CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-08-2018

Major US stock indexes fell slightly, which was caused by the fall of the commodities and stocks sector of companies sensitive to trade, as new trade tariffs came into effect in the trade war in the US.

In addition, investors assessed the US data. The report, published by the Ministry of Labor on Thursday, reflected a modest decline in initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the week ending August 18. Initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 210,000, which is 2,000 less than in the previous week (212,000). Economists had expected 215,000 people to apply for unemployment benefits.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that sales of new homes fell by 1.7 percent, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 units, the lowest level since October 2017. The pace of sales in June was revised to 638,000 units from 631,000 units. Economists predicted that sales of new homes, accounting for about 10 percent of sales in the housing market, increased to 645,000 units. The average price of a new house rose in July by 6.0 percent from June, to $ 328,700. In July, the market had 309,000 new homes (most since March 2009). This represents an increase of 2.0 percent relative to June.

Most components of DOW finished trading in the red (18 out of 30). Leader of growth were shares of Visa Inc. (V ,, + 0.63%). Outsider were shares of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, -2.09%).

All sectors of the S & P recorded a fall. The largest decline was in the commodity sector (-0.9%).

At closing:

Dow 25,643.66 -89.94 -0.35%

S & P 500 2,855.72 -6.10 -0.21%

Nasdaq 100 7,876.56 -12.54 -0.16%

A loss of momentum was recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors during the latest survey period. Payroll numbers meanwhile increased at the slowest pace since June 2017. On a more positive note, inflationary pressures moderated in August, reflecting the least marked rise in average cost burdens since the start of 2018.

At 55.0 in August, down from 55.7 in the previous month, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index signalled the weakest rise in private sector business activity since April. That said, the latest reading was still well above the 50.0 no-change value and broadly in line with its post-crisis average (55.2).

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.7 percent below the revised June rate of 638,000, but is 12.8 percent above the July 2017 estimate of 556,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2018 was $328,700. The average sales price was $394,300.

U.S. stock-index futures traded flat on Thursday as investors were cautious as the U.S. and China today implemanted new tariffs on $16 billion worth of each other's goods, despite ongoing trade talks.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

In the week ending August 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,750, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 215,500

Alibaba (BABA) reported Q1 FY 2019 earnings of $1.22 per share (versus $1.17 in Q1 FY 2019), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $1.24.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $12.229 bln (+61.2% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $12.021 bln.

BABA rose to $183.35 (+3.09%) in pre-market trading.

• Forward Guidance on Rates Aligned Markets' Views With ECB's Views

• June Communication Well Understood by Financial Markets

• Monetary Policy Must Stay Sufficiently Flexible

The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI edged higher from 54.3 in July to 54.4 in August, according to the flash reading (which is based on approximately 85% of usual replies). The rise signalled a marginal acceleration of output growth during the month. However, the increase in output was the third-weakest since January 2017 and markedly lower than the expansions seen earlier in the year. Although growth rates improved slightly in manufacturing and services, both remained among the weakest seen for at least one-and-a-half years.

At 55.1 in August, up from 54.4 in the previous month, the IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index remained above the crucial 50.0 nochange mark for a twenty-sixth month in a row.

Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Sam Teague, Economist at IHS Markit said: "Output growth across the French private sector ticked up to a four-month high in August, with both the service and manufacturing sectors seeing stronger expansions. Robust domestic client demand, alongside a renewed upturn in exports provided stimulus for the latest acceleration in growth".

Adjusted for seasonality, the level of private sector output in the eurozone's largest member state rose markedly, supported by stronger growth of new business and driving an acceleration in the rate of job creation.

The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index registered 55.7 in August, up from 55.0 in July and its highest reading since February. An acceleration in the rate of service sector business activity growth to a six-month high was the driving factor behind the improved performance midway through the third quarter. Manufacturing output continued to increase strongly and at a rate that was unchanged from that seen in July.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1668 (4111)

$1.1658 (894)

$1.1643 (5197)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1565

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1502 (5324)

$1.1466 (10546)

$1.1427 (4473)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 136377 contracts (according to data from August, 22) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (10546);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3020 (3405)

$1.2996 (912)

$1.2962 (621)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2882

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2829 (2997)

$1.2798 (2590)

$1.2763 (1034)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 7 is 35961 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (3405);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 33206 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (2997);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.90 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 22.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

I have asked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures and expropriations and the large scale killing of farmers. "South African Government is now seizing land from white farmers."

• Staff Revised Up Slightly Expectation for 2018, 2019 GDP Growth

• Revised Up Slightly Unemployment Rate Forecast Over Next Few Quarters

• Saw Inflation Close to 2% Over Medium Term

• GDP, Unemployment, Inflation Risks As Balanced

• Officials Agreed Labor Market Strengthened Since June

• Businesses In Several Districts Reported More Scope To Raise Prices

• A Few Officials Saw Downside Risk In Fading of Fiscal Stimulus

• Some Officials Said Asset Prices Elevated, Corporate Borrowing Remained Easy

• Officials Generally Saw Monetary Policy As Still Accommodative

• Officials Divided Over Risks Posed By Inverted Yield Curve

• Chairman Suggested Discussing Operating Framework in Fall

• Officials Viewed Risks To Outlook As Balanced

• Recent Data Didn't Significantly Alter Officials' Outlook For Economy

• Several Officials Saw 2Q GDP Boosted By Transitory Factors

• Officials See GDP Growth Slowing In Second Half Of Year

• Business Contacts Reported Upward Price Pressures From Tariffs

• Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI increases slightly to 52.5 in August, from 52.3 in July

• Input and output price inflation at multi-year highs

• Overall demand improves, but export orders fail to rise for a third straight month

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "August flash data extended the current growth cycle in Japan's manufacturing sector to two years, the longest uninterrupted stretch of expansion since the global financial crisis. "New orders rose at a sharper rate, encouraging a solid pace of output growth and prompting businesses to raise input purchasing. That said, with export orders declining, this signalled that the latest expansionary PMI reading was underpinned by strength in the domestic market. "Indeed, weaker international sales weighed on business confidence, with panellists citing potential trade conflicts as a key risk to their outlook over the coming year. Positive sentiment eased to the lowest level since November 2016."