CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 19-11-2012

The euro rose against the dollar after it was reported that Greece will receive its next tranche of financial aid is December 5. The decision was taken today at a meeting of eurozone finance, which was held in Paris, and whose purpose was to develop a common position on salvation. Note also that the ministers will meet tomorrow in Brussels, where they will give a preliminary approval for the allocation of 44 billion euros ($ 56 billion).

The dollar fell against all 16 major counterparts as speculation that U.S. lawmakers will reach an agreement on the budget of the country and to prevent the so-called "financial failure" caused a decline in demand for safe assets.

Canadian and Australian dollars rose against the U.S. dollar, as the International Monetary Fund said it is considering to include the Australian and Canadian dollar in the official report on foreign currency reserves.

The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partner, fell by 0.5% to 80.870 after reaching 81.455 on November 16, which is the highest since September 5. Also, the dollar's decline was due to the withdrawing of data, which showed that sales in the secondary market rose in October, indicating that the success of the real estate market is currently supported by cheap borrowing costs.

Japan's currency fell against all but three of the major currencies, after Kyodo News reported that the LDPR leader Shinzo Abe to choose the head of the Bank of Japan who advocate of the inflation target. Note that the Bank of Japan ended its two-day meeting tomorrow.

European (SXXP) stocks climbed the most in more than two months as U.S. President Barack Obama expressed confidence that he will strike a deal with Congress on a new budget to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.

HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) added 3.8 percent after the bank said it has held talks to sell its $9 billion stake in Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. BP Plc (BP/) gained 3.6 percent following a report that the oil company plans a 3.7 billion-pound ($5.9 billion) buyback. ING Groep NV (INGA) advanced 3.7 percent after the European Commission granted it more time to sell its insurance operations in the region.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 2.2 percent to 268.58 at the close, rebounding from its lowest level since Aug. 3, as the Republican U.S. House Speaker John Boehner said after the close of European trading last week that he has held constructive budget talks with Obama.

The Stoxx 600 dropped 2.7 percent last week to its lowest level since Aug. 2 as concern mounted that U.S. lawmakers would fail to agree on a new budget. The gauge has lost 2.2 percent since the re-election of Obama on Nov. 6 set up a showdown with the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

A U.S. report showed that sales of previously owned houses climbed to 4.79 million in October, near a two-year high.

National benchmark indexes climbed in every western- European market, except Iceland.

FTSE 100 5,737.66 +132.07 +2.36% CAC 40 3,439.58 +98.06 +2.93% DAX 7,123.84 +173.31 +2.49%

SAS AB (SAS) soared 23 percent to 6.90 kronor after SAS Group won the backing of all eight of the unions that represent its employees to cut jobs and shrink the business. Scandinavia’s biggest airline seeks to extend credit lines and cut costs by 6 billion kronor ($891 million).

Barclays Plc (BARC) climbed 6.6 percent to 249.8 pence after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its recommendation for the shares to buy from neutral before the U.K.’s second-largest lender reveals details of its strategic review in February.

Hochtief AG jumped 5.1 percent to 37.82 euros, snapping a seven-day retreat, after the German builder announced the possible withdrawal of its chief executive officer, Frank Stieler, from the executive board.

Ocado Group Plc (OCDO) surged 24 percent to 75 pence after the British online grocer extended a 100 million-pound credit line, the biggest of the company’s debts, by 18 months until July 2015. The retailer also said it will raise 35.8 million pounds through a sale of shares to existing investors at 64 pence apiece, ending doubts over the company’s immediate survival.

Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) surged 9 percent to 2.30 euros after the company said it received reports that its new Lumia 920 smartphone had sold out in many shops in Germany. Nokia started selling the device, which uses Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Phone 8 operating system, earlier this month.

Fugro NV (FUR) sank 14 percent to 42.14 euros, its biggest drop in four years, after the Dutch oil-services company lowered its forecast for full-year profit to 280 million euros ($359 million). It cited low seismic-vessel utilization and a writedown at its subsea business. The shares also fell after the company’s chief executive officer, Arnold Steenbakker, resigned because of a “difference of opinion” over the future direction of the company, according to a statement.

Oil prices rose to their highest level in nearly two weeks on fears that the tense situation in the Middle East could disrupt supplies. Also, market participants are watching the situation of reducing spending and raising taxes, and which is known as a "financial cliff."

