. island territory Guam following a war of words between the two nations. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.09% advanced 0.1% to close at 376.50, adding to a 1.1% jump from Monday.

The Dow industrials managed to eke out a third day of gains, but overall the main benchmarks ended little changed amid better-then-expected retail sales data and an abatement of tensions between the U.S. and North Korea. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.02% finished up 5.28 points, or less than 0.1%, at 21,998.99, following a gain of up to 45 points earlier, with shares of Home Depot Inc. HD, -2.65% and Nike Inc. NKE, -2.04% representing the largest decliners, while American Express Co. AXP, +1.54% and Apple Inc. AAPL, +1.09% were the biggest gainers.