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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-11-2012
The euro strengthened to its highest level in three weeks against the dollar after data showed that the index of German business confidence rose in November, boosting optimism about the fact that Europe's largest economy is starting to gain momentum.
The single currency was headed for a weekly gain in comparison with most of its 16 major counterparts on speculation that policy makers will agree to help Greece at a meeting to be held on Monday, November 26.
Analysts note that the single currency could rise to its September high against the dollar at 1.3172, but first is to overcome the level of $ 1.3021, which is the highest level since Oct. 31. Analysts Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen in Frankfurt including Ralf Umlauf wrote in a note to clients.
The yen strengthened against the dollar as the fact that the technical indicators show that the decline this week, may have been too quick.
Note that the currency of Japan continues to be headed for the second weekly decline against the dollar as the opposition leader Shinzo Abe, who is expected to become the next prime minister after the elections on 16 December, and will increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to add stimulus measures that would tend to weaken the yen.
The pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar, registering with the first weekly rise in a month, after a report from the British Bankers' Association showed that the number of mortgage approvals rose to nine-month high in October.
European stocks climbed, with the benchmark index completing its biggest weekly gain in almost a year, as German business confidence rose and investors watched Black Friday sales to gauge prospects for U.S. holiday shopping.
Outotec Oyj surged 6.3 percent after predicting an increase in its operating-profit margin in 2013. European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. (EAD) declined 1.4 percent after a report that Germany will buy shares in the world’s largest maker of civil aircraft from Франце
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) added 0.6 percent to 273.33 in London. The gauge jumped 4 percent this week, the most since Dec. 2, as U.S. and Chinese data added to signs the global economy is on the mend and optimism grew that American lawmakers will reach a budget compromise.
The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index for Germany, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 101.4 in November from 100 in October. Economists predicted a drop to 99.5. French business confidence increased from the lowest in more than three years this month, a separate report showed.
National benchmark indexes climbed in 16 of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,819.14 +28.11 +0.49% CAC 40 3,528 +30.58 +0.87% DAX 7,309.13 +64.14 +0.89%
Euro-area finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting in Brussels on Nov. 26 to discuss unlocking the next installment of aid to Greece. Their meeting this week failed to produce a decision as creditors led by Germany refused to bring fresh money or offer debt relief.
Iliad SA (ILD), the mobile operator that drove prices down in France with a 2-euros-a-month offering, climbed 4.1 percent to 133.65 euros, the highest since it sold shares to the public in 2004. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight, a recommendation similar to buy, from equal weight.
Valeo SA (FR), France’s second-biggest car-parts maker, gained 3.4 percent to 35.45 euros. The stock was raised to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Arkema SA (AKE) rose 2.4 percent to 76.67 euros after Chief Executive Officer Thierry Le Henaff said he expects demand in China to grow at a good pace after the Chinese new year.
Amadeus IT Holding SA (AMS) lost 2.6 percent to 18.00 euros, falling for the eighth day. HSBC Holdings Plc owns more than 400 million euros ($515 million) of Amadeus IT Holding shares after failing to find buyers for a stake in the travel reservations company. HSBC, which attempted to place a block of Amadeus shares last week, holds 5.4 percent of the company, the bank said in a filing to the Spanish financial regulator this week.
Fraport AG, owner of the Frankfurt airport, retreated 2.3 percent to 42.60 euros. The stock was cut to underweight, the equivalent of sell, from neutral at HSBC Holdings Plc.
The cost of oil has increased, since the index of German business confidence unexpectedly rose in November to its lowest level in two and a half years, signaling that Europe's largest economy is starting to gain momentum.
Futures climbed as much as 1.3%, pulling the rise of the euro and shares, as the business climate index from the Munich institute Ifo, the index rose to 101.4 from 100 in October. Note that economists had forecast a drop to 99.5.
Also on the rise in oil prices has affected reported that Israeli troops opened fire on Palestinians near the Gaza Strip, thus confirming the fact that the truce was violated.
Note that Hamas and Israel seek to strengthen the cease-fire, which took effect at 9 pm local time on November 21 and was declared Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Amr and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Recall that futures touched a high of $ 89.80 on November 19, while showing the highest intraday level since Oct. 22, on concern that the violence in the Gaza Strip will be distributed in violation of the disruptions in the supply of the surrounding region.
December futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) vyrsola to 87.98 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
January futures price of North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose 51 cents to $ 110.89 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.
During most of the trading session, gold prices showed a slight increase, which was due to positive data presented by Germany and hopes that Greece's creditors are close to reaching an agreement on the level of debt. But over the last few hours the situation has changed, and the price of gold has risen sharply, breaking the mark of $ 1.745 per ounce and setting a new monthly high. This trend was due to the fact that according to information EU summit on the budget, ended without agreement, and is expected to continue into January. Note that 26 voted against, and for only one representative. It is learned that the key issues on which there was disagreement was the size of the budget. But despite that achieving agreement on the EU budget is still possible, but further cost reductions
December futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1748.70 dollars per ounce.
