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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 13-11-2012
The euro touched two-month lows against the dollar and Swiss franc as European finance ministers struggled to agree on how to provide additional aid for Greece.
The 17-nation currency erased losses against the greenback climbed as U.S. stocks rose amid an increase in risk appetite. The dollar and yen gained versus most major peers after euro-area policy makers gave Greece two extra years to lower its budget deficit.
Euro-area finance ministers will reconvene in an “extraordinary meeting” next week to discuss Greece’s financing needs, according to a statement read out by Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker at the conclusion of a gathering in Brussels late yesterday. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said after the meeting that Greece’s creditors had “different views.”
The finance ministers put off until Nov. 20 a decision on how to cover additional Greek needs of as much as 32.6 billion euros ($41 billion). Lagarde disagreed with a decision by the officials to postpone the goal of getting Greece’s debt down to 120 percent of GDP by two years, until 2022.
A gauge of German investor sentiment unexpectedly fell. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor confidence, which is designed to predict economic developments six months in advance, dropped to minus 15.7, from minus 11.5 in October. Economists forecast an increase to minus 10.
The pound advanced versus most major peers after a report showed U.K. inflation accelerated more than economists forecast in October. U.K. consumer prices rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, compared with 2.2 percent in September, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Inflation was forecast to quicken to 2.4 percent.
European stocks climbed, halting a four-day decline for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as yields on benchmark Spanish bonds slipped amid speculation that the country’s government will soon ask for a bailout.
Euro-area finance ministers gave Greece an extra two years to cut its budget deficit to 2 percent of gross domestic product, pledging to plug the resulting financing gap to prevent the country from leaving the single currency.
Finance ministers put off until Nov. 20 a decision on how to cover additional Greek needs of as much as 32.6 billion euros ($41 billion) and left unclear whether the International Monetary Fund will continue to contribute. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde disagreed with a decision by the representatives of the 17-nation currency zone to postpone the goal of getting Greece’s debt down to 120 percent of GDP by two years, until 2022.
National benchmark indexes gained in 14 of 18 western- European markets today. France’s CAC 40 (CAC) rose 0.6 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.3 percent. Germany’s DAX climbed less than 0.1 percent.
UniCredit SpA climbed 4.4 percent to 3.52 euros. Italy’s biggest bank reported third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates after a record loss a year earlier because of writedowns. Net income increased to 335 million euros, compared with a net loss of 10.6 billion euros a year earlier when the Milan-based lender booked goodwill impairments of 8.7 billion euros. Profit surpassed the 99 million-euro average estimate of 13 analysts.
EON slumped 12 percent to 14.64 euros, its biggest retreat in 20 years, after saying yesterday its forecast of 3.2 billion euros to 3.7 billion euros of underlying net income next year “no longer seems achievable” because gas-fired power plants aren’t making money. The company also said it will consider cutting dividend payments.
Vodafone slid 2.5 percent to 162.5 pence as the announcement of the 5.9 billion-pound ($9.4 billion) impairment outweighed its decision to start a 1.5 billion-pound buyback plan. Verizon Wireless will pay an $8.5 billion dividend to its co-owners, Vodafone and Verizon Communications Inc., by the end of 2012, enabling Vodafone to finance the share buyback.
K+S AG sank 4.5 percent to 34.29 euros. Europe’s largest potash maker said it expects sales and profit in 2012 to only reach the bottom of its targeted range as delays on Chinese and Indian contracts restrain market prices for fertilizer.
Oil prices are down due to concerns about consumption growth amid financial problems the U.S. and the EU.
In the U.S. authorities have seven weeks to reach an agreement on the planned budget cuts and tax increases that threaten recession. Democrats and Republicans agree that these measures should be avoided, but Republicans believe that tax relief should be extended to all citizens, and the Democrats and the president - only for those with incomes below $ 250,000 a year.
In Europe, the international creditors Greece allocated additional credits, but gave her two years to achieve the budget.
Tensions in the Middle East remains a factor supporting prices. Iran this week to hold the largest in its history, military exercises involving 8,000 troops, bombers and fighters, the Iranian TV. Last week, the U.S. said that the Air Force of Iran U.S. drone fired in international airspace.
