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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 14-11-2012
The yen fell the most in eight months against the dollar after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he will dissolve parliament, paving the way for elections that polls show his Democratic Party of Japan will lose. Japan’s currency weakened versus most of its major peers amid speculation the opposition will win power and pressure the central bank into a more aggressive easing policy.
The dollar dropped versus the euro after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said she supports tying a low interest-rate outlook to economic goals and U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in four months.
Yellen joined three other Fed officials who have endorsed tying zero interest rates with progress on fighting unemployment as a way to provide more clarity on the central bank’s outlook for monetary policy. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which said last month it expects to keep its benchmark rate near zero through at least mid-2015, releases minutes from its October meeting today.
Retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.3 percent in October, following a 1.3 percent increase in September that was larger than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists called for a drop of 0.2 percent.
The pound fell after the Bank of England lowered its growth forecasts. “The weaker gross domestic product profile reflects the judgment that the broader causes and repercussions of the financial crisis may bear down more forcefully on demand and productivity than assumed” previously, the central bank said in its quarterly Inflation Report published in London today. “There seems a greater risk that the U.K. economy may be in a period of persistent low growth.”
Both parties can work together to solve the problem of budget break
European stocks fell to a two-month low as industrial production dropped the most in at least three years.
Euro-area industrial production dropped the most in more than three years in September, led by double-digit declines in Portugal and Ireland. Output fell 2.5 percent from August, when it increased 0.9 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The median economist estimate was for a drop of 2 percent.
In the U.K., jobless claims rose at the fastest pace in more than a year, increasing by 10,100 to 1.58 million in October. The median economist estimate was for no change.
Europe’s budget enforcers proposed easing the pressure on Spain to cut the deficit, backing further away from the austerity-first mantra that has dominated the response to the sovereign-debt crisis.
The European Commission said Spain doesn’t need to compound the budget-cutting pain in 2012 or 2013 and indicated the country would be eligible for a credit line to shore up its public balance sheet.
National benchmark indexes declined in 14 of the 18 western-European markets today. France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.9 percent, Germany’s DAX lost 0.9 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 1.1 percent.
ICAP tumbled 9.2 percent to 281.4 pence after the company reported a 26 percent decline in fiscal first-half pretax profit to 137 million pounds ($217 million) as the sovereign-debt crisis hurt trading. The company also said full-year profit would be at the “low end” of the 300 million-pound to 332 million-pound range forecast by analysts.
Monti Paschi fell 5.1 percent to 20.1 euro cents after Italy’s third-biggest bank unexpectedly reported a third-quarter loss of 47.4 million euros as provisions for bad loans almost doubled. The average analyst estimate was for net income of 103.4 million euros.
Vivendi SA jumped 4.7 percent to 15.69 euros after the company said earnings will fall less than expected this year, helped by cost cuts and demand for video games. The owner of record company Universal Music Group also reported that adjusted third-quarter profit declined 2.9 percent to 665 million euros, beating the average analyst estimate of 598 million euros.
Infineon Technologies AG climbed 5.9 percent to 5.55 euros after Europe’s second-biggest semiconductor maker said it plans to reduce spending next year after fourth-quarter sales and operating profit topped analysts’ estimates.
The price of gold is increasing amid published unfavorable macroeconomic data and discussions on the "fiscal cliff."
According to published statistics, the U.S. retail sales in October fell by 0.3%, while the expected decrease of 0.2%, while the previous month was an increase of 1.1%, and the change with a minus sign was recorded for the first time in 4 months .
As for the topics of the day "fiscal cliff," Today, President Obama is scheduled to meet at the White House with a number of directors, including General Electric, and a press conference. After that, 16 November, Obama will negotiate with the Democrats and Republicans.
In Europe, the euro zone industrial production in September fell very strongly for more than 3 years - by 2.5% m / m and 2.3% y / y The largest drop in industrial output was recorded in Ireland and Portugal.
December futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1734.00 dollars per ounce.
- OMT risks must be weighed against risk of inaction
- ECB would halt OMT if country failed conditionality
- Faulty mon pol transmission mechanism threatens price stability
- ECB will not lose focus on price stability goal
- Continued fiscal consolidation in EMU is essential
Oil advanced after an Israeli airstrike killed a leader of Hamas’s militant wing in the Gaza Strip, bolstering concern that unrest in the Middle East will intensify curbing supplies.
