CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-11-2012

The euro fell to a two-month low against the dollar after European Union finance ministers said they would postpone a decision until the revenge issue of providing financial assistance to Greece.

The single currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the economic growth will remain weak. He also said that the finance ministers of the euro area will not be able to take action on Greece until the end of November, as they expect a full report on compliance with requirements.

The yen rose against all 16 major currencies, as the demand for safe assets was raised amid speculation that U.S. lawmakers will take measures that prevent a looming "fiscal cliff," which carries with it the tax increases and spending cuts.

The pound continued its yesterday's rise against the euro after the Bank of England has said it will support a program to purchase assets at 375 billion pounds ($ 599 billion). Also today, the BA decided by the level of interest rate, leaving it unchanged at 0.5%.

The Canadian dollar fell against the fact that the published data showed that the number of bookmarks new foundations were well below analysts' expectations. At the same time, it became known that the price index for new homes showed an increase in line with forecasts. Also on this momentum influenced gradual decline in demand for riskier assets.

European stocks were little changed, after yesterday sliding the most in two weeks, as a selloff in auto manufacturers overshadowed results from Swiss Re Ltd. and Hermes International (RMS) SCA that beat analysts’ estimates.

PSA Peugeot Citroen SA (UG) and Valeo SA both lost more than 4.5 percent as analysts downgraded their shares. Swiss Re gained 1.9 percent after saying smaller losses from natural disasters helped net income surge in the third quarter. Hermes advanced 2 percent as sales rose because of increased demand in Asia.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.1 percent to 270.8 at 4:30 p.m. in London, after earlier climbing as much as 0.6 percent.

National benchmark indexes fell in 15 of the 18 western- European (SXXP) markets.

FTSE 100 5,776.05 -15.58 -0.27% CAC 40 3,407.68 -1.91 -0.06% DAX 7,204.96 -27.87 -0.39%

Greece’s ASE slumped 3.8 percent even as Prime Minister Antonis Samaras obtained a parliamentary majority for a package of austerity measures needed to release further financial aid from the European Union.

Stocks briefly declined after euro-area finance ministers were said to delay a decision on whether to provide further financial aid to Greece.

The ECB left its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.75 percent. Draghi reiterated that the central bank will buy the debt of countries that ask it to intervene in their bond markets.

The Bank of England held its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent.

Peugeot dropped 6 percent to 4.47 euros after Citigroup Inc. lowered its recommendation for Europe’s second-biggest carmaker to sell from neutral, citing the company’s struggles with cash.

Valeo declined 4.7 percent to 33.16 euros after UBS AG downgraded France’s second-largest car-parts maker to neutral from buy, saying consensus estimates for European auto suppliers remained too high and all companies will face earnings downgrades.

Pirelli & Cie. lost 2.8 percent to 8.50 euros after brokerages including Exane BNP Paribas said the tiremaker may lower its forecasts. Exane projected sales of 6.1 billion euros ($7.8 billion) in 2012, rather than the current guidance of 6.4 billion euros.

Hermes gained 2 percent to 223.60 euros after the French maker of Birkin bags and silk scarves said third-quarter sales advanced 24 percent from a year earlier to 848.6 million euros. The average analyst’s estimates had called for 803.8 million euros. Excluding currency swings, sales rose 16 percent.

Siemens AG (SIE) added 1.8 percent to 80.27 euros after Europe’s largest engineering company announced that it plans to cut costs by 5 billion euros as it prepares for lower profit in 2013.

BTG Plc (BTG) soared 7.6 percent to 352.4 pence after the drugmaker reported first-half adjusted earnings per share of 5.6 pence, compared with 3.9 pence a year earlier. It reiterated its 2013 revenue forecast.

During the day, oil prices rebounded from four-month low after data showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly fell and Greek lawmakers approved a package of austerity measures, which are necessary to obtain additional financing.