Iran in October increased oil production after seven months of decline and significantly increased exports, reported the International Energy Agency. In its monthly report, the agency lowered the forecast of world oil consumption in 2012 and 2013 by 100,000 barrels per day.
Crude for December delivery fell to $84.57 per barrel, and then rose to $85.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
December futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 84.57 dollars per barrel, and then rose to 85.95 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent for December settlement declined 70 cents, or 0.6 percent to $108.37 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The price fell as low as $107.38.
Gold is cheaper on the back of weak euro to two-month low against the dollar and uncertainty about the provision of a new portion of Greek loans.
While players and hope that Greece will stretch this week with no credit, for which it had hoped, uncertainty about the short-term financing and reduce the country's debt scare investors away from the euro.
Greece plans Tuesday to sell treasury bills to refinance Five Billion Euro-issue maturing on Friday, and some players do not believe in the success of the auction.
Euro zone finance ministers agreed to give Athens two years to achieve the goal of the budget, but the eurozone and the IMF can not agree who will bear the associated costs in the order of 33 billion euros.
A new meeting of Eurogroup held on November 20, said its president, Jean-Claude Juncker, and on 22 November the EU summit opens.
In 2013, prices will rise to $ 2,000, because the cost of production limits its growth, and demand from central banks and Chinese consumers increases, the general director of the world's largest gold producer Barrick Gold Jamie Sokalski.
He also noted the increase in investment demand for gold due to economic uncertainty and new investment vehicles in Asia.
Price increase helps the threat of financial problems in the U.S. that could push the world's largest economy into recession.
December futures price of gold on COMEX today fell to 1717.60 dollars per ounce.
Enhanced credit line ESM is closely linked to ОМТ
Not limit the extended credit facility ESM
U.S. stock futures dropped as concern mounted that the so-called fiscal cliff will harm the economy and as euro-area finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund failed to agree on how Greece will repay its debt.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,661.05 -15.39 -0.18%
Hang Seng 21,188.65 -241.65 -1.13%
Shanghai Composite 2,047.89 -31.39 -1.51%
FTSE 5,729.12 -38.15 -0.66%
CAC 3,382.73 -28.92 -0.85%
DAX 7,097.81 -70.95 -0.99%
Crude oil $84.88 -0.81%
Gold $1726.30 -0.27%
EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2725, $1.2775, $1.2800
AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0370, $1.0420, $1.0440, $1.0465, $1.0475, $1.0500
USD/JPY Y79.20, Y79.40, Y79.50, Y80.20, Y80.35
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
AUD/JPY Y82.50, Y82.60Data
00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance October -15% -15% -7%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) September -1.6% -4.1% -4.1%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) September -8.1% -8.1%
07:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (preliminary) Quarter III -0.1% -0.2% -0.3%
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m October +0.3% +0.2% -0.1%
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y October +0.3% 0.0% +0.4%
09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m October +0.4% +0.2% +0.5%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y October +2.2% +2.3% +2.7%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y October +2.1% +2.2% +2.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m October +0.5% +0.2% +0.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y October +2.6% +2.9% +3.2%
09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y October +2.6% +2.9% +3.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) October -0.1% -0.4% +0.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) October -1.0% -0.5% +0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) October +0.5% +0.2% +0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) October +2.5% +2.5% +2.5%
10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment November -11.5 -10.1 -15.7
10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment November -1.4 0.2 -2.6
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter November
The euro sharply against the dollar, departing from the two-month low, after the German newspaper Bild-Zeitung reported that Germany is for the provision of a single tranche of aid to Greece. Against this background, the single currency regained its early losses against the yen and the Swiss franc. According to the statement, if Greece can get the 44 billion euros (56 billion dollars).
Also recall that the finance ministers of the euro area have given Greece two additional years, to reduce the budget deficit.
The pound strengthened against the euro, breaking a series of two-day decline, after a report showed that inflation in the UK rose in October, much more than economists forecast, as well as in a renewed concerns over Greek debt.
Office for National Statistics said that consumer prices in October to 2.7% in annual terms, though showing the highest value since May. It is projected that inflation would go up to 2.4%.
The pound rose against 14 of its 16 major counterparts after Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said the euro zone finance ministers will meet again next week to decide how to cover the needs of Greece in financing.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair set a minimum level of $ 1.2660, and then grew up and is now trading around $ 1.2695
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5915, but then fell sharply to $ 1.5880
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell, setting all-time low at Y79.20, and then showed a sharp increase
At 19:00 in the U.S. Treasury Department released a report on the currency in November, and a monthly performance report for October. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand has announced changes in retail sales, changes in retail sales excluding auto sales, Producer Price Index and the Producer Price Index for Q3. Finish the day at 23:30 GMT Australia data on the index of consumer confidence from Westpac for November.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2760, $1.2735/40
Bids $1.2660-50, $1.2630/20, $1.2600, $1.2565/60
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6000/10, $1.5980/85, $1.5940/50
Bids $1.5870, $1.5850, $1.5820, $1.5805/00
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0470/90, $1.0460, $1.0445/50
Bids $1.0385/80, $1.0350, $1.0300, $1.0280
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.15/20, Y79.95/00, Y79.85/90, Y79.60/65Bids Y79.25/20, Y79.10, Y79.00, Y78.80
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8120, stg0.8100, stg0.8080, stg0.8040, stg0.8031
Bids stg0.7965/60, stg0.7945/40, stg0.7900
EUR/JPY
Offers Y102.00, Y101.75/80, Y101.60, Y101.45/50, Y101.00
Bids Y100.40/30, Y100.20, Y100.00, Y99.80, Y99.50Investors reacted negatively to the decision of the eurozone finance ministers to delay the selection of Greece tranche until November 20. The country was to receive 31.5 billion euros, which would be enough to service the current debt.
Pessimism adds data on the index of business activity in the euro area and Germany from the institute ZEW. The index fell more than analysts had expected.
FTSE 100 5,722.17 -45.10 -0.78%
DAX 7,123.00 -45.76 -0.64%
CAC 3,381.85 -29.80 -0.87%
Vodaphone Group shares fell by 3.49% due to the decrease in revenues, as well as writedowns of 5.9 billion pounds ($ 9.4 billion) in Italy and Spain. Quotes Pirelli & C SpA decreased by 2.7% due to lower earnings forecast.
EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2725, $1.2775, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.30, Y79.40, Y80.00, Y80.50
EUR/JPY Y103.25
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6030, $1.6050, $1.6100, $1.5910
EUR/GBP stg0.8000
GBP/CHF Chf1.5230
USD/CHF Chf0.9425
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0425, $1.0430, $1.0445
Asian stocks fell to a two-month led by banking shares and developers after Australia’s business confidence deteriorated and on a report China may expand a property tax trial.
Nikkei 225 8,661.05 -15.39 -0.18%
S&P/ASX 200 4,379.8 -68.23 -1.53%
Shanghai Composite 2,047.89 -31.39 -1.51%
Westpac Banking Corp. dropped 1.7 percent in Sydney.
QBE Insurance Group Ltd. sank 6.1 percent as analysts cut ratings for Australia’s biggest insurer after lowered its profit forecast.
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. led Chinese developers lower in Hong Kong. Petrochina Co. slid 1.7 percent as oil prices declined.
Yesterday the euro traded close to a two-month low against the dollar as a draft policy makers’ report said Greece may require an extra $15 billion during the next two years and there are “very large risks.”
Europe’s shared currency traded at almost a one-month low against the yen after the report about the so-called troika as European leaders prepare to meet to seek a plan to maintain Greece’s solvency. Giving Greece a two-year extension to meet budget targets would ease the impact of austerity measures, the troika said.
The Australian dollar rallied after a bigger- than-estimated trade surplus in China improved prospects for commodity exports. China’s exports exceeded imports by $32 billion in October, the customs administration said Nov. 10, compared with a $27.3 billion trade surplus estimated by economists. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner.