Futures rose as much as 1.4 percent after the attack, which killed Ahmed al-Jabari and another man, according to Ashraf al- Qedra, a spokesman for the Hamas-run Health Ministry. The strike follows the firing of about 115 rockets from Gaza into Israel this week.
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa were responsible for 36 percent of global oil production and held 52 percent of proved reserves in 2011, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy.
Oil fell earlier as U.S. retail sales declined for the first time in four months in October. U.S. retail sales decreased 0.3 percent in October, according to the Commerce Department in Washington. The median forecast of 83 economists called for a drop of 0.2 percent.
Crude oil for December delivery advanced 61 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $85.99 a barrel at 11:12 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 13 percent this year.
Brent oil for December settlement, which expires tomorrow, rose $1.18, or 1.1 percent, to $109.44 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The more actively traded January contract gained $1.02 to $108.36.
Spain has taken effective action on 2012 2013 budget
Risk of fiscal slippage in Spain autonomous regions
No further steps in excessive deficit procedure needed
Will closely monitor budgetary developments in Spain
Spain 2014 measures 'fall short'
U.S. stock futures maintained gains after reports showed American wholesale prices and retail sales fell in October.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,664.73 +3.68 +0.04%
Hang Seng 21,441.99 +253.34 +1.20%
Shanghai Composite 2,055.42 +7.53 +0.37%
FTSE 5,751.36 -34.89 -0.60%
CAC 3,414.34 -16.26 -0.47%
DAX 7,141.3 -27.82 -0.39%
Crude oil $85.12 -0.30%
Gold $1728.70 + 0.27%
Cisco Systems (CSCO) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
Home Depot (HD) target raised to $69 at Stifel Nicolaus following earnings
Home Depot (HD) was downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James
EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2725, $1.2750, $1.2810, $1.2900
GBP/USD $1.5900
AUD/USD $1.0385, $1.0400, $1.0420, $1.0450
USD/JPY Y79.20, Y79.25, Y79.35, Y79.40, Y79.85, Y80.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
AUD/JPY Y81.00Data
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter III +1.0% +0.8% +0.7%
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter III +3.7% +3.8% +3.7%
07:45 France CPI, m/m October -0.3% +0.2% +0.2%
07:45 France CPI, y/y October +2.2% +1.9% +2.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count October 0.8 -5.1 +10.1
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate October 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate September 7.9% 7.9% 7.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y September +1.7% +1.8% +1.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y September +2.0% +2.0% +1%
10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) November -28.9 -25.0 -27.9
10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) September +0.9% -1.6% -2.5%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) September -2.9% -2.2% -2.3%
10:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report IV quarter
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -
Yen during trading showed the largest drop in the last two months against the dollar, after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he will dissolve parliament, paving the way for new vyborov.Takzhe negative impact on the currency had a message from Kyodo News, which says that the government is going to November 16 for the fourth consecutive decrease a country's economic growth. Recall that the published data this week showed a decline of the Japanese economy in the III quarter by 0.9% compared to the previous quarter, registering the first decline since 2011, which only confirms the fears that slowing global growth and tensions with China push its a recession.
Japan's currency weakened at 0.4% against all 16 major currencies on speculation that the opposition will win, and will increase the pressure on the central bank to carry out a more aggressive monetary policy, undermining demand for Japanese assets.
The dollar fell after the deputy chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen advocated support for the proposal to hold interest rates low for economic purposes.
The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six partners, reached 81.055.