The British pound is growing amid global risk appetite and the rise of stock markets in Europe and the U.S.. Pair added more than 60 pips and is currently trading at $ 1.5985/90
After the publication of the statistics unit of Canada's consumer price index pair USD / CAD updated intraday low CAD0.9955.
In October, the Canadian inflation rose by 0.1% (m / m and y / y) vs. 1.1% expected and 0.2%. Bank of Canada CPI rose by 1.3% against expectations of 1.2%.
U.S. stock futures rose amid easing concern about Europe’s economy as German business confidence unexpectedly climbed.
Global Stocks:
Hang Seng 21,913.98 +170.78 +0.79%
Shanghai Composite 2,027.38 +11.77 +0.58%
FTSE 5,808.37 +17.34 +0.30%
CAC 3,505.28 +7.06 +0.20%
DAX 7,267.74 +22.75 +0.31%
Crude oil $87.32 -0.07%
Gold $1732.30 + 0.24%
- 3-yearr tenders firmed feedback loop btw banks/states
- Must not overburden monetary policy
- Crisis blurred boundaries between monpol/fiscal pol
- Monpol intervention may delay governmnt reforms
- Control and liability must be kept in balance in EMU
- Bailouts have increased joint liability, not control
- Must target exaggerations before they threaten stab.
- Single supervisor can help prevent future crises
- Must risk-weight sovereign bonds in bank capital
- Should limit bank exposure to individual sovereigns
Argus is lowering Intel (INTC) tgt to $25 from $30.
EUR/USD $1.2750, $1.2975, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y81.40, Y81.50, Y82.50
AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0400
07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (finally) Quarter III +0.2% +0.2% +0.2%
07:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (finally) Quarter III +0.4% +0.4% +0.9%
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate November 100.0 99.6 101.4
09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment November 107.2 106.3 108.1
09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations November 93.2 93.0 95.2
09:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -
09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals October 31.2 32.3 33.0
The euro strengthened to the highest level in three weeks versus the dollar after data showed German business confidence rose in November, boosting optimism that Europe’s biggest economy is weathering the region’s slowdown.
The 17-nation shared currency headed for a weekly gain versus most of its 16 major peers. It was poised to advance the most against the yen on speculation Europe’s policy makers will agree to keep aid flowing to Greece when they meet in three days’ time.
The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 101.4 from 100 in October for its first gain in eight months. Economists predicted a drop to 99.5 according to the median of 48 forecasts in a survey.
Euro-region finance ministers will meet on Nov. 26 to discuss ways to unlock international loans for Greece and prevent it from dropping out of the shared currency. The nation has been negotiating with euro-area politicians and the International Monetary Fund over the steps needed to qualify for the release of loan installments frozen since June.
The Japanese currency strengthened against the dollar as a technical indicator signaled its decline this week may have been too rapid.
Japan’s currency still headed for a second weekly decline against the dollar as opposition leader Shinzo Abe, who is favored to become the country’s next prime minister after elections on Dec. 16, increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to add to stimulus measures that tend to weaken the yen.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair shows growth, and is now trading at $ 1.2915, which is the maximum value
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair set a high at $ 1.5965 and then fell to $ 1.5926, and now is at $ 1.5935
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair is trading in a range of mixed Y82.05 - Y82.38
At 13:30 GMT in Canada released the consumer price index and the core consumer price index from the Bank of Canada in October.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3000, $1.2980/85, $1.2940/50, $1.2920/25
Bids $1.2870/50, $1.2810/00, $1.2785/80, $1.2765/60, $1.2740/30
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6020, $1.6000, $1.5980, $1.5950/55
Bids $1.5920, $1.5900, $1.5880
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0500, $1.0450
Bids $1.0380/75, $1.0370, $1.0355/50, $1.0320/15
EUR/JPY
Offers Y107.00, Y106.50
Bids Y107.75/70, Y105.50, Y105.20, Y105.05/00, Y104.80
USD/JPY
Offers Y83.00, Y82.50/55, Y82.35/30
Bids Y82.00, Y81.50, Y81.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8120
Bids stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005/00
Most European stocks declined, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index heading for its biggest weekly rally in more than nine months, as German business confidence climbed, offsetting a deadlock over the region’s budget.
The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index for Germany, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 101.4 in November from 100 in October. Economists predicted a drop to 99.5. French business confidence increased from the lowest in more than three years this month, a separate report showed.
Divisions between rich and poor countries flared over the European Union’s next seven-year budget, leading German Chancellor Angela Merkel to rule out an accord until the new year.
