CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 16-11-2012

The dollar rose for the first time in three days against the euro because of the departure of investors in asset-seekers awaiting the outcome of talks between President Barack Obama and U.S. lawmakers on fiscal cliff.

The leaders of the U.S. Congress, leaving the White House after the completion of negotiations on the issue of the fiscal cliff, said that the discussion was "constructive" and laid the foundation for further progress.

The dollar index extended its fourth weekly gain as between Israel and the Hamas military conflict erupted. Israel expanded its bombing of the Gaza Strip and Palestinian rockets hit areas around Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. The Israeli army said it has deployed tanks near the Gaza border, and called up reservists.

The yen strengthened against most of its 16 major counterparts on speculation that the decline this week was too fast. Recall that the yen fell on Thursday, when the leader LDPYA Shinzo Abe, who is likely to become the next prime minister of Japan, continued to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to a more aggressive easing of monetary policy.

Later, the Japanese yen has lost previously won positions after the elections in Japan were scheduled for December.

The euro traded little changed against the Swiss franc at 1.2049 francs after the head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the franc is highly inflated and harm the Swiss economy.

European stocks posted their biggest weekly drop since June amid concern President Barack Obama and Congress will fail to agree on a new budget, triggering $607 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

Obama began negotiations with Democrat and Republican congressional leaders today. The president said at a press conference on Nov. 12 that Bush-era tax cuts for high earners should expire at the start of 2013. House Speaker John Boehner’s colleagues refuse to raise tax rates.

A report from the EU’s statistics office on Nov. 15 showed the euro area slipped back into a recession in the third quarter as governments imposed tougher austerity measures to narrow their fiscal deficits. Gross domestic product slipped 0.1 percent, its second consecutive quarter of contraction.

Separate releases showed that industrial production in the currency zone dropped the most since 2009 in September, Greece’s economy contracted for a 17th straight quarter and jobless claims rose at the fastest pace in more than a year in the U.K.

National benchmark indexes fell in every western-European market except Greece and Iceland. France’s CAC 40 lost 2.4 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slid 2.8 percent and Germany’s DAX declined 3 percent. Spain’s IBEX 35 Index slipped 0.6 percent amid speculation the country will soon request a bailout from the European Union.

Vodafone slid 5.9 percent after the telecommunications operator also reported a 1.4 percent decline in service revenue in the second quarter, its first drop in 10 quarters.

Zurich Insurance Group AG lost 5.2 percent after Switzerland’s biggest insurer reported on Nov. 15 a 62 percent drop in third-quarter profit following a $550 million writedown. Net income missed analysts’ estimates.

Hennes & Mauritz AB retreated 4.7 percent after Europe’s second-largest clothing retailer said on Nov. 15 that sales at stores open a year or more slid 5 percent last month, missing some analysts’ estimates.

Oil rose on concern that the clash between Israel and Hamas will escalate into a wider conflict that would endanger Middle East crude shipments.

Futures advanced as much as 1.8 percent as Israel extended its bombing of Gaza and Palestinian missiles struck areas around Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandil visited Gaza today and called for an international effort to end the violence. Israel’s army said it has deployed tanks near the Gaza border and called up reservists.

Air-raid sirens sounded in both Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. At least one rocket landed south of Jerusalem in the Gush Etzion region of the West Bank, where Jewish settlements are located, hitting an “open area” with no casualties or damage reported, Micky Rosenfeld, an Israeli police spokesman, said by phone. A blast was heard in Tel Aviv at about 1:30 p.m. and air-raid warnings sounded around the same time.

Israel said yesterday it’s ready to step up its operation if rocket fire continues, signaling the possibility of the first ground assault on Gaza since December 2008, when more than 1,100 Palestinians and 12 Israelis dead.

Palestinians are “fully entitled” to defend themselves against “any forms of Israeli aggression,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in an interview with Russian state broadcaster RT.

Hamas, the Islamic group that controls the Gaza Strip, is fighting for a “just cause,” Iran’s Araqchi was cited as saying in an interview by RT, according to a transcript of his comments translated into Russian and e-mailed today.

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa accounted for 36 percent of global oil production and held 52 percent of proved reserves in 2011, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy.