The pound fell to a two-week low against the euro after the Bank of England said that the UK economy could shrink in the current quarter.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair set a high at $ 1.2755 and then decreased, and is now trading around $ 1.2727
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5900, but then fell sharply to $ 1.5850
USD / JPY: during the European session shows substantial growth, and is now trading at Y80.15
At 13:30 GMT the United States to declare changes in retail sales, changes in retail sales excluding auto sales, the change in volume of retail trade sales, excluding cars and fuel for October, and will also provide data on producer price index and producer price index, excluding prices for food and energy in October. At 15:00 GMT the U.S. will become aware of any change in stocks in commercial warehouses for September. At 19:00 GMT the U.S. will publish the minutes of the Fed in November. Finish the day at 21:30 GMT U.S. data on changes in the volume of crude oil, according to the API for November.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2800, $1.2760
Bids $1.2680, $1.2655/50, $1.2630/20
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6000/10, $1.5980/85, $1.5940/50
Bids $1.5850, $1.5820, $1.5805/00, $1.5780
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0470/90, $1.0455/60
Bids $1.0400, $1.0385/80, $1.0350, $1.0300
EUR/JPY
Offers Y103.00, Y102.50, Y102.20
Bids Y101.55/50, Y101.40, Y101.20/15, Y101.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y81.00, Y80.80, Y80.50, Y80.15/20
Bids Y79.75/70, Y79.55/50, Y79.25/20, Y79.10
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8120, stg0.8100, stg0.8080, stg0.8040
Bids stg0.7965/60, stg0.7945/40, stg0.7900
In the red zone are traded Wednesday on the European stock markets. Indices are down over 5 consecutive days. The reasons for this: Greece is once again on the verge of default and exit from the euro area, the threat of a "financial cliff" in the U.S., and a weak corporate reporting European companies.
FTSE 100 5,756.27 -29.98 -0.52%
CAC 40 3,423.74 -6.86 -0.20%
DAX 7,158.11 -11.01 -0.15%
The value of shares Electricite de France SA (EDF) dropped 1.3%. The company has reduced targets for the development of nuclear power for the second time in a year.
Capitalization brokerage ICAP fell 7.2% as of lposle ICAP pretax profit for the first finpolugodiya fallen by 26% - up to 137 million pounds ($ 217 million). The company expects annual profit at the lower boundary in the projected range 300-332 million pounds.
Mediaset shares lost 4.1% in value. Mediaset net loss in the third quarter was 88.4 million euros, compared with a net profit of 1.4 million euros in the same quarter a year earlier.
Quotes Vivendi rose by 1.3% due to lower profits for the second quarter by 2.6% in annual terms - up to 665 million euros compared to the forecast of the market in 598 million euros.
EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2725, $1.2750, $1.2810, $1.2900
GBP/USD $1.5900
AUD/USD $1.0385, $1.0400, $1.0420, $1.0450
USD/JPY Y79.20, Y79.25, Y79.35, Y79.40, Y79.85, Y80.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
AUD/JPY Y81.00
Asian stocks gained as a rebound in financial shares tempered declines at industrial and raw- material companies. China’s once-in-a-decade meeting to choose new leaders draws to a close today.
Nikkei 225 8,664.73 +3.68 +0.04%
S&P/ASX 200 4,388.37 +8.56 +0.20%
Shanghai Composite 2,055.42 +7.53 +0.37%
Sharp Corp. surged 7.2 percent as Kyodo News reported Intel Corp. may invest as much as 40 billion yen ($500 million) in the Japanese TV maker.
Iluka Resources Ltd. fell 6.4 percent in Sydney after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised selling shares of the world’s biggest zircon producer, citing lower mineral sands prices.
China Construction Bank Corp. rose 2.3 percent in Hong Kong as the Financial News reported the nation’s second-largest lender by assets said it can keep non-performing loans under control even as economic growth slows.
The euro touched two-month lows against the dollar and Swiss franc as European finance ministers struggled to agree on how to provide additional aid for Greece.
The 17-nation currency erased losses against the greenback climbed as U.S. stocks rose amid an increase in risk appetite. The dollar and yen gained versus most major peers after euro-area policy makers gave Greece two extra years to lower its budget deficit.
Euro-area finance ministers will reconvene in an “extraordinary meeting” next week to discuss Greece’s financing needs, according to a statement read out by Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker at the conclusion of a gathering in Brussels late. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said after the meeting that Greece’s creditors had “different views.”
The finance ministers put off until Nov. 20 a decision on how to cover additional Greek needs of as much as 32.6 billion euros ($41 billion). Lagarde disagreed with a decision by the officials to postpone the goal of getting Greece’s debt down to 120 percent of GDP by two years, until 2022.
A gauge of German investor sentiment unexpectedly fell. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor confidence, which is designed to predict economic developments six months in advance, dropped to minus 15.7, from minus 11.5 in October. Economists forecast an increase to minus 10.