Futures rose 1.5%, since the Department of Labor said the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 8,000 to 355,000 level last week, while analysts expect that figure will rise to the level of 365,000.

We also learned that the Greek parliament passed a bill on pensions, wages and cuts.

However, despite this significant growth, oil prices have fallen sharply, and now fluctuate slightly above zero.

Note that the data released today showed that consumer confidence rose last week, and reached its highest level in more than four years. At the same time, consumer comfort index rose to -34.4 for the period, which ended on November 4, while showing the best result since April.

Also today, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the economic outlook is deteriorating, and the bank is ready to step up its program to purchase bonds if the Greek government has met the necessary conditions.

December futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 84.77 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

December futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose $0.50 to 107.24 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices traded today near the level of $ 1715 an ounce, as investors shifted focus from re-election of President Barack Obama to "fiscal cliff" in the U.S., as well as the crisis in the euro area, in total has depressed the euro to two-month low against the dollar

Fears of a "fiscal cliff" support the price of gold, which is an asset-save, but at the same time strengthening dollar is putting pressure on prices, making the precious metal more expensive for buyers who use other currencies.

In the long term, gold may benefit from uncertainty about the impending "fiscal cliff", which can cause a reduction in spending and tax increases totaling $ 600 billion, and "drive" the U.S. economy into a deep recession.

Analysts say that is a key resistance level for gold is $ 1,730, a break of which may cause an increase to $ 1,750, and then $ 1800.

Note also that the demand for gold in India among importers remained weak against the fact that the weak rupiah kept prices close to their highest level in a month. Recall that the festival season in India will reach its peak in the next week, and will continue until December.

At the same time, demand for gold in China is expected to grow by 1% this year, reaching a record high with 860 tons, as the sale of jewelery and investment sales are rising. This increase means that China will overtake India as the world's largest consumer of gold for the first time on an annual basis.

December futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1716.80 an ounce.

U.S. stock futures maintained gains after a report showed fewer Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment insurance last week.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,837.15 -135.74 -1.51%
Hang Seng 21,566.91 -532.94 -2.41%
Shanghai Composite 2,071.51 -34.22 -1.63%
FTSE  5,802.64 +11.01 +0.19%
CAC  3,425.85 +16.26 +0.48%
DAX 7,249.04 +16.21 +0.22%
Crude oil $85.65 +1,43%

Gold $1715.20 +0.07%

- So far we have not seen signs of deflation

- No signs of deflation at level of EMU or member states

- Shldn't confuse welcome price adjustment with deflation

- We see price behavior in line with mid-term objectives

- Our monpol is already very accommodative

- Real int rates negative in large part of EMU

- OMT Announcement by itself produced easing of fin conds

- We stand ready to act on standard, nonstand measures

- We cannot do monetary financing for Greece

- SMP profits naturally accrue to eurosystem cenbanks

Bank of America (BAC) was upgraded to a Buy from Hold at ISI Group.
AT&T target lowered to $32 from $36 at Hudson Square Research.

EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2725, $1.2880, $1.2900

USD/JPY Y79.75, Y79.90, Y80.00, Y80.25, Y80.50

GBP/USD  $1.6000, $1.6095, $1.6175

GBP/JPY Y130.80

USD/CHF Chf0.9400

EUR/SEK Sek8.60

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate October 2.9% 3.0% 2.9%

07:00 Germany Trade Balance September 18.1 17.2 17

07:45 France Trade Balance, bln September -5.3 -5.0 -5.03

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375 375

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%

13:15 Canada Housing Starts October 225 215 204

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions September -1.1 -1.4 -0.8

13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index September +0.2% +0.2% +0.2%

13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -

13:30 U.S. International trade, bln September -44.2 -44.9 -41.5

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 363 373 355

The euro fell to a two-month low against the dollar after German exports fell sharply in September amid falling demand from the euro-zone members. It was another sign that the sovereign debt crisis, after all, reached the borders of Germany. According to the submitted data on Thursday, German exports in September fell by 2.5% compared with August, which graded the growth in the previous month. Compared to the same period of the previous year in September exports fell by 3.4% on a decline in orders from the EU. Of particular concern are the orders from the part of the countries that use the euro, which fell by 9.1% compared with the same period last year.

