CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 24-08-2018

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Friday, as investors awaited a speech from the Fed's chairman Jerome Powell for clues regarding the further direction of monetary policy.

Global Stocks:

• The Economic Case For What The Fed Has To Do Is Pretty Clear

• Still Not Seeing Huge Impact Yet From Tariffs

• Fed Essentially At Job, Inflation Targets

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $4.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $246.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 0.7 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.0 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $4.6 billion or 5.3 percent to $82.8 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $250.8 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent June increase. Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $1.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $83.9 billion.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Altria (MO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

• 2018 Will Be Good Year, But Growth Will Slow In 2019, 2020

• Economy Is In Very Good Shape

• Inflation Low, If It Spiked Fed Could Easily Contain

• Not Seeing Much Risk On Inflation, Financial Stability

• Keeping Jobless Rate Very Low Can Do Good Things For The Economy

HP (HPQ) reported Q3 FY 2018 earnings of $0.52 per share (versus $0.43 in Q3 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $0.51.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $14.586 bln (+11.7% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $14.288 bln.

The company also issued EPS forecasts for Q4 and FY2018 of a respective $0.52-0.55 (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $0.53) and $2.00-2.03 (versus its prior guidance of 1.97-$2.02 and analysts' consensus estimate of $2.00).

HPQ fell to $23.89 (-3.00%) in pre-market trading.

The number of mortgage approvals by the main high street banks in July fell by 0.8 per cent compared to the same month a year earlier. Within this, remortgaging approvals were 2.8 per cent higher than for the same period a year earlier. There was a fall in house purchase and other secured borrowing of 0.6 per cent and 11.7 per cent respectively.

Credit card spending was 8.1 per cent higher than a year earlier, with outstanding levels on card borrowing growing by 5.3 per cent over the year. Outstanding overdraft borrowing was 4 per cent lower compared to the same time last year.

Personal deposits grew by 1.2 per cent in the last 12 months. Deposits held in instant access accounts were 3.8 per cent higher than a year earlier.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1684 (2440)

$1.1652 (2931)

$1.1606 (5358)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1570

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1479 (5481)

$1.1449 (10644)

$1.1414 (4496)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 136949 contracts (according to data from August, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (10644);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2984 (3415)

$1.2950 (1116)

$1.2897 (674)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2836

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2775 (3037)

$1.2754 (2671)

$1.2727 (1031)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 7 is 36613 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (3415);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 33391 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (3037);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.91 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 23.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Consumer prices in Japan were up 0.9 percent on year in July, according to rttnews.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent but was up from 0.7 percent in June.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, advanced an annual 0.8 percent - unchanged from the previous month but missing forecasts for 0.9 percent.

On a monthly basis, overall inflation was up 0.3 percent, while core CPI added 0.1 percent.

Negotiations between the two countries ended, as the trade war intensified on Thursday with the intensification of the next round of reciprocal tariffs worth $ 16 billion

As a safe haven currency, the dollar has benefited from international trade fears in recent months.

The focus of investors is now the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which will be held later today at the annual meeting of central banks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

"I think that Powell, regardless of political pressure, can continue raising rates while the US economy continues to expand," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Securities.

• Trade Tariff Impact So Far Is Modest

• Job Market Is Strong, Consumers Are Able to Spend

• Confident Fed Will Remain Apolitical

• Flatter Yield Curve Suggests Medium-Term Growth to Be Slower

• Expects Fed Can Hike Rates Without Inverting Yield Curve

For the July 2018 year, values are actual and compared with the July 2017 year:

• Annual goods exports rose $5.7 billion (11 percent) to $56.2 billion.

• Annual goods imports rose $6.9 billion (13 percent) to $60.7 billion.

• The annual trade balance for the year ended July 2018 was a $4.4 billion deficit (7.9 percent of exports), the widest annual deficit since March 2009.

For the month of July 2018 values are actual and compared with July 2017:

• Goods exports rose $729 million (16 percent) to $5.3 billion, a new total export high for a July month.

• Goods imports rose $964 million (21 percent) to $5.5 billion. This is the second highest imports value of any month; the highest was in November 2017.

• The monthly trade balance was a deficit of $143 million (2.7 percent of exports). In the last five July months there has been one surplus (2017) and four deficits.

• Says Fed Officials Will Ignore Political Pressure or Attacks

The German economy continues to grow. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release of 14 August 2018, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5% - upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment - in the second quarter of 2018 compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2018, GDP growth had been slightly smaller (0.4%).

The quarter-on-quarter comparison following price, seasonal and calendar adjustment shows that, on the use side of the gross domestic product, positive contributions mainly came from domestic demand. The final consumption expenditure of households rose by 0.3% and government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.6% on the previous quarter. Capital formation was higher, too. Fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment increased by 0.3% and in construction by 0.6% on the first quarter of 2018. Overall, domestic uses increased markedly by 0.9% compared with the first three months of the year.