The pound fell amid speculation the Bank of England’s latest growth and inflation projections may lead to more asset purchases. The Bank of England’s quarterly report is due in two days and may provide room for further asset purchases to boost growth. The central bank refrained from adding more stimulus at its most recent policy meeting, minutes from which are due next week.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for its lowest close in a month, after Japan’s economy shrank at the fastest pace since last year’s earthquake, overshadowing an acceleration in China’s exports.
Nikkei 225 8,676.44 -81.16 -0.93%
S&P/ASX 200 4,448.03 -13.99 -0.31%
Shanghai Composite 2,079.27 +10.21 +0.49%
Yokohama Rubber Co. sank 6.3 percent after posting quarterly earnings that missed analysts’ estimates and as the price of rubber fell to a two-month low following the Japanese data.
QBE Insurance Group Ltd. sank 8.3 percent, the most in 11 months, after Australia’s No. 1 insurer by market value said it will issue debt due to losses from U.S. super storm Sandy.
Li & Fung Ltd., a supplier of clothes and toys to Wal-Mart Stores Inc., climbed 1.3 percent as China’s exports grew at the fastest rate since May.
European stocks fell to a two-week low as euro-area finance ministers met to discuss Greek aid and concern grew that impending U.S. tax increases and spending cuts will harm the world’s biggest economy.
National benchmark indexes fell in 12 of the 18 western- European markets today. France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.4 percent, while Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 were little changed.
Greece’s ASE sank 3.6 percent as Alpha Bank tumbled 14 percent to 1.56 euros. National Bank of Greece SA, the nation’s largest lender, lost 14 percent to 1.51 euros.
Plans to give Greece extra time to meet deficit-cutting targets would open up a financing gap of about 15 billion euros through 2014 and 17.6 billion euros in the two following years, the country’s creditors said. The so-called troika of the European Commission, ECB and International Monetary Fund supplied the estimates for tonight’s meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News.
Telecom Italia climbed 4.2 percent to 72 euro cents. Italy’s former phone monopoly received interest from Sawiris, founder of Orascom Telecom Holding SAE, about an investment “through underwriting of new stock,” the Milan-based company said today. The offer is valued at more than 2 billion euros, said a person familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified because the discussions are confidential.
Banco Popular Espanol SA surged 4.6 percent to 1.17 euros as the Spanish bank said it plans to sell as much as 2.5 billion euros of discounted shares to close a capital shortfall.
After a positive start major U.S. stock indices fell into the red zone, the middle of trading were able to recover and finished the session in flet line.
Against the background of the celebration of Veterans Day today reduced trading activity.
The focus of the market there are two problems: the "budget break" in the U.S. and a possible Greek default.
In the U.S., it has been mentioned that this week should pass a meeting of U.S. President Obama and the leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties.
As for Greece, the Eurogroup summit is taking place today, where finance ministers could reach a preliminary agreement on the allocation of Athens next tranche of financial aid. Media published a draft report "troika" of Greece. Despite the fact that the report argues for an additional 15 billion euros to Athens until the end of 2014 and refers to the "high risk" program exit of Greece from the crisis, also noted "significant growth" performance agreements that countries receive international financial assistance.
Media also reported that the "troika" can give Greece an additional 2 years to reach the goals. This will reduce the impact of painful austerity measures.
DOW index components were mixed. Maximum loss incurred stock Microsoft (MSFT, -2.12%). Shares rose more than other United Technologies (UTX, +1.46%).
The main sectors of the S & P also showed a mixed trend. The maximum decrease in the sector and utilities (-0.8%). Lead the health sector (+0.2%).
American manufacturer of components for the aviation industry Precision Castparts has agreed to buy the company Titanium Metals, owned by billionaire Harold Simmons, for $ 2.9 billion at the news Precision Castparts shares rose by 4.9%, while Titanium Metals went into plus 42.6%.