Euro-area finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting in Brussels on Nov. 26 to discuss unlocking the next installment of aid to Greece. Their meeting this week failed to produce a decision as creditors led by Germany refused to bring fresh money or offer debt relief.
Outotec jumped 6.9 percent to 39.26 euros, the biggest gain in two months. The Finnish maker of mining machinery said its sales and operating margin will increase in 2013, driven by a strong order book, the current market outlook and customer tendering activity. The company also said it aims to raise its services revenue to 1 billion euros per year by the end of 2017.
EADS dropped 2 percent to 24.75 euros, the lowest since Oct. 1. The German government will buy shares in EADS from France, Handelsblatt reported, citing unidentified German government sources. German, and French governments aim to have 12 percent ownership each in EADS, while Spain will hold a 5 percent stake, according to Handelsblatt.
FTSE 100 5,789.62 -1.41 -0.02%
CAC 40 3,491.72 -6.50 -0.19%
DAX 7,233.22 -11.77 -0.16%
The growth of the GBP / USD was limited to a maximum of $ 1.5967 before opening in London, after which prices fell back to 40 points, reaching a low of $ 1.5928, being flat.
Pound did not give such an active response to the euro positive data on German IFO, and after the release rate of approved applications for mortgage BBA in Britain which grew by 31.2 thousand to 33.0 thousand (forecast 32.3 million), the pair is still traded at around $ 1.5930.
- Still stand ready to implement OMT
- Only completing union will fully restore confidence
EEUR/USD $1.2750, $1.2975, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y81.40, Y81.50, Y82.50
AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0400
Asian stocks rose, led by gains in rare-earth companies, and as Taiwan shares surged after the island’s finance minister said government-controlled funds should buy equities at lows. Japanese markets are closed today.
Nikkei 225 Closed
Hang Seng 21,857.91 +114.71 +0.53%
S&P/ASX 200 4,413 -0.07 0.00%
Shanghai Composite 2,034.04 +18.43 +0.91%
Lynas Corp., builder of the largest rare-earth refinery in Malaysia, climbed 5.5 percent in Sydney as it prepares to start production in the Southeast Asian country.
China Rare Earth Holdings Ltd. rose 4.1 percent in Hong Kong after a report the government plans to provide subsidies to the industry.
The Taiex Index jumped 2.7 percent in Taipei, leading gains among the region’s benchmark indexes.
The euro rose to a two-week high against the dollar after a report showed that China's manufacturing index rose this month, adding evidence that the second-largest economy is gaining momentum. According to preliminary data, this index increased in November to the level of 50.4, compared with the final value at the level of 49.5 in October.
The single currency rose against all but two of its 16 major counterparts as the data showed that business activity in the manufacturing rose in November more than economists forecast. At the same time, the composite index of purchasing managers in the euro area in the services sector and in the manufacturing industry amounted to 45.8, up from 45.7 in October, while analysts had expected no change.
The yen fell on speculation that the Japanese elections next month will go to the power of the opposition party, which advocates a more aggressive monetary easing.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair demonstrated steady growth, and is now trading at $ 1.2890, which is the maximum value
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair set a high at $ 1.5980, then dropped, and is now at around $ 1.5955
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to a maximum of Y82.85, but then dropped to Y82.54
At 13:30 GMT in Canada will change in the volume of retail sales, the change in retail sales excluding auto sales for September. At 15:00 GMT Eurozone publish indicator of consumer confidence for November.
U.S. celebrates Thanksgiving
Japan celebrate rewarding work
Asian stocks gained, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in two weeks, on signs the U.S. jobs markets is stabilizing and Chinese manufacturing is recovering.
Companies that do business with China gained. The nation’s manufacturing may expand for the first time in 13 months in November, according to a preliminary survey released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics.
Nikkei 225 9,366.8 +144.28 +1.56%
S&P/ASX 200 4,413.07 +43.57 +1.00%
Shanghai Composite 2,015.61 -14.71 -0.72%
BHP Billiton Ltd., a mining company that counts China as its biggest market, gained 1 percent in Sydney.
Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets about 44 percent of sales from North America, climbed 3.5 percent as the weakened yen and U.S. claims for jobless benefits fell.
Sharp Corp. advanced 4.3 percent after Japan’s largest maker of liquid-crystal displays said it has found customers for panels used in smartphones.
European stocks advanced for a fourth day, posting the longest winning streak in five weeks, after a report signaled Chinese manufacturing expanded for the first time in 13 months.
SABMiller Plc (SAB), the world’s second-largest brewer, jumped the most in 13 months after reporting first-half profit that beat estimates. Daily Mail & General Trust Plc (DMGO), publisher of Britain’s Daily Mail newspaper, surged the most in three years after announcing a share buyback. Swedbank AB (SWEDA), Sweden’s third- biggest bank, dropped 1.3 percent.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.6 percent to 271.68, a two-week high, at 3:35 p.m. in London.