The pound advanced versus most major peers after a report showed U.K. inflation accelerated more than economists forecast in October. U.K. consumer prices rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, compared with 2.2 percent in September, the Office for National Statistics said in London. Inflation was forecast to quicken to 2.4 percent.
Asian stocks fell to a two-month led by banking shares and developers after Australia’s business confidence deteriorated and on a report China may expand a property tax trial.
Nikkei 225 8,661.05 -15.39 -0.18%
S&P/ASX 200 4,379.8 -68.23 -1.53%
Shanghai Composite 2,047.89 -31.39 -1.51%
Westpac Banking Corp. dropped 1.7 percent in Sydney.
QBE Insurance Group Ltd. sank 6.1 percent as analysts cut ratings for Australia’s biggest insurer after lowered its profit forecast.
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. led Chinese developers lower in Hong Kong. Petrochina Co. slid 1.7 percent as oil prices declined.
European stocks climbed, halting a four-day decline for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as yields on benchmark Spanish bonds slipped amid speculation that the country’s government will soon ask for a bailout.
Euro-area finance ministers gave Greece an extra two years to cut its budget deficit to 2 percent of gross domestic product, pledging to plug the resulting financing gap to prevent the country from leaving the single currency.
Finance ministers put off until Nov. 20 a decision on how to cover additional Greek needs of as much as 32.6 billion euros ($41 billion) and left unclear whether the International Monetary Fund will continue to contribute. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde disagreed with a decision by the representatives of the 17-nation currency zone to postpone the goal of getting Greece’s debt down to 120 percent of GDP by two years, until 2022.
National benchmark indexes gained in 14 of 18 western- European markets today. France’s CAC 40 (CAC) rose 0.6 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.3 percent. Germany’s DAX climbed less than 0.1 percent.
UniCredit SpA climbed 4.4 percent to 3.52 euros. Italy’s biggest bank reported third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates after a record loss a year earlier because of writedowns. Net income increased to 335 million euros, compared with a net loss of 10.6 billion euros a year earlier when the Milan-based lender booked goodwill impairments of 8.7 billion euros. Profit surpassed the 99 million-euro average estimate of 13 analysts.
EON slumped 12 percent to 14.64 euros, its biggest retreat in 20 years, after saying its forecast of 3.2 billion euros to 3.7 billion euros of underlying net income next year “no longer seems achievable” because gas-fired power plants aren’t making money. The company also said it will consider cutting dividend payments.
Vodafone slid 2.5 percent to 162.5 pence as the announcement of the 5.9 billion-pound ($9.4 billion) impairment outweighed its decision to start a 1.5 billion-pound buyback plan. Verizon Wireless will pay an $8.5 billion dividend to its co-owners, Vodafone and Verizon Communications Inc., by the end of 2012, enabling Vodafone to finance the share buyback.
K+S AG sank 4.5 percent to 34.29 euros. Europe’s largest potash maker said it expects sales and profit in 2012 to only reach the bottom of its targeted range as delays on Chinese and Indian contracts restrain market prices for fertilizer.
Yesterday session, the major U.S. stock indexes started and ended in the red, but in the middle of trading were able to retreat from session lows thanks to some concerns about the weakening of the situation in Europe, as well as a strong quarterly report from the company Home Depot (HD).
Reduce concerns about the situation in Europe contributed to the words of the Minister of Finance of Greece, who said that the talks with the troika of international lenders were constructive and that he expects to receive a final positive decision regarding the provision of the next tranche of financial aid to 20 November.
In turn, a quarterly report of Home Depot (HD) was slightly better than expected, in addition, the company raised its outlook on the financial performance for the next year. Market participants perceived strong quarterly report Home Depot, which is the largest network in the world for the sale of tools for repairing and building materials, as an additional signal of stabilization and even improvement in the U.S. housing market.
However, the prerequisites for significant growth index is not: even if a positive decision on the allocation of a new tranche of financial aid, it does not solve the problems of Greece, and the report of one of the many companies, albeit rather large and important from the point of view of the situation in the real estate market, does not substantially alter the overall picture of the current season of quarterly reports, which is quite disappointing.
Market nervousness adds the problem of "fiscal cliff" in the United States. After his re-election President Obama has been actively engaged in this issue, but so far no results, and the continued high chance that a compromise on this issue can not be achieved. The result will be a decline in U.S. GDP growth to 0.5% and an increase in unemployment to 9%. In any case, the forward-looking voices Congressional Budget Office. Although the true negative effect of the "fiscal cliff" may be more significant.
Most of the components of the index DOW declined. Maximum loss incurred stock Microsoft (MSFT, -3.88%), which provides the pressure leaving the company one of the top managers. Shares rose more than other The Home Depot (HD, +3.91%), which are due to a strong quarterly report today updated the historical maximum.
Most sectors of the S & P is in the red. Below is the rest of the basic materials sector (-0.8%). The leaders of the sector of consumer goods (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.3%).
At the close:
Dow 12,756.18 -58.90 -0.46%
Nasdaq 2,883.89 -20.37 -0.70%
S&P 500 1,374.53 -5.50 -0.40%
Asian session: The yen weakened
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter III +1.0% +0.8% +0.7%
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter III +3.7% +3.8% +3.7%
The yen weakened against all 16 major peers on speculation the Bank of Japan (8301) will act to rein in the currency’s strength as it hurts exporters’ earnings. The yen snapped a five-day advance versus the euro after Kyodo News reported the nation’s government will downgrade its monthly economic assessment, which is due Nov. 16, and as a rally in stocks curbed demand for safer assets. Kyodo reported the government will cut its economic assessment for a fourth consecutive month, citing people close to the matter. Data this week showed the nation’s gross domestic product contracted in the third quarter by the most since last year’s earthquake as exports slumped and consumer spending slid. The BOJ increased its asset-purchase program by 11 trillion yen ($138 billion) to 66 trillion yen on Oct. 30, saying the central bank and the government will make “utmost” efforts to overcome deflation. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his board next meet on Nov. 19-20.
The euro rebounded from the lowest level in two months as a technical indicator signaled its recent decline may have been too rapid. The 14-day relative strength index for the euro versus the dollar fell to 33.4 yesterday, near the 30 level that some traders see as a sign that an asset price may reverse course. A similar gauge for the single currency against the yen declined to 37.8.
Gains in the euro were limited before data today forecast to show industrial production fell in the currency bloc, adding to signs that the region’s debt crisis is hampering growth. Industrial output in the 17-member euro area declined 2 percent in September from August, when it increased 0.6 percent, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before the data release today.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to yesterday's high.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose, departing from the previous day's low.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y79.55.
Change % Change Last
Oil $85.31 -0.07 -0.08%
Gold $1,725.50 +0.70 +0.04%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,661.05 -15.39 -0.18%
S&P/ASX 200 4,379.8 -68.23 -1.53%
Shanghai Composite 2,047.89 -31.39 -1.51%
FTSE 100 5,786.25 +18.98 +0.33%
CAC 40 3,430.6 +18.95 +0.56%
DAX 7,169.12 +0.36 +0.01%
Dow 12,756.18 -58.90 -0.46%
Nasdaq 2,883.89 -20.37 -0.70%
S&P 500 1,374.53 -5.50 -0.40%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2703 -0,04%
GBP/USD $1,5870 -0,04%
USD/CHF Chf0,9472 -0,10%
USD/JPY Y79,37 -0,16%
EUR/JPY Y100,83 -0,18%
GBP/JPY Y125,94 -0,18%
AUD/USD $1,0435 +0,08%
NZD/USD $0,8158 -0,21%
USD/CAD C$1,0019 +0,21%
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter III +1.0% +0.8% +0.7%
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter III +3.7% +3.8% +3.7%
07:45 France CPI, m/m October -0.3% +0.2%
07:45 France CPI, y/y October +1.9% +1.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count October -4.0 -5.1
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate October 4.8% 4.8%
09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate September 7.9% 7.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y September +1.7% +1.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y September +2.0% +2.0%
10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) November -28.9 -25.0
10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) September +0.6% -1.6%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) September -2.9% -2.2%
10:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report IV quarter
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -
13:30 U.S. Retail sales October +1.1% 0.0%
13:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto October +1.1% +0.3%
13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m October +1.1% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y October +2.1% +2.6%
13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m October 0.0% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y October +2.3% +2.4%
19:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes -
21:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) October -2.9%
21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI October 48.2
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