At the close:
Dow 12,815.16 -0.23 -0.00%
Nasdaq 2,904.26 -0.61 -0.02%
S&P 500 1,380.00 +0.15 +0.01%
00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance October -15% -15% -7%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) September -4.1% -4.1% -4.1%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) September -8.1% -8.1%
The euro fell to a two-month low as finance ministers from the currency bloc struggled to agree on Greek aid, curbing demand for the common currency. The 17-nation euro slid versus most of its major peers after Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said the ministers will meet again on Nov. 20 to discuss Greece, putting off a decision on how to cover the nation’s need for additional financing of as much as 32.6 billion euros ($41 billion). Euro-area finance ministers will gather in an “extraordinary meeting” next week to discuss Greece’s financing needs, they said in a statement, read out by Juncker at the conclusion of a meeting in Brussels. The ministers also granted Greece until 2016 to cut the deficit to 2 percent of gross domestic product.
In Germany, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research’s gauge assessing the current economic situation probably fell to 8 this month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before today’s report. That would be the lowest since June 2010 and compares with a reading of 10 in October. Its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, may have recovered to minus 10 in November from minus 11.5 in the previous month, a separate poll showed.
The yen gained against all of its most-traded counterparts, reversing an earlier drop, as Asian shares slid. A report yesterday showed the nation’s economy shrank in the third quarter by the most since last year’s earthquake. Today, the Trade Ministry released final figures on industrial output, which confirmed that it weakened 4.1 percent in September from the prior month, the biggest drop since March 2011.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.2670.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.5855.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y79.20.
The European session starts with French data, as 0745GMT sees the release of the September current account numbers and the third
quarter employment data. At 0900GMT, the latest IEA monthly oil market report is set to cross the wires. The main eurozone release for the day is the German November ZEW survey, with analysts looking for a small increase in sentiment to -10 from -11.5, but a modest slip in current conditions to +8.5 from 10. Also Tuesday, the European Union finance ministers gather at the monthly Ecofin meeting and Greece is likely to feature high up the agenda. UK data gets underway at 0930GMT, with the now joint release of producer and consumer inflation data. In terms of the PPI data, oil prices fell back in October having risen in September, which should have fed through to a fall in input prices. Also expected at 0930GMT are the UK September House Price Index from the ONS and the November Weekly Fuel Prices data. Last up, at 2030GMT, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks to the University of California, Berkely's Haas School, afterwards taking questions from the audience.Change % Change Last
Oil $85.62 +0.05 +0.06%
Gold $1,728.00 -2.90 -0.17%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,676.44 -81.16 -0.93%
S&P/ASX 200 4,448.03 -13.99 -0.31%
Shanghai Composite 2,079.27 +10.21 +0.49%
FTSE 100 5,767.27 -2.41 -0.04%
CAC 40 3,411.65 -11.92 -0.35%
DAX 7,168.76 +5.26 +0.07%
Dow 12,815.16 -0.23 -0.00%
Nasdaq 2,904.26 -0.61 -0.02%
S&P 500 1,380.00 +0.15 +0.01%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2708 -0,02%
GBP/USD $1,5877 -0,11%
USD/CHF Chf0,9481 -0,04%
USD/JPY Y79,50 +0,04%
EUR/JPY Y101,01 +0,01%
GBP/JPY Y126,17 -0,10%
AUD/USD $1,0427 +0,40%
NZD/USD $0,8175 +0,35%
USD/CAD C$0,9998 -0,14%
00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance October -15% -15% -7%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) September -4.1% -4.1%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) September -8.1%
07:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (preliminary) Quarter III -0.1% -0.2%
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m October +0.3% +0.2%
08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y October +0.3% 0.0%
09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m October +0.4% +0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y October +2.2% +2.3%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y October +2.1% +2.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m October +0.5% +0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y October +2.6% +2.9%
09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y October +2.6% +2.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) October -0.2% -0.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) October -1.2% -0.5%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) October +0.5% +0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) October +2.5% +2.5%
10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment November -11.5 -10.1
10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment November -1.4 0.2
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter November
19:00 U.S. Federal budget October 75.0 -126.2
21:45 New Zealand Retail Sales, q/q Quarter III +1.3% +0.4%
21:45 New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos, q/q Quarter III +0.9% +0.6%
23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence November +1.0%
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