Earlier, the euro rose against the dollar after the Greek parliament on the eve of yet approved a new package of austerity measures. "For" voted 153 out of 300 deputies - one of the necessary conditions for obtaining the next tranche of international aid, which would allow the country again to avoid a formal bankruptcy. The next (and last) condition - the approval of the budget for 2013, which is expected at the weekend.

Euro remained unchanged against the dollar after the ECB left rates unchanged at 0.75%. Now attention is focused on the markets of the press conference of the head of the Central Bank Mario Draghi.

The pound rose against the euro and the dollar after the Bank of England refrained from increasing its asset purchase program. As expected, today the Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.5%, and the size of asset purchase program - of 375 billion pounds. The last time the rate changed March 5, 2009, and increased QE by 50 billion pounds of 5 July 2012. Minutes of this meeting will be published on 21 November, while the central bank will release 14 November inflation report.

EUR/USD

Offers     $1.2840/60, $1.2820/25, $1.2785-800, $1.2760-70  

Bids  $1.2705/00, $1.2685/80, $1.2655/50, $1.2620/00

European stocks pared their advance, following yesterday’s biggest slide in two weeks, as carmakers dropped, offsetting results from Swiss Re Ltd. and Hermes International SCA that exceeded analysts’ estimates.

In Greece, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras obtained a parliamentary majority for a package of austerity measures needed to unlock further financial aid from the European Union.

The bill on pension, wage and benefit cuts was approved with 153 votes in favor in the 300-seat Parliament early today, according to acting speaker Athanasios Nakos. A total of 128 lawmakers voted against the bill, while 18 abstained and one member was absent.

The ECB will leave its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.75 percent, according to the median economist estimate. The Bank of England will hold its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, economists predicted before an announcement at 12 p.m. in London.

Swiss Re added 1.6 percent to 66.95 Swiss francs after reporting third-quarter net income of $2.18 billion, beating the average analyst estimate of $1.35 billion. The world’s second- biggest reinsurer said it will consider a special dividend if it fails to find an alternative way to deploy its excess capital.

Siemens advanced 3.7 percent to 81.78 euros after saying it plans to save 6 billion euros in two years as it prepares for lower profit in 2013. Siemens said it will cut costs by 5 billion euros, with an additional 1 billion euros from improving marketing and less complexity. The program will cost 1 billion euros in 2013, and profit will decline to as little as 4.5 billion euros next year from 5.18 billion euros in 2012.

FTSE 100 5,803.23 +11.60 +0.20%

CAC 40  3,419.9 +10.31 +0.30%

DAX 7,264.85 +32.02 +0.44%

Sold E4.763bln vs target E3.5bln-E4.5bln

E992mln of 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono; bid-to-cover 2.83 vs 1.98 previous

E3.04bln of new 4.50% Jan 2018 Bono; bid-to-cover 1.57

E731mln of 5.75% July 2032 Obligaciones; bid-to-cover 2.11

Sold 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono at average yield 3.66% vs 3.96% previous

Sold new 4.50% Jan 2018 Bono at average yield 4.68%

Sold 5.75% July 2032 Obligaciones at average yield 6.328%

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark poised for its biggest drop in six weeks, as investors turned their attention to the U.S. budget debate and China’s Communist Party began a meeting to choose new leaders.

Nikkei 225 8,837.15 -135.74 -1.51%

S&P/ASX 200 4,483.82 -32.64 -0.72%

Shanghai Composite 2,071.51 -34.22 -1.63%

Li & Fung Ltd., a supplier of clothes and toys that gets 60 percent of sales in the U.S., lost 2.9 percent in Hong Kong.