Crude oil for December delivery, which expires today, rose to $87.00 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent oil for January settlement increased 51 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $108.52 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, boosted by disruptions in the North Sea. Statoil ASA (STL), Norway’s largest energy company, said its Troll C field will remain shut after it found corrosion on two tanks in separate gas-treatment systems, cutting the country’s crude output by close to 10 percent.

The price of gold down amid falling stocks and of the dollar, as investors prefer the U.S. dollar, which is considered a safe haven, after militants from the Hamas sent rockets into strontium Jerusalem. Geopolitics roost trading recently. The shelling of the city's historic raised fears of war in the region.

After the news about the launch of missiles in the direction of Jerusalem, the dollar began to show large-scale growth, including against major currencies such as the euro and the yen. The Dollar Index Wall Street Journal, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, hit a new two-month high 71.139, rose by 0.39% compared with Thursday's closing.

In addition, the increased risk aversion pessimistic statements of the former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan about the catastrophic consequences for the markets, if the U.S. government can not solve the problem of the fiscal cliff.

Another factor of pressure were comments from ECB Noyer K. that the question of Greece needs more time or money at the discretion of the government and the IMF.

December futures price of gold on COMEX today fell to 1705.60 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stock futures were little changed as President Barack Obama prepared to hold talks with Republican lawmakers on the fiscal cliff.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  9,024.16 +194.44 +2.20%
Hang Seng 21,159.01 +50.08 +0.24%
Shanghai Composite 2,014.72 -15.57 -0.77%
FTSE  5,652.65 -25.10 -0.44%
CAC  3,381.62 -0.78 -0.02%
DAX 7,023.47 -19.95 -0.28%
Crude oil $86.41 +1.12%
Gold $1712.20 -0.09%

EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850

GBP/USD $1.5900

AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0400

USD/JPY Y80.50, Y81.00, Y81.25, Y81.50

EUR/GBP stg0.8000, stg0.8020

NZD/USD Nz$0.8225

Data

09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln September 10.9 9.2 0.8

09:45 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks -

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. September 8.9 10.6 11.3

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2850, $1.2805/10, $1.2760/65

Bids $1.2720/15, $1.2705/00, $1.2680, $1.2655/50 

In the red zone opened trading in Europe. Adversely affect investors' expectations for U.S. actions. Barack Obama and the Congress should discuss ways out of the situation, when the country's growing unemployment and government debt.

French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Eyro during his visit to Berlin, held on Thursday, November 15, a number of important meetings, including Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel) and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (Wolfgang Schuble). The talks are the joint action to resolve the crisis in the euro area and the steps the French government to improve the economic situation in France.

Based on macroeconomic data in the euro area had a recession. In the period from July to September this year, the combined GDP of 17 countries in the euro area declined by 0.1 percent compared to the previous quarter.

FTSE 100 5,638.26 -39.49 -0.70%

CAC 40 3,363.54 -18.86 -0.56%

DAX 6,986.71 -56.71 -0.81%

STMicroelectronics shares were down 1.7%. Henkel securities dropped in value by 3.9%. Himkontsern recorded sales growth in the third quarter at 2.5%, while analysts had expected the index by 3.4%.

EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850

GBP/USD $1.5900

AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0400

USD/JPY Y80.50, Y81.00, Y81.25, Y81.50

EUR/GBP stg0.8000, stg0.8020

NZD/USD Nz$0.8225

Asian equities rose, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average surging the most since March, amid speculation an election next month will hand power to an opposition party that advocates more aggressive monetary easing in the world’s third-biggest economy.

Nikkei 225 9,024.16 +194.44 +2.20%

S&P/ASX 200 4,336.85 -12.40 -0.29%

Shanghai Composite 2,014.72 -15.57 -0.77%

Honda Motor Co., Japan’s third-largest carmaker, advanced 5.2 percent as the yen weakened, boosting the earnings outlook for the exporter.

The yen slumped to the lowest in more than six months against the dollar on speculation Japanese elections next month will hand power to an opposition party that advocates more aggressive monetary easing.

Japan’s currency weakened against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts on speculation the vote will favor Shinzo Abe, who called for the central bank to provide unlimited stimulus.