Prices began to rise after the Israeli ground forces began preparing for the invasion of the Gaza Strip for the first time in nearly four years, if efforts to stop the fire will not succeed.

Also yesterday, U.S. President Barack Obama said he is "confident" in reaching an agreement to avoid the so-called "financial failure."

Economists note that increased tension in the Middle East almost always leads to higher prices for crude oil. At the same time, world leaders, including Obama, have called for an end to the conflict before it escalates further. Note that the attack threatens further instability in the Middle East and North Africa, which, according to data mined in 2011, more than 35% of total world production.

Also, the increase in oil prices affected the published data on the U.S., which showed that sales in the secondary market rose in October by 2.1%, or to the level of 4.79 million units on an annualized basis.

January futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 89.05 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

January futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose $2,12 to 112.21 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices today rose by one percent, while offsetting losses last week, which was due to an increase in risk appetite, as the dollar fell. Also affects the price of the precious metal in the Middle East, and the outcome of negotiations to settle the inevitable financial crisis in the United States.

The dollar index fell from a two-month high, while making products that are priced in dollars more affordable for buyers.

World stock markets and commodity markets rose today, recovering some of its sharp losses last week, as there were signs of progress in the negotiations for "fiscal cliff." However, some analysts say that the rise in prices has affected the situation in the Gaza Strip.

Now the attention of the gold market is largely concentrated in the negotiations on the budget between U.S. President Barack Obama and congressional leaders.

Note that in the case of unsuccessful negotiations gold will be the "safe haven" for investors, while success in the prevention of financial distress may reduce the attractiveness of gold.

Also, the data showed that the largest reserves of gold in exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust GLD rose by 0.22% on Friday from Thursday. At the same time, it became known that the speculators in the United States have reduced their number of "long position" in gold for the week ended Nov. 13, the lowest level in about three months.

December futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1733.40 dollars per ounce.

Pair rose after better-than-expected U.S. data on Existing Home Sales and NAHB Housing Market Index. Pair is testing the 1.2800 resistance, to overcome which will further increase to 1.2880

U.S. stock futures advanced as President Barack Obama expressed confidence that he will reach a budget agreement with Congress.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  9,153.2 +129.04 +1.43%
Hang Seng 21,262.06 +103.05 +0.49%
Shanghai Composite 2,016.98 +2.26 +0.11%
FTSE  5,688.52 +82.93 +1.48%
CAC  3,404.85 +63.33 +1.90%
DAX 7,078.1 +127.57 +1.84%
Crude oil $88.37 +1.67%
Gold $1730.00 +0.89%

Apple (AAPL) was reiterated a Buy at BAML, but with a lower price target - now $780, from $840. The analysts lower their expected 2013 EPS to $52.45 from $54.30, 2014 to $62.50 from $64.
Bank of America (BAC) was upgraded from Hold to Buy by Stifel Nicolaus, target $11.

Sold E6.983bln vs target E5.8bln-E7.0bln

- E3.997bln 3-month BTF, avg yield -0.016% (-0.014%), cover 2.59 (2.77)

- E1.391bln 6-month BTF, avg yield -0.009% (-0.002%), cover 4.76 (3.1)

- E1.595bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.026% (0.019%), cover 4.03 (3.64)

EUR/USD $1.2720, $1.2750

USD/JPY Y80.75, Y80.90, Y81.00, Y81.25

GBP/USD $1.5900

AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0375, $1.0385, $1.0420

EUR/GBP stg0.8000, stg0.8010, stg0.8020

EUR/CHF Chf1.2075

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) November +3.5% -2.6%

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) November +1.5% +2.0%

08:30 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks -

The dollar fell against the euro, extending last week’s decline, as speculation U.S lawmakers will reach agreement on the nation’s budget and avert the so-called fiscal cliff damped demand for safety.

The Dollar Index (DXY) fell from near a 10-week high after President Barack Obama said he was “confident” that an agreement would be reached over the triggering of automatic spending cuts and tax increases at year-end that may push the economy into recession.

The yen rose from the lowest level in almost seven months versus the U.S currency. Japan’s currency dropped against all but three of its major peers after Kyodo News reported Liberal Democratic Party leader Shinzo Abe will choose someone who favors inflation targets as the next Bank of Japan governor. The BOJ will end a two-day policy meeting tomorrow.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed as gains in Asian and European equities boosted demand for higher-yielding assets.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2850, $1.2805/10 

Bids  $1.2720, $1.2705/00, $1.2680

Resistance levels at 0.8185, 0.8220 and 0.8255, and support - at 0.8100, 0.8080 and 0.8040.

European stocks climbed, rebounding from a three-month low, as U.S. President Barack Obama expressed confidence that he will strike a deal with Congress on a new budget.

Before Obama left for Asia, he met with senior Democrats and Republicans for talks to avoid a $607 billion-package of automatic tax increases and spending cuts that if allowed to come into force would push the country into a recession next year. Congress returns from its Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 26.

HSBC Holdings Plc added 1.8 percent after Europe’s largest lender by market value said it has held talks to sell its stake in Ping An Insurance (Group) Co.

BP Plc gained 2.8 percent following a report that the oil company plans a 3.7 billion- pound ($5.9 billion) buyback.

FTSE 100 5,662.23 +56.64 +1.01%

CAC 40 3,386.84 +45.32 +1.36%

DAX 7,043.91 +93.38 +1.34%

Asian stocks gained for a second day, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest advance in a month, after President Barack Obama expressed confidence that he and Congress will reach a budget agreement.

Nikkei 225 9,153.2 +129.04 +1.43%

S&P/ASX 200 4,361.45 +24.60 +0.57%

Shanghai Composite 2,016.98 +2.26 +0.11%

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker, rose 1.4 percent in Tokyo.

Japan Tobacco Inc. jumped 6.5 percent as the government plans to postpone the sale of its stake in the cigarette maker.

•  

  bank supervisn voting shld be based on capital shares

   

• separate ecb bank sup'n frm mon pol doable,difficult

• eu joint deposit guarantee rightly moved to backgrnd

• need sufficient bank-sponsored resolution fund

• liabilities,control in bank union must be in balance

•  

  bank supervisn voting shld be based on capital shares

   

• separate ecb bank sup'n frm mon pol doable,difficult

• eu joint deposit guarantee rightly moved to backgrnd

• need sufficient bank-sponsored resolution fund

• liabilities,control in bank union must be in balance

The dollar rose for the first time in three days against the euro because of the departure of investors in asset-seekers awaiting the outcome of talks between President Barack Obama and U.S. lawmakers on fiscal cliff.

The leaders of the U.S. Congress, leaving the White House after the completion of negotiations on the issue of the fiscal cliff, said that the discussion was "constructive" and laid the foundation for further progress.

The dollar index extended its fourth weekly gain as between Israel and the Hamas military conflict erupted. Israel expanded its bombing of the Gaza Strip and Palestinian rockets hit areas around Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. The Israeli army said it has deployed tanks near the Gaza border, and called up reservists.

The yen strengthened against most of its 16 major counterparts on speculation that the decline this week was too fast. Recall that the yen fell on Thursday, when the leader LDPYA Shinzo Abe, who is likely to become the next prime minister of Japan, continued to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to a more aggressive easing of monetary policy. Later, the Japanese yen has lost previously won positions after the elections in Japan were scheduled for December.

The euro traded little changed against the Swiss franc at 1.2049 francs after the head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the franc is highly inflated and harm the Swiss economy.

Asian equities rose, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average surging the most since March, amid speculation an election next month will hand power to an opposition party that advocates more aggressive monetary easing in the world’s third-biggest economy.

Nikkei 225 9,024.16 +194.44 +2.20%

S&P/ASX 200 4,336.85 -12.40 -0.29%

Shanghai Composite 2,014.72 -15.57 -0.77%

Honda Motor Co., Japan’s third-largest carmaker, advanced 5.2 percent as the yen weakened, boosting the earnings outlook for the exporter.

Buru Energy Ltd. jumped 8.5 percent in Sydney after the oil and gas explorer said drilling results at its Ungani well are encourag

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) November +3.5% -2.6%

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) November +1.5% +2.0%

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) November +3.5% -2.6%

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) November +1.5% +2.0%

08:30 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks -

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales October 4.75 4.76

15:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index November 41 41