A PMI released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed a preliminary reading of 50.4 for November, adding to signs that growth in the world’s second-largest economy is rebounding after a seven-quarter slowdown. That compared with a final level of 49.5 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Euro-area factory output contracted less than economists had estimated, another Markit report showed. The measure of manufacturing climbed to 46.2 this month from 45.4 in October. That beat the average economist estimate of 45.6. Separate manufacturing PMIs for Germany and France, Europe’s two biggest economies, also beat projections.
National benchmark indexes climbed in all of the 18 western-European markets.
FTSE 100 5,788.96 +36.93 +0.64 CAC 40 3,497.74 +20.38 +0.59% DAX 7,243.66 +58.95 +0.82%
SABMiller advanced 6.2 percent to 2,795 pence, for the biggest increase since October 2011. Earnings before interest, taxes and amortization, excluding some items, rose 17 percent to $3.17 billion, the company said. That compared with the $3.1 billion median estimate of analysts.
Daily Mail climbed 11 percent to 525.5 pence, heading toward the biggest rally since September 2009. The company said it will buy back shares for as much as as much as 100 million pounds ($160 million). Daily Mail also said its net debt dropped to 613 million pounds in the year ended Sept. 30, from 719 million pounds 12 months earlier.
Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) climbed 1.6 percent to 2.53 euros, the highest price since Aug. 28, as Danske Bank A/S raised the stock to buy from sell and more than doubled its price estimate to 2.90 euros. Danske said Nokia’s 2013 outlook continues to improve.
EasyJet Plc (EZJ) added 1.8 percent to 694 pence after Barclays Plc raised Europe’s second-biggest discount airline to equal weight, a recommendation similar to hold, from underweight, saying the company improved both “revenue and non-fuel cost fundamentals.”
Air France-KLM (AF) Group advanced 2.6 percent to 6.78 euros and Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA) rose 4.3 percent to 12.45 euros. Barclays raised its price estimates for the airlines by 58 percent to 6.30 euros and 12 percent to 11.50 euros, respectively, citing lower restructuring risk.
00:00 Japan Bank holiday -
The yen was supported as technical indicators signaled its recent decline may have been too rapid. The currency’s 14-day relative strength index against the dollar was at 27, its fifth- straight day below the 30 level that some traders see as a sign an asset is about to change direction. Against the euro, it was at 31.
Japan’s currency pared a weekly decline that comes as opposition leader Shinzo Abe, who is favored to become the country’s next prime minister after elections on Dec. 16, increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to add to stimulus measures that tend to weaken the yen. Japan’s Abe, who heads the opposition Liberal Democratic Party, said intervention to weaken the yen is not effective, especially if the country acts alone in the currency market, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing an interview yesterday. The BOJ should work to increase the nation’s monetary base and set a clear inflation target, the newspaper quoted Abe as saying.
The euro traded near its highest level in three weeks on prospects finance ministers will agree on an aid package for Greece next week, even after a report showed Europe’s common currency area slipped back into recession. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services in the euro zone was at 45.8 in November compared with 45.7 in October, London-based Markit Economics said yesterday. A report last week showed the region’s gross domestic product slipped for a second-straight period in the third quarter, the first back-to-back drop since 2009.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.2865-85.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5950.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y82.15.
Change % Change Last
Oil 87.13 -0.25 -0.29%
Gold 1,730.80 +2.60 +0.15%Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,366.8 +144.28 +1.56%
S&P/ASX 200 4,413.07 +43.57 +1.00%
Shanghai Composite 2,015.61 -14.71 -0.72%
FTSE 100 5,788.96 +36.93 +0.64
CAC 40 3,497.74 +20.38 +0.59%
DAX 7,243.66 +58.95 +0.82%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2884 +0,53%
GBP/USD $1,5940 -0,08%
USD/CHF Chf0,9350 -0,09%
USD/JPY Y82,46 -0,06%
EUR/JPY Y106,23 +0,32%
GBP/JPY Y131,41 -0,16%
AUD/USD $1,0388 +0,18%
NZD/USD $0,8157 +0,13%
USD/CAD C$0,9970 +0,08%
00:00 Japan Bank holiday -
07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (finally) Quarter III +0.2% +0.2%
07:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (finally) Quarter III +0.4% +0.4%
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate November 100.0 99.6
09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment November 107.3 106.3
09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations November 93.2 93.0
09:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -
09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals October 31.2 32.3
13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m October +0.2% +0.2%
13:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y October +1.2% +1.0%
13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m October +0.2% +0.3%
13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y October +1.3% +1.2%
14:00 Belgium Business Climate November -13.5 -13.2
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