The dollar declined against the euro as U.S. jobless claims rose and a regional manufacturing index decreased amid the devastation left by Hurricane Sandy. The dollar weakened as applications for jobless benefits surged by 78,000 to 439,000 in the week ended Nov. 10, the most since April 2011, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Several states said the increase was due to the storm that hit the Northeastern part of the U.S. in late October.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index decreased to minus 10.7 in November from 5.7 a month earlier. A reading of zero is the dividing line between expansion and contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware, which was hard hit by Sandy. A separate report showed the consumer-price index rose 0.1 percent, matching the median estimate of 83 economists, following a 0.6 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department reported in Washington.

In the euro area, data showed the economy slipped into a recession for the second time in four years. Gross domestic product in the region slipped 0.1 percent in the third quarter after a 0.2 percent decline in the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. From the year-earlier period, GDP dropped 0.6 percent.

The pound fell to a 10-week low versus the dollar as data showed U.K. retail sales slid. Britain’s pound fell for a second day against the euro after data showed retail sales including fuel dropped 0.8 percent in October from September, when they gained a revised 0.5 percent. The median forecast was for a 0.1 percent decline.

Asian stocks outside Japan slid toward a two-month low amid concern a budget standoff in the U.S. may curb global growth. Japanese shares gained on speculation a change of government may result in more action to stimulate the economy.

Nikkei 225 8,829.72 +164.99 +1.90%

S&P/ASX 200 4,349.25 -39.12 -0.89%

Shanghai Composite 2,030.29 -25.13 -1.22%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, fell 1.8 percent in Sydney, declining for a sixth day in its longest losing streak since July.

Tencent Holdings Ltd., China’s biggest Internet company, dropped 7 percent in Hong Kong after earnings missed estimates.

Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp. surged 4.8 percent in Tokyo.

The yen headed for its biggest weekly drop in almost five months on speculation Japan’s opposition party will take power after elections next month and increase pressure on the central bank to expand monetary easing.

The yen held yesterday’s steepest slide in two months versus the euro before Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda dissolves parliament today. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda will dissolve parliament today, triggering an election on Dec. 16 that polls suggest his ruling Democratic Party of Japan will lose. Shinzo Abe, the leader of the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, said yesterday the BOJ should pursue unlimited monetary stimulus to end deflation and revive the economy. Japan’s government today downgraded its view of the economy for a fourth month, the longest streak since the global financial crisis. Gross domestic product shrank last quarter at the fastest pace since 2011’s record earthquake.

The dollar headed for a five-day decline against the 17-nation currency before data forecast to show U.S. industrial production growth slowed, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to continue stimulus measures. In the U.S., output at factories, mines and utilities probably rose 0.2 percent in October, after gaining 0.4 percent in the prior month, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg poll before the data release today. Reports due on Nov. 20 are expected to show existing-home sales, housing starts and residential permits all declined in October.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday the U.S. central bank will take action to speed growth and a rebound in the nation’s housing market.

Singapore’s dollar fell after the government said growth this year will be at the lower end of its previous forecast.

Change % Change Last

Oil $85.54 +0.09 +0.11%

Gold $1,714.70 +0.90 +0.05%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,829.72 +164.99 +1.90%

S&P/ASX 200 4,349.25 -39.12 -0.89%

Shanghai Composite 2,030.29 -25.13 -1.22%

FTSE 100 5,677.75 -44.26 -0.77%

CAC 40 3,382.4 -17.62 -0.52%

DAX 7,043.42 -58.50 -0.82%

Dow 12,542.38 -28.57 -0.23%

Nasdaq 2,836.94 -9.87 -0.35%

S&P 500 1,353.33 -2.16 -0.16% 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2780 +0,35%

GBP/USD $1,5859 +0,13%

USD/CHF Chf0,9419 -0,31%

USD/JPY Y81,15 +1,13%

EUR/JPY Y103,72 +1,47%

GBP/JPY Y128,72 +1,27%

AUD/USD $1,0330 -0,44%

NZD/USD $0,8091 -0,12%

USD/CAD C$1,0008 -0,31%

09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln September 8.8 9.2

09:45 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks -

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. September 9.9 10.6

13:30 Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities September 6.90 7.45

14:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows September 90.0 75.0

14:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows September 91.4

14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) September +0.4% +0.3%

14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization September 78.3% 78.4%