Canon Inc., a camera manufacturer that depends on Europe for almost a third of its sales, sank 2.5 percent in Tokyo after the European Commission cut its growth forecast for the monetary union.

Komatsu Ltd. dropped 2.2 percent after Japan’s machinery orders fell more than expected.

Yesterday, the dollar index rose to two-month high, as investors flocked to safer assets on concern that U.S. President Barack Obama will struggle to persuade Congress to avoid the so-called "financial cliff" after his historic re-election.

The euro fell to its weakest level in the last two months against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the crisis in the region affects Germany.

The U.S. currency weakened against the yen since Obama defeated Republican rival Mitt Romney, who is opposed to the current policy of the Federal Reserve System, which is based on stimulating the economy.

The euro fell against most major currencies, except the Norwegian krone against the fact that Greek lawmakers were ready to vote on the austerity measures required to receive international aid.

Also, the European Commission said that the euro zone economy is likely to grow by only 0.1% in 2013, compared to the vulnerable forecast at 1% increase. The committee lowered its forecast for growth in Germany to 0.8% from 1.7%.

Switzerland franc rose against the euro and fell against the dollar after the central bank said the country's foreign exchange reserves declined last month, which was the first time since February. Also published data showed that consumer price index rose in October, much less than expected.

Asian stocks advanced for a second day, with News Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. lifting the regional benchmark index on earnings that cheered investors, as U.S. President Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney to win a second term.

Nikkei 225 8,972.89 -2.26 -0.03%

Hang Seng 22,087.07 +142.64 +0.65%

S&P/ASX 200 4,516.46 +31.66 +0.71%

Shanghai Composite 2,105.73 -0.27 -0.01%

News Corp., the media company run by billionaire Rupert Murdoch, gained 3.2 percent in Sydney after reporting profit that topped estimates.

Nissan surged 4.1 percent after analysts said its earnings forecast was conservative and Chinese customers are returning to the carmaker’s dealerships.

Zijin Mining Group Co. climbed 3.6 percent in Hong Kong, pacing gains among gold producers as the precious metal rose on speculation the U.S. will continue monetary easing after Obama’s victory.

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate October 5.4% 5.5% 5.4%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed October 14.5 0.2 10.7

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current October 41.2 40.6 39.0

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook October 43.5 41.7

Change % Change Last

Oil $84.70 +0.26 +0.31%

Gold $1,718.80 +4.80 +0.28%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,972.89 -2.26 -0.03%

Hang Seng 22,087.07 +142.64 +0.65%

S&P/ASX 200 4,516.46 +31.66 +0.71%

Shanghai Composite 2,105.73 -0.27 -0.01%

FTSE 100 5,791.63 -93.27 -1.58%

CAC 40 3,409.59 -69.07 -1.99%

DAX 7,232.83 -144.93 -1.96%

Dow -312.95 12,932.73 -2.36%

Nasdaq -74.64 2,937.29 -2.48%

S&P -33.86 1,394.53 -2.37% 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2770 -0,34%

GBP/USD $1,5983 -0,08%

USD/CHF Chf0,9446 +0,20%

USD/JPY Y79,99 -0,45%

EUR/JPY Y102,15 -0,78%

GBP/JPY Y127,84 -0,52%

AUD/USD $1,0408 -0,25%

NZD/USD $0,8181 -1,08%

USD/CAD C$0,9967 +0,48%

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate October 5.4% 5.5% 5.4%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed October 14.5 0.2 10.7

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current October 41.2 40.6

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook October 43.5

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate October 2.9% 3.0%

07:00 Germany Trade Balance September 18.3 17.2

07:45 France Trade Balance, bln September -5.3 -5.0

09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods September -9.8 -8.9

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50%

12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75%

13:15 Canada Housing Starts October 220 215

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions September -1.3 -1.4

13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index September +0.2% +0.2%

13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -

13:30 U.S. International trade, bln September -44.2 -44.9

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 363 373

18:10 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -