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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 28-11-2012
The Dollar Index fell for the first time in three days as comments from U.S. lawmakers fueled optimism the so-called fiscal cliff will be avoided.
Equities reversed declines as Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said he is optimistic lawmakers engaged in budget talks can “avert this crisis sooner rather than later.” He made his remarks to reporters, while saying he continues to oppose the expiration of tax cuts for top earners and Democrats need to get “serious” on budget cuts. Obama said separately at the White House, “My hope is to get this done before Christmas.”
The yen rose to a one-week high against the dollar as technical indicators signaled its recent decline may have been excessive.
The euro pared losses against the greenback as stocks rebounded and amid speculation investors will accept Greece repurchasing its own bonds at below market prices. The euro pared losses as Greece said it would unveil plans next week to tender for bonds issued in its 100 billion-euro ($129 billion) restructuring this year. The prices are “expected to be no higher than those at the close” on Nov. 23, euro-area finance ministers said yesterday. Those notes trade at about 29.5 cents on the euro, up from 28.1 percent last week, according to brokerage Exotix Ltd. in London.
Again became a catalyst dollar fallen after the speech Republican Boehner, Fed's Evans, as well as the background of confidence in reaching an agreement on the issue of "financial cliff" in the near future, as President Obama "for Christmas."
Before the release of the report Beige Book pair is trading at $ 1.2935.
European stocks were little changed as investors assessed conflicting reports about the progress of U.S. budget negotiations aimed at avoiding automatic tax increases and spending cuts from coming into force next year.
Boehner told reporters in Washington that politicians will continue their discussions “sooner rather than later” to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.
Erskine Bowles, the co-chairman of Obama’s 2010 fiscal commission said it was unlikely the president and Congress will reach an agreement by the end of this year. “I’m really worried,” Bowles told reporters in Washington. “I believe the probability is we’re going over the cliff.”
Reid, speaking to reporters in Washington, said that following a Nov. 16 White House meeting, Republicans backed away from their openness to considering new tax revenue as part of the budget.
National benchmark indexes retreated in 11 of the 18 western-European markets. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 0.4 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added less than 0.1 percent. Germany’s DAX advanced 0.2 percent.
Celesio retreated 2.6 percent to 12.94 euros after Haniel, sold 100 million euros ($129 million) of stock in the drug wholesaler. The closely held German investment company sold about 7.9 million shares at 12.60 euros apiece.
Metro declined 3.7 percent to 21.32 euros as Haniel said it will reduce its stake in Germany’s largest retailer to 30 percent from 34.2 percent within 18 months. Haniel also plans to raise about 150 million euros by selling non-strategic assets to help reduce net borrowing below 2 billion euros.
Nokia Oyj lost 1 percent to 2.54 euros. The mobile-phone maker’s American Depository Receipts lost 5.7 percent in New York yesterday after Kantar Worldpanel ComTech reported that Apple Inc.’s iPhone more than doubled its U.S. market share to 48 percent over the 12-week period ended Oct. 28.
Raiffeisen Bank International AG retreated 5 percent to 31.51 euros after eastern Europe’s second-biggest lender reported third-quarter net income of 141 million euros. That missed the average analyst estimate of 148 million euros.
Nestle climbed 1.2 percent to 60.60 francs after forming a joint venture with Chi-Med to develop gastro-intestinal treatments based on traditional Chinese medicines. Nestle Health Science and Chi-Med will each own half of Nutrition Science Partners Ltd., the companies said in a statement today.
-- SFR Exchange Rate Is Still High
-- Rejects sovereign wealth fund to manage SNB FX reserves
-- Says need prudent provisioning policy to help capital base
-- Read full story on MNI Mainwire
Obama wants an agreement was reached before Christmas
Obama is ready to sign a bill that will free the middle class from tax increases
It is ready, willing and able to resolve fiscal problems
Oil dropped to the lowest level in more than a week as concern mounted that negotiations to address the U.S. budget deficit will fail.
Futures decreased as much as 2.1 percent after U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said yesterday he was disappointed with progress made during talks over $607 billion in tax gains and spending cuts, the so-called fiscal cliff, set to begin in January. Crude rebounded from the day’s lows after an Energy Department report showed supplies unexpectedly fell last week.
Crude supplies declined 347,000 barrels to 374.1 million in the seven days ended Nov. 23. They were forecast to rise 350,000 barrels, according to the median estimate of 11 analysts.
President Barack Obama, a Democrat, wants to lean more heavily on tax increases for top earners and less on structural changes to Medicare and Medicaid benefits. House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican, has expressed openness to higher revenue if accompanied by an overhaul of the tax code and significant reductions in future spending on entitlement programs.
Crude oil for January delivery touched $85.36, the lowest level since Nov. 16. Prices have fallen 13 percent this year.
Brent oil for January settlement declined 86 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $109.01 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Gold prices declined by 1.7%, as the euphoria over Greece and investors was again reminded of the threat of the U.S. financial crisis.
Markets are waiting for the White House and Congress will agree on how to prevent financial crisis, manifested in reduced costs and increased taxes by $ 600 billion, which will automatically enter into force early next year if the politicians do not agree.
The threat of a recession in the U.S. economy supports the gold price, but the rise of the dollar prevents them from increasing.
Stocks of the world's largest exchange-traded fund backed by gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust on Tuesday rose to a record 1.345,813 tons and reserves of the largest secured silver ETF iShares Silver Trust are close to a minimum of two months 9.818,07 tons.
December futures price of gold on COMEX today fell to 1705.50 dollars per ounce.
U.S. stock futures fell as wrangling over the federal budget continued and investors awaited a report that may show growth in new-home sales slowed.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 9,308.35 -114.95 -1.22%
Hang Seng 21,708.98 -135.05 -0.62%
Shanghai Composite 1,973.52 -17.64 -0.89%
FTSE 5,776.21 -23.50 -0.41%
CAC 3,486.66 -15.47 -0.44%
DAX 7,294.89 -37.44 -0.51%
Crude oil $86.26 -1.06%
Gold $1714.00 -1.62%
Google (GOOG) was initiated with Outperform at Cowen.
EUR/USD $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2935, $1.2940, $1.2945, $1.3000, $1.2625-1.3160
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y81.55, Y82.00, Y82.25
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0340Data
00:30 Australia Construction Work Done Quarter III -0.2% +2.2% +1.7%
09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y October +3.0% +2.8% +3.9%
13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) November 0.0% -0.1%
13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) November +2.0% +1.9%
The yen rose to one-week high against the dollar, as U.S. lawmakers try to agree on a solution to the problem of so-called "financial cliff", the essence of which spending cuts and tax increases, increased demand for assets seekers.
Japan's currency has strengthened, at least 0.2% against all 16 major currencies, after the leader of the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate, Harry Reid said, "disappointed" at the lack of progress in the negotiations on avoiding a "financial cliff" .
Euro was down against the yen ahead of a report on Germany, which showed that consumer prices fell in November by 0.1%, in line with forecasts of many economists. After the publication of these data fall accelerated. Also released today data on the euro area showed that the growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3, which the ECB uses as an indicator of future inflation, rose in October to a level of 3.8, compared with a revised downward estimates for the previous month at around 2 , 6%. At the same time, economists expect this figure to drop 2.8%.
The dollar index, which is used to track the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partners, rose by 0.1% to 80.488, registering growth of the third session in a row.
EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair dropped sharply, setting all-time low of $ 1.2890, near which now trades
GBP/USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.5965
USD/JPY: during the European session is around Y81.70-Y81.95
At 15:00 GMT the U.S. are data on the volume of sales in the primary market in October. At 15:30 GMT the U.S. will know about the level of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy in November. At 17:15 GMT in Switzerland of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan make a speech. Finish the day at 23:50 GMT Japanese data on Retail Sales for October.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3050, $1.3030, $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2940-50
Bids $1.2910, $1.2890/80, $1.2860
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6140/50, $1.6125, $1.6075/85, $1.6060
Bids $1.6000, $1.5980, $1.5960/50, $1.5900
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0525, $1.0490
Bids $1.0420, $1.0400, $1.0355/50
EUR/JPY
Offers Y107.00, Y106.70/75, Y106.50, Y106.20
Bids Y105.20, Y105.05/00, Y104.80, Y104.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y82.70, Y82.60/65, Y82.50, Y82.40, Y82.00
Bids Y81.70, Y81.60/50, Y81.20, Y81.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8165, stg0.8115/20, stg0.8100/05
Bids stg0.8060, stg0.8040/35, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005/00
Continues to have a negative impact on the markets of Europe threat of increased state debt of the USA, which could lead to a recession and rising unemployment.
The Government of Portugal after the other members of the EU in the Tuesday, November 27 to adopt a budget for 2013, which implies a decline in the cost of austerity.
FTSE 100 5,783.6 -16.11 -0.28%
CAC 40 3,491.43 -10.70 -0.31%
DAX 7,321.36 -10.97 -0.15%
Share prices of Europe's largest drug wholesaler Celesio AG fell 2.5%, the German retailer Metro AG - by 2.2%.
German Franz Haniel & Cie GmbH has announced its intention to reduce its stake in Celesio to 50% from 54.6%, in the Metro - to 30% from 30.4%.
Shares of Swiss Life Holding AG lost 1.7%. Capitalization of Nokia Oyj fell by 2.4%.
EUR/USD $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2935, $1.2940, $1.2945, $1.3000, $1.2625-1.3160
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y81.55, Y82.00, Y82.25
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0340
Asian stocks fell, with a regional benchmark index headed for its first loss in six days, as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said failure to prevent the so-called fiscal cliff in the U.S. would increase the risk of a global recession.
Nikkei 225 9,308.35 -114.95 -1.22%
S&P/ASX 200 4,447.31 -9.52 -0.21%
Shanghai Composite 1,973.52 -17.64 -0.89%
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, sank 1 percent in Sydney, leading losses among companies with earnings closely tied to economic growth.
Komatsu Ltd., which gets about a quarter of its sales in the U.S., fell 1.7 percent.
Hulic Co. tumbled 11 percent after the Japanese real-estate operator said it plans a share sale.
The euro fell from the highest this month against the dollar on concern a deal for Greece to buy back its bonds may falter, holding up disbursements of bailout funds to the nation.
The dollar extended gains against major counterparts after consumer confidence rose to the highest in more than four years. Euro-area finance chiefs and the International Monetary Fund said they would cut Greece’s interest rates and give it more time to pay back rescue loans after the repurchase of government debt.
In the latest bid to keep the 17-nation euro intact, the lawmakers cut the rates on bailout loans, suspended interest payments for a decade, gave Greece more time to repay and engineered a Greek bond buyback. The country was also cleared to receive a 34.4 billion-euro ($44.7 billion) loan installment in December.
The U.S. currency will appreciate against all of its Group of 10 counterparts except the Canadian dollar by 2014, as America’s economy expands 2 percent, more than the 1.26 percent average. And as the U.S. economy shrugs off the fiscal cliff and outperforms the G-10 nations.
Lawmakers are trying to avert the fiscal cliff, a collection of $607 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect at the beginning of 2013 unless lawmakers take action, to prevent a short-term shock to the economy and reach an agreement on long-term deficit reduction.
Sterling strengthened after a report confirmed Britain’s economy exited a double-dip recession in the third quarter. The pound added 0.3 percent to 80.73 pence per euro. The U.K. currency was little changed at $1.6025 after rising to $1.6056, the highest since Nov. 2.
Asian stocks gained for a fifth day after European finance ministers cut borrowing costs for Greece and gave the indebted nation more time to repay rescue loans. Shares also rose after profit growth at Chinese industrial companies accelerated last month.
Nikkei 225 9,423.3 +34.36 +0.37%
S&P/ASX 200 4,456.83 +32.64 +0.74%
Shanghai Composite 1,991.17 -26.30 -1.30%
CSL Ltd., Australia’s biggest drugmaker, surged 6.9 percent in Sydney to a record after saying it expects profit growth of about 20 percent.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, paced gains among raw-material companies as copper prices rose.
China Railway Construction Corporation Ltd. advanced 1.1 percent in Hong Kong.
European stocks advanced after euro- region finance ministers eased the terms of aid for Greece and cleared the way for a loan instalment in December.
European finance ministers eased the terms on emergency aid for the Mediterranean nation. In the latest bid to keep the 17- nation euro-area intact, the ministers cut the rates on bailout loans, suspended interest payments for a decade on money from the temporary rescue fund, gave the country more time to repay, and engineered a Greek bond buyback. Greece was also cleared to get a 34.4 billion-euro ($44.7 billion) loan instalment in December.
In the U.K., consumer spending and exports propelled the economy to its fastest growth since 2007 in the third quarter. Gross domestic product rose 1 percent from the second quarter, the same as reported on Oct. 25, the Office for National Statistics said today in London.
National benchmark indexes rose in 13 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 Index was little changed, while Germany’s DAX Index rose 0.6 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index gained 0.2 percent.
Remy Cointreau surged 6.4 percent to 88.51 euros for the biggest gain in the Stoxx 600. The company said first-half adjusted operating profit from current operations rose to 141.5 million euros, beating analyst estimates for 137.3 million euros. Remy Cointreau said second-half growth will be more moderate than in the first half. Still, it confirmed its target to “substantially” lift annual earnings.
Galp lost 5.9 percent to 11.50 euros. Eni said late yesterday that it’s selling 49.8 million Galp shares. They are being offered at 11.48 euros to 11.73 euros apiece, according to the terms obtained.
Despite some optimistic messages (data on orders for durable goods and housing price index from S & P / Case-Shiller, and a report on the index of consumer confidence), the major U.S. stock indexes have failed to show a positive trend.
The lack of progress in addressing the "fiscal cliff" keeps investors from buying, causing them to ignore the positive macroeconomic reports.
Today, their concerns about the problem of "fiscal cliff" expressed the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which warned that in the absence of solutions the U.S. economy will return to recession.
Time goes by, but on November 16, when a meeting of the leaders of Congress and President Obama did not receive any new information on a looming problem. This adds uncertainty and nervousness in the markets.
This week, Congress returns to Washington, the discussion and the search for a compromise between taxes and spending will continue.
Most of the components of the index remained in negative territory DOW (22 of 30). Fell more than the rest in the stock price Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, -2.86%), leading stock Intel (INTC, +0.60%).
Sector of the S & P declined mainly. Showed a small increase in the sector conglomerates (0.1%). Maximum loss showed basic materials sector (-0.9%).
The food industry Ralcorp Holdings jumped by 26.5% due to the news of his impending takeover industry giant ConAgra Foods.
Manufacturer of high-tech glass Corning went to plus 6.9% after raised its forecast for shipments of glass for LCD-screens.
At the close:
Dow 12,878.13 -89.24 -0.69%
Nasdaq 2,967.79 -8.99 -0.30%
S & P 500 1,398.94 -7.35 -0.52%
00:30 Australia Construction Work Done Quarter III -0.2% +2.2% +1.7%
The yen rose against all of its 16 major peers as Asian stocks dropped and a struggle among U.S. lawmakers to reach budget consensus boosted demand for safe- haven assets. Japan’s currency advanced to a one-week high versus the dollar after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he is “disappointed” in the lack of progress in discussions to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff. “We only have a couple weeks to get something done, so we have to get away from the happy talk” and do “specific things,” Reid told reporters yesterday. U.S. lawmakers are trying to avert a collection of $607 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect at the beginning of 2013 to prevent a short-term shock to the economy and reach an agreement on long-term deficit reduction.
Demand for the euro was limited amid signs the economic growth in Europe is faltering. In Germany, the region’s biggest economy, the unemployment rate probably held at 6.9 percent in November, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data are released tomorrow. The rate was unchanged last month after climbing to 6.9 percent in September, matching the level in November 2011.
Official data in Italy on Nov. 30 may show the nation’s jobless rate rose to 10.9 percent in October, the highest on record in figures going back to 2004.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair fell to yesterday's lows.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6000.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell by updating week's low.
ECB ready to undertake OMTs if country applies for program
ECB supervision operational in 2014, legal framework in place 2013
All EMU banks should be covered by single supervisor
Change % Change Last
Oil $87.19 +0.01 +0.01%
Gold $1,741.00 -1.30 -0.07%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,423.3 +34.36 +0.37%
S&P/ASX 200 4,456.83 +32.64 +0.74%
Shanghai Composite 1,991.17 -26.30 -1.30%
FTSE 100 5,799.71 +12.99 +0.22%
CAC 40 3,502.13 +1.19 +0.03%
DAX 7,332.33 +40.30 +0.55%
Dow 12,878.13 -89.24 -0.69%
Nasdaq 2,967.79 -8.99 -0.30%
S&P 500 1,398.94 -7.35 -0.52%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2941 -0,23%
GBP/USD $1,6020 -0,03%
USD/CHF Chf0,9303 +0,27%
USD/JPY Y82,16 +0,10%
EUR/JPY Y106,31 -0,15%
GBP/JPY Y131,58 +0,05%
AUD/USD $1,0445 -0,18%
NZD/USD $0,8205 -0,15%
USD/CAD C$0,9944 +0,11%
00:30 Australia Construction Work Done Quarter III -0.2% +2.2% +1.7%
09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y October +3.0% +2.8%
13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) November 0.0% -0.1%
13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) November +2.0% +1.9%
15:00 U.S. New Home Sales October 389 387
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -1.5
17:15 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks -
17:15 U.S. FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks -
19:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book November
23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y October +0.4% -0.7%
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